| /LATimes |
Momentum is the key in any
Oscar race, and after back-to-back nominations announcements from the Screen
Actors Guild (SAG) and Golden Globe Awards, many films and actors find
themselves on a necessarily-upward track.
Since our last post, the
American Film Institute (AFI) announced their picks for the top 11 films of the
year; AFI is a relatively-solid Oscar bellwether, and has provided our first
non-critic top 10 (or 11, in this case) list to take into consideration. So,
with the AFI, SAG and Golden Globe nominees out there, let’s get right into it.
First off, our usual
suspects have fared exceedingly well. Boyhood,
Birdman and The Imitation Game were all cited by AFI, earned a Best Ensemble
nod from SAG and a Best Picture nod from the Golden Globes. All three also had
multiple actors nominated at both SAG and the Globes. The news was just as good
for The Theory of Everything, with
the notable caveat that it was ineligible at AFI because its producing team is
not American-dominant (as opposed to, apparently, Imitation). So nothing but good news – and nothing surprising – on
those fronts.
This was a big test week for
Selma, and the end result is a bumpy
ride with a (very) strong landing. It got its AFI mention, but Paramount’s
apparent bewilderment at the film’s success meant it couldn’t get screeners for
SAG together in time; it was shunned, much in the same way that eventual Oscar
heavyweights Django Unchained and The Wolf of Wall Street have been in
recent years. Even so, no film since 1995 has won the Oscar for Best Picture
without a SAG ensemble nomination; considering there’s an angle for Selma to go all the way, this was a
notable setback. But then came the Golden Globes – nominations Best Picture
(Drama), Best Director for Ms. Ava DuVernay, Best Actor for David Oyelowo and
Best Original Song for John Legend’s “Glory” – and the film has come roaring
back. It joins Boyhood, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel (more on that in a minute) as the only
films to earn Picture and Director nominations. Moreover, only it and Boyhood are the Drama contenders –
considered the real Best Pic contenders, as history indicates – to compete in
Director as well.
The Hollywood Foreign Press
Association (HFPA), who only a few years ago flung directing and acting
nominations at The Ides of March
simply because of George Clooney’s starpower, have suddenly gotten their act
together. Last year, they cited 19 of 20 eventual acting Oscar nominees – and
the only one they missed, Jonah Hill, was cited by exactly nobody else – and,
in particular, were the only major organization to nominate eventual Oscar
nominees Alexander Payne (directing, for Nebraska)
and Sally Hawkins (supporting actress, for Blue
Jasmine). The Globes may be a small, random collection of journalists that
has built its own profile, but at this point, its influence is undeniable, and
their choices feel more on-point and relevant by the year.
With that in mind, their selections
this year do demonstrate some weaknesses for The Imitation Game and The
Theory of Everything. The fact is, these films are helmed by small-time
filmmakers without much of a reputation; their films are decently-reviewed
awards plays competing against flashier indie fare and bigger-budget studio
glut. The HFPA clearly liked both films, but neither made it into Director,
which could emerge as a distressing theme. DuVernay has become the subject of a
delicious awards season narrative (and, again, she’s a very respected American
filmmaker with a breakout hit), while both Birdman
and Boyhood have the advantage of
coming from Oscar-nominated veterans. Argo
aside, winning Best Picture is awfully difficult without a corresponding
nomination for your director. And, at this point, James Marsh seems like a
longshot for The Theory of Everything
and Morten Tyldum a bubble-contender for The
Imitation Game. That’s something to look out for, and the news going into
next week is thus best for Boyhood, Selma
and Birdman.
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| /HuffPost |
Hope appeared to be lost for
Grand Budapest Hotel when AFI
dismissed it – even with Theory’s ineligibility – but the Wes Anderson
spring release has had a cracking few days. It was nominated for SAG ensemble,
notable for a couple reasons: one, no Wes Anderson film has ever been nominated
by SAG before despite frequently-excellent and deep ensembles; and two, it got
in over several Oscar contenders thought to have a better shot, like Unbroken, Into the Woods (SAG even nominated Nine…) and Gone Girl. And
the HFPA just went nuts for it this morning: it expectedly competes in Best
Actor (Ralph Fiennes) and Picture for Comedy, but who saw its Screenplay and
Director nominations coming? Only twice in the past five years has a Golden
Globe nominee for Best Director not made it to Oscar’s Best Picture list; and
they’re Clint Eastwood, who just missed out with Invictus, and that aforementioned Ides of March fiasco. So things are looking a lot better, and it
should easily maintain the momentum with the Critics’ Choice Awards’
nominations announcement on Monday.
This year’s Best Picture
race features a long list of maybe-maybe-not contenders, but the state of the
race remains profoundly malleable. Foxcatcher,
with AFI and Globe nods for Best Picture and multiple individual SAG
nominations, has come on stronger than expected. Into the Woods was a Golden Globe lock (they nominated Nine and Burlesque) and AFI
had a lot of room, but its SAG omission is a definite warning sign. Gone Girl’s disastrous week – snubbed by
AFI and SAG – was quelled mildly by a decent Globe showing, with surprising mentions
for its director (David Fincher) and screenplay (Gillian Flynn), even if it
still couldn’t crack Best Picture and remains on the outside. I was surprised Interstellar hit AFI, but it’s been
exactly nowhere (aside from a Globe nod for Hans Zimmer’s score) since; the
same, more surprisingly, goes for American
Sniper and Unbroken (Whiplash too, but it wasn’t a SAG or
Golden Globe movie anyway). For Angelina Jolie’s player, this was a rough one:
Universal campaigned hard for Unbroken,
which has a big enough cast for SAG and Jolie’s sufficient star-power for the
HFPA (they nominated her for The Tourist).
It got nowhere, especially jarring in areas where it really should have
competed, given Jolie’s history with the organization. Is it even a probable
nominee at this point?
And while we’re on the topic
of momentum, there’s a building tide in Best Actor and Actress. In the former,
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) very
surprisingly fitted into both SAG and the Globes; in the latter, Jennifer
Aniston’s rigorous work on the circuit for Cake
paid off with both organizations as well. Both were considered relative
outsiders, but Aniston’s TV cred likely helped her out at SAG and her A-list
status at HFPA. In any other year, it might not mean much, but this category
has such a gaping hole beyond its top four contenders that Aniston’s unique
credentials and now precursor nominations might just be enough to go all the
way. She’s the safest bet, at any rate. And Best Actor looks mighty crowded
right now. Michael Keaton, Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne appear
secure; Steve Carell’s TV friends likely helped him out at SAG, but his Golden
Globe nod is notable and proves he’s got a real shot at this. For David
Oyelowo, he didn’t have much of a hope at SAG – and as Leonardo DiCaprio and
Christian Bale would attest based on last year alone, that’s fine – and so his
Golden Globe recognition keeps him in the thick of it along with Carell and
Gyllenhaal. I caution pundits not to forget about Timothy Spall, who might pop
up on Monday with Critics’ Choice and is sure to figure into BAFTA. Lots of
wild cards here, and the final five might end up surprising more than a few
people.
That’s where we are right
now, and it’s where we’ll stay until the guilds weigh in next month. At this
point, general intrigue and question marks appear magnified. As for who’s out
front for Best Picture, Boyhood
remains the only film to check every necessary box, with Selma, Imitation Game and
maybe even Birdman nipping at its
heels. We’ll see how the race tightens in January, but for now, the predictions list has been appropriately updated.