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| /Weinstein Company |
Even if the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) made some inspired choices for their 2014 awards, including several on-the-bubble contenders, Boyhood expectedly dominated, winning Best Picture, Director (Richard Linklater) and Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette).
The film is easily the year’s most critically-acclaimed,
and was considered a shoo-in for the big award at the very least. Ditto
Arquette and, in Supporting Actor, J.K. Simmons for Whiplash – the two have been the heavily-handicapped favorites in
their respective categories for the Oscars, and today’s wins will do little to
change that.
Otherwise, however, NYFCC went against the grain and made
some choices that may or may not have a substantial impact on the Oscar race
going forward. Completely absent from the winners’ list were critical favorites
Birdman and Selma, along with Oscar heavyweights The Imitation Game and The
Theory of Everything. It’s worth noting that since 2003 – as in, the past
11 years – only two Best Picture Oscar winners went home empty-handed at NYFCC.
Even still, Argo was the runner-up
for Picture and Director, and Crash
was a critical misfire that snuck in to win a bizarre, anomalous year (one
could also dub Argo’s win as a
special case, as Ben Affleck was not even nominated for Director). That news is good for Selma, which itself was a runner-up in Best Picture, Actor and likely other categories whose results have not been disclosed. For Birdman, however, the film didn't even compete, nor did Best Actor contender Michael Keaton (Edward Norton, the only other real Supporting Actor contender, placed second to Simmons).
So that’s not great news for Birdman, but it’s
excellent for Boyhood, considering it’s
the only film cited by NYFCC that has a reasonable chance at victory. In an
exceedingly-strong Best Actor category, Mr.
Turner’s Timothy Spall somehow pulled through (over Oscar heavyweights David Oyelowo of Selma and Eddie Redmayne of Theory of Everything, as well as, delightfully, Alfred Molina of Love Is Strange) – a big boost for his Oscar
chances, considering he also won Cannes – and in an exceedingly-weak category,
Marion Cotillard pulled through as Best Actress for both Two Days, One Night and The Immigrant. Julianne Moore, fully expected to win the Oscar at this point for Still Alice, was a runner-up along with Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Beyond the Lights and Belle). Immigrant also won Cinematography, and in perhaps the most
surprising decision of all, The Grand
Budapest Hotel mowed over several top Oscar contenders to snag
Screenplay. It should be noted that the last four winners of Screenplay have
been nominated for Best Picture, an area Budapest
has hovered around as a maybe-maybe-not contender.
So that’s all good. The fact that The Immigrant also won Cinematography indicates there’s more
support out there for this film (which we loved) than originally expected, and
it’s reasonable to think that Weinstein might put some weight behind it to get
it cited in a few categories come Oscar-time. For Spall, again, he’s competing
in a very deep category that includes anywhere from three to five locks,
depending on who you ask. His win here demonstrates he can hang with the best
of them – but just last year, Robert Redford pulled through in a similarly competitive
race before being passed over by the Academy. As for Cotillard, she’s really an
Oscar longshot; her win here very closely resembles Rachel Weisz’s jaw-dropping
triumph for The Deep Blue Sea in
2012. While Weisz couldn’t translate it into a nomination – and she really
deserved one – she did wind up having a substantial place on the circuit,
earning recognition from several lower-profile critics’ groups, not to mention
an unexpected Golden Globe nod. With Best Actress more anemic than 2012, I’ll
hold hope that Cotillard’s fantastic work will get its due.
As for where the race is? Tomorrow, National Board of
Review (NBR) will release their winners. It’s a strange body that doesn’t
really have much impact, but they did give Best Picture to Her, providing our first indication that
the film was a serious Best Picture contender. To guess any film from Boyhood to Birdman to The Imitation Game
to Selma would be appropriate, since
the group is small and their taste, historically, has been all over the place.
Again, don’t chalk too much up to who they cite as Best Picture – but inaugural
mentions for Selma or The Imitation Game will definitely boost
their status as potential frontrunners.
Since I’ve last written, Unbroken reviews have dropped and they’re not very good – The
Telegraph went so far as to say that it’s awards narrative has been “misleading”
– but there’s a big campaign push waiting in the wings, and most seem to think
a Best Pic nod is within reach. The
Imitation Game has performed spectacularly at the box office, even if its
critical acclaim remains below-the-line. Birdman,
Foxcatcher and The Theory of Everything continue to play well as they expand their
runs, while blockbusters Gone Girl and
Interstellar are making up for weak
reception from the Academy with robust commercial numbers. Selma, Whiplash and Boyhood dominated the Independent Spirit
Awards, especially important for Selma
as few reviews are out and it’s yet to be released. Into the Woods has screened (reviews embargoed) to a decidedly mixed
reaction, and the general consensus seems to dictate that it won’t be much of a
player for Best Picture (though a select few would disagree). There’s also American Sniper, neither a critical hit
nor in theaters, so chatter on the Clint Eastwood pic is very quiet right now.
As for serious Best Picture contenders, that only leaves Grand Budapest, which got a nice boost today and hopefully can
continue to build momentum in the coming weeks.
So, in short, the race is very muddled at this point, with
maybe six films – Selma, Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game,
The Theory of Everything and
less-assuredly Whiplash – sitting
comfortably for Best Picture nominations, and seven others fighting for the
last three-four spots. The predictions list has been thoroughly updated to account
for the many shifts noted here, but in general, the picture remains cloudy.
List of winners
Director: Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Actor: Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner (in the mix: David Oyelowo for Selma; Alfred Molina for Love Is Strange; and Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything
Actress: Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night AND The Immigrant (in the mix: Julianne Moore for Still Alice and Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Beyond the Lights AND Belle)
Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash (runner-up: Edward Norton for Birdman)
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood
Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Non-Fiction Film: Citizenfour
Foreign-Language Film: Ida
First Feature: The Babadook
Cinematography: The Immigrant
**To be updated with runner-ups