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| /Indiewire |
The
National Board of Review (NBR), a strange voting body made up of undisclosed
“film enthusiasts” – their term, not ours – has unveiled their winners, and has
thrown this year’s Oscar race a major curveball by naming A Most Violent Year the Best Picture of the year.
In
many cases, NBR should not be taken seriously at all as an Oscar
prognosticator. Last year, Will Forte (Nebraska)
and Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
won Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, respectively; neither was
even in the conversation for a nomination by the time January had come around.
They also awarded Best Actress to Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks), who narrowly missed out on an Oscar nod herself.
But
last year, they did manage to put critical darling Her on the map in a big way, by giving it its top award. Indeed,
until that point, few envisioned the film as a serious awards player. It went
on to win Screenplay and compete in Best Picture, Production Design and other
categories at the Oscars. The NBR is a sizable – if, again, anonymous – group;
their recognition of an under-the-radar critical darling like Her or Violent Year indicates a level of passion necessary for a film to
compete with the Academy. Consider this rather startling statistic: every NBR
Best Picture since 2001 has gone on to Oscar nominations in the same category,
including in years 2002-2008 when the Academy only included five films. So
that’s very good news for A Most
Violent Year, a terrific film from J.C. Chandor that we had a hunch might
have a shot. Now, it’s clear that it has a chance, at the very least.
But
below the line, don’t think too much of these awards. Clint Eastwood won Best
Director for American Sniper, an
on-the-bubble Oscar contender in a number of major categories. In 2008,
Eastwood’s Changeling was cited among
NBR’s top 10 pictures of the year; in 2009, he won Best Director for Invictus and again the film was placed
in the top 10; in 2010, his maligned Hereafter
was included in the top 10; and in 2011, even his panned J.
Edgar found a slot. None of these films competed in Best Director or
Picture at the Oscars, let alone win. Moreover, many of them were critically
reviled and not at all serious Oscar contenders. In other words, if American Sniper wasn’t released this
year, a good bet would have been to consider his early 2014 stinker Jersey Boys as a major NBR threat.
That’s how much NBR likes Eastwood, and consequentially, that’s how little this
award really matters. He’s still in contention for an Oscar nod, but has
received absolutely no lift-off from this victory.
The
inclusion of Gone Girl, considered a
Best Pic longshot by many, was also expected; David Fincher has won the NBR directing
prize twice, for The Curious Case of
Benjamin Button and The Social
Network, even though he’s without an Oscar. But there may be something to
Paul Thomas Anderson winning Adapted Screenplay for Inherent Vice, and the film itself being recognized in the top 10:
neither his Best Picture nominee There
Will Be Blood nor bubble contender The
Master received anything from NBR. Vice
has been completely written-off by more than a couple pundits, but after areportedly-strong showing at NYFCC and now doing well again here, it’s built
some momentum and might be a surprise player (along with Violent Year). As for the other “surprise inclusions,” don’t think
much of them – Fury gives them a
chance to get Brad Pitt in the room with Angelina Jolie (Unbroken made the top 10, again unimportantly); Nightcrawler is one of those conceptual auteur-driven
outsiders the group likes to recognize, as they’ve done with Prisoners, Looper and Drive in
recent years; and, for whatever reason, this group really liked The LEGO Movie. For reference: this
group nominated The Secret Life of Walter
Mitty last year.
What
about what didn’t make the cut? Supposedly-safe Best Picture contenders Selma, The Theory of Everything and Whiplash
were all left off, along with Foxcatcher,
Into the Woods and Interstellar. In the past three years,
only five-six NBR contenders have been nominated for Best Picture at the
Oscars. And given that we all but know that Boyhood,
Birdman and The Imitation Game will be nominated – and that, to varying
degrees, American Sniper, Unbroken, Gone Girl, and A Most Violent
Year (and Inherent Vice, maybe?)
are in the mix – there are really only seven-eight possibilities listed
here. So, fans of the films not mentioned today, don’t fret. Best Picture locks
America Hustle, Captain Phillips, Life of Pi and
Moneyball (no, they don’t much care
for Bennett Miller) have been left off in the past three years alone.
That
being said, only two films in the past 20 years have won Best Picture without a
corresponding top 10 placement from NBR, which indicates trouble for Selma. The film’s very-late entrance
into the derby may have something to do with its absence here – its “Freedom of
Expression” award indicates that they wanted to give it something – but,
even so, the film is facing some hurdles. Due to eligibility issues, it won’t be
competing at WGA, and it won’t be able to get screeners out in time to SAG
members, which means it will likely underperform at those awards as The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle both did last year. Selma is lacking some core momentum
stops and, in general, its victory narrative is a little shakier right now.
That being said, films like Hustle
easily competed for the win at the Oscars and their NBR absence had nothing to
do with their eventual defeats – Life of
Pi managed a Best Director win despite it only two years ago. So the
situation hasn’t worsened for Selma,
so to speak, but its absence here indicates a relatively rough week for it, in
awards-terms (that the film competed at NYFCC at least demonstrates it will
have critical support).
Julianne
Moore’s march to victory has begun with wins at NBR and the Gotham Awards, but
otherwise, the acting winners (for the most part) aren’t even assured nominees. Jessica Chastain is
on the bubble for A Most Violent Year
(she won Best Supporting Actress), and Oscar Isaac, our Best Actor champ here,
is on the outside in his corresponding Oscar race. Isaac tied with Michael
Keaton, a very likely Oscar nominee whose chances for winning have only been
increased (and marginally, at that) because he also won Gotham last night.
Edward Norton’s win here evens out his battle to the finish line with Whiplash’s J.K. Simmons – but given that
the NBR didn’t take to Whiplash at
all, consider Simmons still comfortably out-front.
So,
to sum it all up: welcome to the Oscar race, A Most Violent Year. This year’s Best Picture race is now even more
expanded, with even fewer locks.