2014 Oscar Predictions

Updated: 01/09/2014

/IFC

DGA AWARDS: Nominations announced Jan. 13

1.   Richard Linklater for Boyhood
2.   Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman
3.   Clint Eastwood for American Sniper
4.   Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game
5.   Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
6.   David Fincher for Gone Girl
7.   Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
8.   Ava DuVernay for Selma
9.   Dan Gilroy for Nighrcrawler


ACADEMY AWARDS: Nominations announced Jan. 15

BEST PICTURE

1.   Boyhood – It's dominated the critics' circuit and has popped up on every necessary precursor list. Assuming the guilds show it sufficient love next month, it's the absolute frontrunner.

2.   The Imitation Game – Here's the thing: The Imitation Game is not going to win Best Director. It's unfathomable to imagine a scenario in which there's a Picture/Director split three years in a row... considering it's never happened. 

3.   Birdman – If it wins SAG ensemble, it'll be in the conversation for the win.

4.   The Theory of Everything – It's been recognized everywhere necessary so far; it appears safe.

5.   Whiplash – PGA recognition for a small indie like this indicates it's all but sure to go all the way

6.   The Grand Budapest Hotel – One of the very few to earn substantial love from SAG, PGA, the Globes and Critics' Choice alike. Time to stop underestimating.
7.   Selma – The PGA snub was a shocker. Screeners were late, as they have been, but we still have no indication this one has industry support. At the very least, not even making the top 10 on a preferential ballot indicates a win is probably out of reach.
8.   American Sniper – Red hot right now, breaking box office records and hitting the guilds surprisingly well.

9.   Nightcrawler – Support has been popping up for Nightcrawler left and right, and it might be a stronger player than anyone's expecting.
10.   Foxcatcher – Broad support across diverse groups indicates that this one has legs. But is it too dark?
11.   Gone Girl – The primary challenge for Gone Girl is that guild love similarly went to Fincher's last modestly-reviewed box office hit, Dragon Tattoo. But it's faring well right now.
12.   Mr. Turner – Expect a big lift from BAFTA; could it fill the year's Philomena slot? Reviews are through the roof for this one.
13.   Unbroken – Ouch. PGA snub is likely too significant for this blockbuster to overcome.
14.   Into the Woods – With surprising and telling snubs from both SAG and PGA, it looks out of it at this point. 

BEST DIRECTOR

1.   Richard Linklater for Boyhood – Globe nod + Critics' Choice nod + Best Picture frontrunner, pt. 1.
2.   Alejandro González-Inarritu for Birdman – Globe nod + Critics' Choice nod + Best Picture frontrunner, pt. 2.

3.   Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game – The Globes and the Critics' Choice passed him over, even though they liked his film. Can Tyldum stand out in a crowd of big names?
4.   Clint Eastwood for American Sniper – I'm expecting the DGA to nod him, which is normally a good omen.

5.   Damien Chazelle for Whiplash – Remember when Benh Zeitlan got in over Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck and Tom Hooper for Beasts of the Southern Wild? Chazelle has a similar appeal, only his competition is a lot thinner.
6.   Ava DuVernay for Selma – Her film needs to rally, stat.
7.   Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel – His movie is faring so well right now, and his hitherto absence in this category so well-known, that I could easily imagine him surprising.

8.   Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher – It’s the type of cool, atmospheric film that could get Miller back in here for a second time. Given its auteur sensibilities, DGA recognition will be critical.

9.   David Fincher for Gone Girl – He'll need to hit DGA, which is very likely; the movie needs to maintain its momentum.

BEST ACTOR

1.   Michael Keaton for Birdman – He's working the circuit very effectively, and has been the clear early winner of the critics' circuit. He's sure to get cited everywhere he needs to, and for the foreseeable future is the category's leader.

2.   Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything – Redmayne is the frontrunner for the Golden Globe, in which case he'll establish himself as Keaton's biggest competition.
3.   Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game – Nominations across the board, but he needs a big win.
4.   Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler – He's hit every single precursor nomination, and at this point, underestimating him would be foolish.

5.   David Oyelowo for Selma – He's on very shaky ground, seeing as he's without industry recognition. We're assuming the film will fare better with Oscar, but that's a risky bet.

6.   Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel – After getting in with BAFTA and the Critics' Choice, and with the movie skyrocketing in terms of Oscar chances, might Fiennes be the obvious alternate?
7.   Steve Carell for Foxcatcher – All over the map in terms of where he's getting recognized... and in what category. A question mark until nomination day, that's for sure.

8.   Bradley Cooper for American Sniper – The film needs to pick up heat for him to have a shot.
9.   Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner – Without a BAFTA nod, his hopes appear dashed.

BEST ACTRESS

1.   Julianne Moore for Still Alice – Nothing is stopping her at this point.

2.   Reese Witherspoon for Wild – Strong in a thin, thinning category.

3.   Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything – Strong in a thin, thinning category.

4.   Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl – Strong-ish in a thin, thinning category (she's not on the circuit, unlike many others).

5.   Jennifer Aniston for Cake – Her TV cred got her into SAG. Her starpower got her through at the Globes. And suddenly, she's the clear choice here.

6.   Amy Adams for Big Eyes – BAFTA nod affirms she's the alternate. But that might not matter much.
7.   Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night – This is a BAFTA-friendly role. She wasn't nominated.
8.   Hilary Swank for The Homesman – SAG cited her for Conviction, but not for this...? She's too far on the outside right now, for such a small film.

9.   Emily Blunt for Into the Woods – She needed to build on her HFPA recognition with more substantial nominations.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1.   J.K. Simmons for Whiplash – This powerhouse turn remains, at this late stage, uncontested.

2.   Edward Norton for Birdman – Norton’s performance is big enough where, if Birdman flies this awards season, the actor could be in contention for the win.

3.   Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher – He's been cited everywhere, withstanding varying reaction to the film. Looks like he's in.

4.   Ethan Hawke for Boyhood – The tertiary Boyhood player has hit every necessary precursor.

5.   Robert Duvall for The Judge – SAG, Globe and Critics' Choice recognition implies he's the fifth choice. But a BAFTA snub indicates he's on the rocks.
6.   Steve Carell for Foxcatcher – Unsure how this would work; BAFTA dropped him down and it makes sense for his chances.
7.   Josh Brolin for Inherent Vice – Remains that broadly-beloved performance in a film not likely to earn much attention elsewhere. Does he stand out in a thin category?
8.   Miyavi for Unbroken – At once a buzzed-about performance, he's shown up exactly nowhere.

9.   Tim Roth for Selma – Wilkinson earned mixed reviews for a substantial part, while Roth earned raves for his brief turn as George Wallace; short on screen time, but big on impact.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1.   Patricia Arquette for Boyhood – There’s no stopping her at this point.

2.   Emma Stone for Birdman – With critics' awards, the Birdman tied and nominations everywhere she needed, I'm liking Stone's chances here.
3.   Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game – Knightley’s work in the film has earned uniformly solid reviews, but not much beyond that. She doesn't have all that much to do, which might not rouse the passion needed to crack the race.
4.   Meryl Streep for Into the Woods – The BAFTA snub is worth considering, but only to a point: last year, the organization similarly snubbed her for August: Osage County.
5.   Rene Russo for Nightcrawler – Her BAFTA nomination indicates Nightcrawler's rapid ascension, and she very well might be the missing piece to this puzzling category.

6.   Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year – Without BAFTA or SAG recognition, she's without any indication of industry support. Is the movie too small?
7.   Laura Dern for Wild – Nothing so far for Dern, but never say never. The fifth slot is open, and the Academy's tastes are ever-differing from SAG.
8.   Tilda Swinton for Snowpiercer – Swinton has been a hot name on the critics' circuit, and was notably recognized by the BFCA. She's a highly-respected actress that could rouse enough passion.

9.   Naomi Watts for St. Vincent – I'm not sure how, exactly, this broad performance in the underperforming comedy snuck into SAG. At the very least, that kind of nomination puts her into the conversation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1.   Boyhood (Richard Linklater) – It's where Linklater will unquestionably win an Oscar.
2.   Birdman (Alejandro G. Inarritu et al.) – Stuffed with blistering satire and profundity, Birdman's screenplay is type A Oscar bait.
3.   The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness) – If Moonrise Kingdom could get in, then Grand Budapest is reasonably safe for a writing nod.
4.   Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy) – With Whiplash out of the way, here's the category's resident debut screenplay. And it's been honored a fair amount so far.
5.   Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman) – This is a director's film hanging on the edge, in terms of Academy appeal. It's chances here depend entirely on how the film as a whole fares. WGA recognition was a good start.
6.   Selma (Paul Webb) – Tough. The film was ineligible at WGA, and is embroiled in a credit controversy that doesn't help matters. It's rare for a Best Picture frontrunner to miss out on screenplay, though (even The Artist got in).
7.   Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh) – He needed a BAFTA nomination.
8.   Top Five (Chris Rock) – Consider recent screenplay nominees Borat or Bridesmaids. The Oscars don't love out-and-out comedies, but when they do, this is where they get recognized.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1.   The Imitation Game (Graham Moore) – It's the only Best Picture frontrunner competing on the adapted side. At the very least, a nomination is assured.
2.   The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten) – Again, the category is thin on actual Oscar contenders, and Theory has been playing well across diverse groups.
3.   Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) – The film was campaigned in original and even the studio was shocked when news broke that it was competing here. As long as confusion doesn't mar its chances at a nomination (and the category is very weak; that's next-to-impossible), it'll be in it for the win.
4.   Gone Girl (Gillian Flynn) – Regardless of how heavy Gone Girl winds up as an Oscar player, this category is weak enough, and Flynn well-known and respected enough, for the film to get recognized here without much trouble.
5.   American Sniper (Jason Hall) – An Oscar player that could easily get swept in here. WGA recognition proves it's got legs, even in a category one wouldn't expect it to be as strong in.
6.   Wild (Nick Hornby) – Hornby has an Oscar nomination and is well-regarded novelist. Wild hasn't been a big player beyond its leading lady, but Hornby's got a good shot.
7.   Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson) – You'd think he has a solid shot given the competition, but he wasn't even nominated for The Master. Inherent Vice might just be too weird.
8.   Into the Woods (James Lapine) – The source material is heavily-respected; it's not hard to imagine this squeaking in if voters go for the film.