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| Selma takes on prescient themes of voting rights and peaceful protest (Paramount /EW) |
Two
major Oscar contenders were unveiled last night at the American Film Institute
(AFI) Festival, and the talk right now is deafening.
Selma,
acclaimed independent filmmaker Ava DuVernay’s Civil Rights Movement drama,
premiered first to universal, and frankly astonishing, acclaim. Not a person on
Twitter last night could deny that every word sent the film’s way was rapturously
enthusiastic among critics, journalists and casual viewers alike. As Martin
Luther King Jr., David Oyelowo (The
Butler) turned heads to the point where he very well may have slotted himself
into the impossibly-competitive Best Actor race. Awards bloggers have launched
the film in their predictions; it now consistently ranks in the top five among
mainstays Boyhood, The Imitation Game, Birdman and sight-unseen Unbroken.
DuVernay is now a top contender for a Best Director (and original screenplay)
nomination, and if Anjelina Jolie’s Unbroken
lands even half as forcefully, we could very well be looking at our first-ever
lineup of directors featuring two women (imagine that!).
Pundits
were weary of Selma, initially poised
to show a “30 Minute Presentation” in lieu of the entire film. DuVernay and
producer Oprah Winfrey explained that the film was unfinished, but many viewed
it as an unfortunate omen that the film wasn’t coming out all that well. On
Tuesday night, Ms. DuVernay and Ms. Winfrey began a Twitter exchange popping up
in real time on my feed – it essentially amounted to “You know what, let’s show
the whole film!” I leaned over to Andrew and said, “You know, I think Selma might be screening in full in a
few days...” Sure enough, Paramount confirmed the change the next morning, and
here we are. DuVernay still claims the film is unfinished, with critics and
journalists noting in particular the end credits were a little odd and will be
re-done. Not to fear, though – raves are abound, as critics have begun
officially weighing in and Paramount prepares to reorient their awards season
focus after the very disappointing launch of Interstellar (it failed to touch a $50 million weekend, and its
Rotten Tomatoes score is stuck in the low-to-mid 70s).
Greater
awards expectations were placed on the night’s other premiere, Clint Eastwood’s
American Sniper, but at this point
the picture is murkier. Reaction has been pretty mixed – Variety and THR quite
like it, while The Wrap and Hitfix really don’t – and, given that Unbroken is a war film expected to make
a bigger splash, that’s not great news. Awards bloggers, from Scott Feinberg to
Tim Gray to Pete Hammond, are all over this title, but they seem to be wildly
overestimating what critics think of the film. Eastwood’s last
decently-reviewed pic was 2009’s Invictus,
which earned the director exactly zero nominations. I don’t think Sniper is going to launch ahead of that
one, in terms of critical acclaim (it’s at a lowly 63 right now on Metacritic),
though pundits are really pushing a comeback narrative for the multi-Oscar
winner that might just will him into the thick of it. It should also be noted
that the film’s star, Bradley Cooper, has earned excellent notices for another
against-type turn. They’re not at the level of Oyelowo’s, and the category is
just so stacked that Cooper probably won’t be able to snag a spot, but it’s
worth mentioning that the once-hapless rom-com star has now had major
contending performances for three years running.
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| Bradley Cooper has earned great notices, once again, for his work in American Sniper (Warner Bros.) |
These
two films also contribute, and not in a good way, to the egregiously-thin slate
of supporting actress contenders. Buzz was high on both Carmen Ejogo in Selma and Sienna Miller in American Sniper; it looks like neither
have enough to work with to seriously compete (though Ejogo, in particular, has
received solid reviews). The same fate befell Jessica Chastain, who despite a
very-limited part is getting a big push for Interstellar
(reviews are much better for her in A
Most Violent Year, which Christopher Nolan is reportedly banning her from
campaigning for), and Katherine Waterston, rumored to be the Jennifer
Lawrence-type ingénue breakout of Inherent
Vice. Alas, good as critics say she was, the part isn’t substantial enough
and the film isn’t Oscar-y enough. So, in the category, we’re pretty much left
with Chastain, Patricia Arquette’s great (and at this point, near-lock to win)
performance in Boyhood; Laura Dern’s
acclaimed “extended cameo,” as many pundits have put it, in Wild; Keira Knightley’s very-sidekick
part in The Imitation Game; Emma
Stone’s very limited work in Birdman;
and Meryl Streep, whose performance has not been seen in Into the Woods but is a contender because she is, yes, Meryl
Streep. But that’s really it, unless Julianne Moore can withstand the
absence of an Oscar campaign for her acclaimed work in Maps to the Stars (very unlikely) or Ejogo can ride a Selma tidal wave.
As
for the state of the Best Picture race, there remain an inordinate amount of
question marks so late into the season. If we take the early Selma acclaim/hype as indication it’s a
safe bet (and given the fact that few reviews are out, we do so cautiously), at
this point the only in-place contenders are Boyhood,
Birdman, The Imitation Game and Selma.
Gone Girl was a box office smash, but
it’s not an overwhelming critical favorite – a significant note considering its
very auteur-ish, dark sensibilities – while Whiplash
is contending with the exact opposite reality (oh, and Interstellar has underwhelmed in both areas). The Theory of Everything looks pretty solid given that its stars
are looking good for nominations and it’s a typical Oscar-bait biopic, but
muted critical reception (70 Metacritic) is troubling. You have the chilly Foxcatcher, whose moment of truth will
come this weekend in its opening – at an 85 Metacritic, it’s stronger than most
other contenders with critics this year, and has been a consistent presence on
the circuit. If all else fails, one of the biggest success stories in both
critical acclaim and box office performance is waiting in the wings; at this
point, it’s strange that The Grand
Budapest Hotel isn’t in better shape given how well it did (early-year
releases really are a killer). Somewhere just outside these, in this pundit’s
opinion, is American Sniper and J.C.
Chandor’s low-profile critical hit A Most
Violent Year. Yet to be seen, of those that could make an impact, are only Unbroken (more likely) and Rob Marshall’s
Into the Woods (less likely). So while
the race has thinned out, it’s very unclear beyond the top three or four what’s
secure and what’s on the fringe. With Boyhood
likely to scoop up most of the critics’ awards, it will likely remain that way
until we get to top 10s from the BFCA, AFI and Golden Globes.
I
briefly touched on Best Actor, but at this point we have a very stable five:
Steve Carell, Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, David Oyelowo and Eddie
Redmayne. Each are vulnerable but relatively secure at this point. With Big Eyes set to premiere later this week
– and the acting chances of Amy Adams and Christoph Waltz unveiled in the
process – we’ll have an even clearer picture by week’s end. Updated predictions
will be posted next week; until then, it’s nice to see Selma really jolt an Oscar race that had run through a series of
disappointments. Hopefully, it can maintain the momentum.