Thursday, February 19, 2015

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Supporting acting categories

(Sony Classics)
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Neither of these categories are in a state where a few hundred words dedicated to prognostication is remotely worth it. Simmons has this one in the bag; Patricia Arquette is a no-brainer to win Best Supporting Actress.

That being said, this is a strong category that may have deserved a bit more competition than the Simmons-runaway we got. The Whiplash star is brilliantly menacing (and my personal pick) and certainly eats up a lot of screentime, but one thing I like about Best Supporting Actor this year is the variety. Norton, in Birdman, is raucously funny and brings about a dazzlingly loopy physicality. His role fades in the film, but while onscreen the actor is mesmerizingly entertaining. Ruffalo, alongside the more talked-up performances of Steve Carell and Channing Tatum, may give his best dramatic performance to date in Foxcatcher. It’s a quiet and initially mild turn that sneaks up on you: it takes a good hour to realize just how far Ruffalo has removed himself from the character, and just how carefully and immaculately he’s built up this impenetrable emotional intensity. Hawke – beyond the coldness of Foxcatcher, the propulsion of Whiplash and the fantasticality of Birdman – goes jubilantly naturalistic in Boyhood, maintaining a connective resonance and unwavering expressiveness throughout. And Duvall rounds out the category for The Judge, a movie I missed in which Duvall gives, from what I hear, a fine performance – though I’m confident it wouldn’t be my pick.

Simmons has won every single precursor award of note; has an overdue reputation as a longtime character actor; and gives – and here’s the most important Oscar factor – the “biggest” performance of the bunch. In this case, it translates to the most deserving. I would have loved to see Josh Brolin compete for his brazenly strange Inherent Vice turn, or the two Selma Brits who played slimy Southerners – Tim Roth as George Wallace, and Tom Wilkinson as LBJ – with both weighty grit and unabashed amusement (and, if they could have stretched it, John Lithgow and/or Alfred Molina would be extremely deserving for Love Is Strange). But it’s a solid five, one that’s long had a predestined outcome.

Will win: J.K. Simmons
Should win: J.K. Simmons


(IFC)
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Unlike the former category, this one feels like a wasteland.

I like Knightley in The Imitation Game fine, though I struggle to understand why her nomination was such a foregone conclusion. She’s affable, charming, believable – but she’s not given much at all to work with. Stone, meanwhile, is nominated for one great Birdman scene, but I wouldn’t consider it Oscar-worthy as I would Viola Davis’ single, impactful moment in Doubt a few years back. Streep is predictably boisterous and wonderful in Into the Woods, but it’s her weakest nominated performance in quite some time. And while I love Dern, and am amazed at what she brought to her background-laden part in Wild, she’s working within an extremely limited role, and can only do so much.

Of course, I’ve yet to mention Arquette, who in this group of five is – unlike J.K. Simmons – so far ahead both in predictive terms and qualitatively that it’s a little ridiculous. The way she holds such emotional and physical control in early scenes with young kids, and so authentically plays he character's isolated emotional outbursts, maintains an intimate center for Boyhood. Really, for this category to get interesting beyond Arquette, the Academy would have needed to look outside the box. Tilda Swinton is scary-good (and scary-scary) in Snowpiercer, an utter transformation in dialect, physicality and personality. Elisabeth Moss is tartly comic and then humanely prickly in Listen Up Philip (Moss, between Mad Men and Top of the Lake and this, is making a claim for being one of the more versatile, talented American actresses working right now). Tessa Thompson takes teen angst to funny, complicated, honest levels in Dear White People, grounding a film sorely in need of a little levity. And Katherine Waterston is sultry, sexy and restrained as PTA’s vulnerable leading lady in Inherent Vice.

Unfortunately, these films were nowhere near Oscar’s radar, and so their chances were especially slim. Arquette is going to win this thing, and she’s going to deserve it. But don’t let this slate of nominees convince you that this was a weak year for the category. It just reflects voters’ frustrating reluctance to move beyond their comfort zone.

Will win: Patricia Arquette
Should win: Patricia Arquette