Monday, February 16, 2015

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Screenplay categories

(Searchlight)
Original Screenplay
Alejandro G. Inarritu et al, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

Let me preface by saying that this is a terrific category. There’s not a doubt that you’ll know, if a reader of this blog, that I like some of these choices more than others – Boyhood over Birdman; Foxcatcher over Nightcrawler; Grand Budapest for the win, pretty please? – but each of the five scripts represented here are beloved, adored and praised to the high heavens by thick blocs of some of the best minds around. It’s a good group.

The sheer conception of The Grand Budapest Hotel, going for melancholic madcap as it blasts through tonal barriers and structural standards to a degree far beyond anything Anderson has tried before, is worthy of recognition. So too is the line-for-line specificity of Boyhood, with its characters’ speak always, exceptionally particular to who, what, where, when and why. Foxcatcher, while certainly a director’s movie first, mines a distressing depth of feeling through cryptic conversation and an unbearably-slow build. Nightcrawler’s satire target is never completely on-point, but Gilroy’s script gets points simply for envisioning Louis Bloom: he’s a brilliant construct brought to horrifying life by Jake Gyllenhaal, though infused with delightful peculiarities and riveting opacity on the page beforehand.

The likely winner here is Birdman, a widely-collaborated-on script led by Alejandro G. Inarritu and the recipient of the equivalent Golden Globe. It’s a close race – Grand Budapest has triumphed with both WGA and BAFTA, not to mention a below-the-line win from NYFCC – but Birdman, as our Best Picture frontrunner, is our most probable champ here. It was ineligible with WGA, and not a hit with BAFTA – it hasn’t exactly lost anything prominent, in other words. And it’s wildly inventive. There are thematic and comedic misses in Birdman, as my review details, but it possesses an unprecedented level of ambition, and for that it deserves credit. In a subsequent space, I’ll get into my analytical and personal thoughts about Birdman’s ascendance as Best Picture frontrunner; for now, I’ll just state that there are more worthy efforts in this category, as well as some that didn’t make the cut. The Dardennes pulled off a magic trick in realism with Two Days, One Night; Ruben Ostlund’s Force Majeure evoked unnerving familiarity; Ira Sachs’ world in Love Is Strange felt comfortably lived-in by minute 90, a feat few if any films of the past year share; Leviathan managed to tell a story of epic scale and importance while keeping things intimate and humane; and Selma, for all of the kerfuffle as to who deserved credit, featured a blessedly-complex narrative about communal unity and political organization.

Nonetheless, Birdman is an appropriate choice, one certainly within the confines of acceptability (really, all of these are). Last year, American Hustle was a Best Picture contender – the only one, in fact, competing in this category. Though widely-assumed to win, the David O. Russell script fell like dominoes on the precursor circuit to Spike Jonze’s passion project Her, culminating in an Oscar loss that didn’t end up as much of a surprise. A similar thing could happen here, as Anderson – overdue, and writing stuff a little more outside of Academy tastes – is having a moment of his own. This would be the place to recognize him.

But the Her example doesn’t quite hold throughout Oscar history, and Birdman is on a tear right now. Since this is an uncharacteristically competitive year, it’s hard to know just how warm an embrace Birdman will receive from the Academy. But we only have the guilds to go on, and on that front, Birdman wiped the floor clean. It’s the rational pick.

Will win: Birdman
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel


(Sony Classics)
Adapted Screenplay
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

No one is going to point to the scripts of any of these movies, except perhaps Inherent Vice (notably, the most divisive of the bunch), as their most impressive trait. Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper may feature a much-lauded Bradley Cooper performance and equally-acclaimed action sequences, but its glossy script is razor-thin on characterization or coherence, and any deliberate ambiguity comes through in the direction; page-to-screen translation is jumbled and inefficient. The Imitation Game has a shapely exterior, conveying intriguing perspective, specific ideas and an overall intelligence – but when it comes to person-to-person interactions, the film flails with wooden dialogue (“Better bloody work!”) and simplistic expressions of motivation. The Theory of Everything all but removes the more complicated and nuanced aspects of its true-life story; a hard-hitting score and a pair of hard-hitting performances is all it needs (and uses) for emotional investment. Whiplash is great, but I’d point to every other element within the film – taut editing, (startlingly) assured direction, blistering performances, a rousing sound mix – as exemplary before its strong if unremarkable script. It’s flawed – everything beyond the mentor/mentee dynamic is a little hit-and-miss – and is given necessary texture by outside factors.

Another thing, in aggressive contrast to the original category: none of these scripts break any rules, go anywhere bold, or hit a range of emotions with punch. They’re mostly old-fashioned, sweepingly broad, consistently uninterested in language. If The Imitation Game is the best of the (non-Inherent Vice) nominees’ scripts represented here – and I think it is – then that, frankly, is a seriously sad reflection on what was chosen here (and over, might I add, Gillian Flynn’s zeitgeist-probing and fascinating-if-uneven Gone Girl script).

The last time Paul Thomas Anderson should have been nominated was in 2012, for his extraordinary work on The Master – directing to writing, it was a tour-de-force, an auteur theorist’s wet dream. He was last recognized in 2007, for his (other) masterpiece, There Will Be Blood. Unfortunately, he was chanceless against the Coen Brothers, who had No Country for Old Men in a Birdman-like position of total Academy embrace. He lost to them in directing, writing, and finally for Best Picture.

Unfortunately, this category is a wasteland, and if he weren’t entering into it with a movie so divisive and un-Academy (one which, for the record, I loved), Anderson might have finally gotten that long-overdue Oscar. Given the competition, he deserves it to a considerable degree. Inherent Vice is a film of big ideas, sprawling ambition and rich language. It juggles dozens of characters, each instantly-definable by the cadences in their speech and the circumstances in which they are situated. Anderson weaves together an emotional, nostalgia-ridden narrative by enthusiastically laying on the slapstick – he treats ostensibly-opposed emotional realms as if they are one, passionately and personally making a claim for a lost era and a faded way of life. Put shortly: it’s the kind of intellectually-engaged, deeply-felt screenplay that awards are made for.

But Inherent Vice is not going to win: it’s too weird, too off-the-radar. What will? Conventional wisdom dictated it was The Imitation Game’s to lose, but Harvey Weinstein’s awards thoroughbred hasn’t done too well. It lost BAFTA screenplay to The Theory of Everything (that was its home turf), and in general, it has been a quieter player than expected. Considering that Theory was ineligible and Whiplash competed in an alternate category, its WGA win should be taken with a substantial grain of salt.

Weirdly, I’ll be surprised if Damian Chazelle’s name is not called on Sunday night. Whiplash fits the bill – screenplay categories are where the Academy likes to honor the wunderkind – and it seems to be generating more passion among the Academy than anything else. I suppose Theory or Imitation could take it – they both have below-the-line prizes – but here is the perfect opportunity for voters to recognize Chazelle’s remarkable achievement. Considering what’s competing, it’s about as high a value as this award could have.

Will win: Whiplash
Could win: The Imitation Game
Should win: Inherent Vice