Friday, February 20, 2015

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Lead acting categories

/Radio Times
Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Going back only five years, would you have thought any of these guys would be nominated for Best Actor in 2014? Carell was busy 22 episodes a year on The Office. Cooper was fresh off of two modern (Razzie) classics, All About Steve and Valentine’s Day. Cumberbatch was an obscure British actor on the cusp of Sherlock fame. Redmayne was transitioning from theatre and modeling to film and television. And Keaton was, well, nowhere to be found.

Let’s put it another way: who would have thought that in a Best Actor Oscar lineup, Bradley Cooper would be the only one of the five to be a previous nominee? It’s been a full decade since this category featured only one former nominee – the year of the first nominations for eventual winners Philip Seymour Hoffman and Heath Ledger (Joaquin Phoenix was the returning nominee). To say the least, this is an unusually light field in terms of prestige.

But enough about superlatives. Redmayne, with SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globes under his belt, is probably going to win this thing. It’s the kind of performance the Academy loves to reward, and this is a category without a you-can’t-not-give-it-to-them performance as has been the case in the past. Qualitatively, it really depends on preference. Redmayne is not the best actor on this list, but his physical transformation as Stephen Hawking is undeniable. Keaton gets to show more range, Cooper demonstrates more levity and Carell does the polar opposite of what we’re used to him doing. I like all of these performances, but the Academy went too safe with its selections among a field perceived to be excessively-crowded. David Oyelowo’s MLK in Selma and Timothy Spall’s J.M.W. Turner in Mr. Turner left easily the most lasting impressions of the year with fiery, embodied and humane performances. Also sadly overlooked were Ralph Fiennes’ sensational comedic turn in The Grand Budapest Hotel, Jake Gyllenhaal’s exercise in lunacy in Nightcrawler and Oscar Isaac’s Pacino-esque slow-burn in A Most Violent Year. The Academy didn’t go with five bad performances, per se, but going with these five would have made for an infinitely more interesting, and dare I say more impressive, lineup.

Among the five we have to work with here, Cumberbatch would be my personal choice. His work in The Imitation Game just wrecked me, and given the material he had to work with, he did one hell of a job. Ironically, despite the fears of many that Imitation could push itself to a Best Picture win, Cumberbatch has long been low on this totem pole. If anybody can beat Redmayne, it’s certainly Keaton, who has the comeback narrative of the century. And Bradley Cooper is a wild card; on his third consecutive nomination for the smash hit American Sniper, he’ll at least disrupt the status quo. That could help Redmayne, Keaton or Cooper himself. Right now, though, it’s a fool’s game to bet against the man who played Stephen Hawking.

Will win: Eddie Redmayne
Could win: Michael Keaton
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch



(Sony Classics)
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

For every piece about how crowded Best Actor was looking, there were two about the anemic state of Best Actress. And, it’s true – I can’t quite come up with an alternate fives actresses that would make as suitable a lineup.

But Cotillard and Moore are some of our best actors working right now, each contributing (arguably) career-best performances in 2014. Cotillard went bigger in La vie en rose; Moore dug deeper in Far From Heaven. But both Two Days, One Night and Still Alice showcase these actresses at their best, in range, in impact and in authenticity. Moore is an absolute lock to win, and that fact is a great thing: she’s ridiculously overdue. I want Moore to win, though if I were checking down the best performance in this category, it’d be Cotillard in a walk – seriously, her Two Days performance is an absolute stunner by just about every measure.

Of the rest of the category: I wasn’t a big fan of the three movies represented here, but each stood out with terrific performances. They’ve earned their spots. With Witherspoon, I noted that the deafening talk around her work in Wild felt backhandedly insulting: we know she’s capable of being this good, and she didn’t surprise me all that much. But that’s not an insult. Similarly, I think a better script and more cohesive vision would have allowed Pike to land in Gone Girl with more of a thud, but she’s tremendous with the material she’s given. And Jones, who did even better work last year in a remarkably complex role as The Invisible Woman, is always a worthy candidate.

Andrew and I have both beaten the Babadook drum before, and it’s true that Essie Davis should be here. She’s so good, in fact, that even though she’s in a small-time Australian drama, she may have had a shot if the film wasn’t in the most un-Academy genre around: horror. And it’s hard not to see Mommy and lament Anne Dorval’s absence here (and yes, Mia Wasikowska in Tracks digs deeper than Witherspoon in Wild). But this category is better than it gets credit for, and may actually outrank Best Actor in terms of the quality of acting on display. Different choices can always be made, but Julianne Moore will finally triumph in a slate of solid nominees. That’s okay by me.

Will win: Julianne Moore
Should win: Marion Cotillard