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| (Fox Searchlight) |
Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Selma
Whiplash
It’s
been a long, long time – in 2014, we have an honest-to-God race for Best
Picture.
For
all of the lamenting (this blog included) about certain choices this year –
including the whitewashing of the acting nominees – you have to hand it to the
Academy. Best Picture has come down to three auteurs who have been putting out great
work for over a decade. While everyone has their preferences, it’s a pretty
wonderful thing that this year’s Oscars have developed into an overdue
love-fest for three fine cinematic artists. That doesn’t happen often.
Boyhood
has, throughout this race, been the movie that had to win and that couldn’t win.
It’s too small – but look at what he did! It’s too indie – but look at those
reviews! That it got as far as it did as a frontrunner is pretty remarkable,
since the guilds overwhelmingly weighed in against Boyhood, as it couldn’t pick up a single major win. But it’s
chugged along, and from its widely-seen Golden Globe win to a domination of the
precursor circuit, it’s proven to have what it takes. It’s demanded to be a
part of the conversation. As a longtime Oscar watcher and cinephile, I never
really thought a movie like Boyhood
could fit into both categories. But it has. It’s a remarkable cinematic
achievement that, despite the absence of a score or visual flourishes, is one
of the top Oscar contenders of 2014.
But
let’s not gush too much: Boyhood isn’t
out front right now. And more to the point, it’s losing to a movie heavily
defined by what it does with music and the camera. Birdman, the exercise in technical virtuosity, is about the least
likely movie you’d expect to dominate the relatively-older guilds. It’s
slapstick, absurd, jumbled and ambiguous – but Inarritu’s camerawork is just
flashy enough, and the field just unusual enough, for Birdman to sneak on by. Or, perhaps more specifically, it appeals
to a wider group of voters: actors, craftspeople, writers, directors and
producers. Boyhood can’t quite do
that.
It’s
why Birdman will probably win. I
wouldn’t say it’s more accessible, and there’s not a general reputation out
there that it’s “better,” per se. But its reach is immense, and Boyhood’s simply isn’t.
The
third prong to this Best Picture race is not, as everyone speculated a few
months ago, Selma, or as everyone
feared until a few weeks ago, The
Imitation Game – rather, it’s The
Grand Budapest Hotel, which hauled in more BAFTAs than any other film, has
several guild awards under its belt and has, like Birdman, an expansive reach. Grand
Budapest was released in March but wasn’t taken especially seriously as a
potential nominee until its cast was nominated by SAG. And yet, here it
is, with Wes Anderson’s grandest accomplishment to date recognized more than
any other film. And that Anderson has finally, finally received
recognition for his directing (and in Best Picture) is a thing of beauty. It’s
still Wes Anderson, and it’s too weird to probably win. But it’s a wild card,
and could thrust this race in any number of directions. In case you weren’t
aware, both Andrew and I are – like most people – in love with this movie, and
it deserves whatever it gets.
Aside
from The Theory of Everything, every
contender here has floated about as potential winner. I mentioned Selma, whose rapid ascent was as curious
as its immediate fall. The Imitation Game
never struck the chord pundits expected it to (though it did well enough to get
a directing nomination). American Sniper’s
mega-success hasn’t translated to increased awards exposure, as it’s been quiet
on the guild circuit. And Whiplash is
a name I keep hearing, floated about as pundits seem surprised by the level of
passion voters have for this film. Again, like Grand Budapest, it’s more of a wild card for the race than a
serious player for the award itself. Still, it’s gotten even farther than 2012
Sundance champ Beasts of the Southern
Wild, and could wind up stealing some major prizes like editing and adapted
screenplay.
As
I mentioned in my nominations write-up, this was the Best Picture lineup we
were expecting, and based on other key nominations, what was expected to be
right behind (Foxcatcher; Nightcrawler) probably was. It’s the
second year in a row I’ve peerlessly predicted this category. But it’s the
first year in a long time I’m not too confident in my pick for winner. Birdman just feels right, though. Not
just because it’s dominated the guild circuit, but because I can’t really
imagine anything else taking it at this point. I’m holding out for Boyhood, though – no question, it’s my
pick.
Will win: Birdman
Could
win: Boyhood
Should
win: Boyhood
Best Director
Wes
Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro
G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard
Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett
Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten
Tyldum, The Imitation Game
For
one, the idea of a Best Picture/Director split three years in a row is absurd.
It’s even stranger to think that the director of Boyhood would beat the director of Birdman, which is both the Best Picture frontrunner right now and
shows infinitely more stylistic flair.
But
this race, regardless of how Best Picture goes, is extremely close. Linklater
is the man behind Boyhood – his
accomplishment is so widely- and universally-acknowledged, and we’ve seen this
category show more flexibility recently. Best Picture is not Best Director. Boyhood is a singular directorial
achievement, and it will eat up a lot of votes because of that.
Inarritu
won DGA and has the advantage of Birdman
pulling off a Gravity-like visual
feat. It’s showy, and voters like that – see Ang Lee beating Spielberg for Life of Pi a few years ago.
But
this category is also about, to a large degree, respectability and likability. Birdman is not a runaway favorite like The Artist or The Hurt Locker, where a match-up for Picture and Director is all
but guaranteed. And Linklater, in terms of reputation, has a leg up on
Inarritu. It could go either way, but I’m thinking the Boyhood director has got the votes.
Will win: Richard Linklater
Could
win: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Should
win: Richard Linklater