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| (Fox) |
The
Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveiled their ten nominees for Best Picture,
with some very notable snubs and surprises. The PGA is especially important, even
compared to other guilds, for several reasons: they use a preferential ballot as
the Academy does, therefore films with passionate support have an advantage;
they include ten films, whereas both DGA and SAG include five; and there is
substantial crossover membership between PGA and the Academy. However,
there are some caveats to consider. The PGA comprises exclusively producers,
while the Academy is dominated by actors with producers representing a minority – as such,
the PGA tends to go for bigger-budget and higher-profile studio fare. Also
consider that, though it hasn’t happened yet, the Oscar list for Best Picture
could range from 5-8 nominees (it’s been consistently at nine).
In
2009, the PGA went for Invictus
(budget $50M) and Star Trek ($150M),
while the Academy chose The Blind Side
($29M) and A Serious Man ($7M) in
their favor. In 2010, PGA selected The
Town ($37M), but the Academy went for Winter’s
Bone ($2M). In 2011 – the greatest discrepancy between the two over
the last five years – PGA listed the Oscar-snubbed Bridesmaids ($32.5M) and The
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($90M) ; Oscar replaced them with The Tree of Life ($32M), a box office
bomb from auteur Terrence Malick, and Extremely
Loud & Incredibly Close ($40M). PGA also nominated The Ides of March ($12.5M) that year, though the Oscar list was
whittled down to nine. In 2012, it was The Academy’s Amour ($8.9M) over PGA’s Skyfall
($150-200M) (and Moonrise Kingdom
[$16M], but again, Academy nominated nine). Finally, last year, PGA shortlisted
Saving Mr. Banks ($35M) over the
Academy choice Philomena ($12M), with
Blue Jasmine ($18M) playing the year’s
PGA-recognized outlier.
The
PGA doesn’t recognize small-time indies nearly as much, and never in the
past five years has a blockbuster Oscar contender missed out with the guild.
With that in mind, the PGA nominees for Best Theatrical Motion Picture (budget
in parentheses)…
American Sniper
($60M)
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of
Ignorance) ($18M)
Boyhood
($2.4M)
Foxcatcher
(~$25M)
Gone Girl
($61M)
The Imitation Game
($15M)
The Grand Budapest Hotel
(~$27.5M)
Nightcrawler
($8.5M)
The Theory of Everything
($15M)
Whiplash
($3.3M)
And,
the notable contenders that missed out…
Interstellar
($165M)
Into the Woods
($50M)
Mr. Turner
($10M)
Selma
($20M)
Unbroken
($65M)
So,
what’s the takeaway? Importantly, small indies Whiplash and especially Nightcrawler
withstood the guild’s bias to overtake likely contenders Unbroken and Into the Woods.
I’ve been noting that Into the Woods’
SAG snub shouldn’t be taken for granted, and not making it in here really feels
like the final blow to its Best Picture chances. Unbroken’s recognition from the Critics’ Choice indicates that a
consensus can rally around the film, but I was pretty shocked that it didn’t
make it in here, and it too has a mighty difficult climb from here-in.
Of
course, the glaring omission is Selma,
among the year’s very best in terms of critical acclaim, not to mention its
solid box office performance and tooting of the social importance horn. It’s
hard not to see how the LBJ controversy, which has really inflamed over the
past week, had an impact. Its utter absence with the guilds has been explained
by a lack of provided screeners, and it’s worth noting that screeners arrived late for
PGA members as well. I’m confident it would be in here if that was not the
case. However, the film’s magnified place in the conversation, Golden Globe and
Critics’ Choice recognition and release in NY/LA implies it should have, at the
very least, made the top 10 regardless. I’m doubtful DuVernay is nominated by
the DGA; the film’s chances at a win seem profoundly diminished at this point.
A Best Picture nomination still seems likely, but to overcome this would really
be something. (Sidenote: Interstellar
screeners were also sent late, but it’s been in theaters so long that if it had
any chance, it should have been placed here).
Steadily,
we’ve seen American Sniper gain
momentum, and at this point a nomination feels relatively assured, assuming the
field is wide enough. Ditto Grand
Budapest, which has been noted by every single major guild to date. I think
more expected to place here was Gone Girl,
given that Fincher’s Dragon Tattoo
did as well and it’s such a box office success, but it still has a spotty track
record. Even if Fincher gets in at DGA, I wouldn’t say the deal is sealed – this
is one question mark that will remain so right up until Oscar nomination
morning. I’m very much intrigued by the presence of Foxcatcher, which has had a strong showing to date. A DGA nod for
Bennett Miller would go a long way. And, of course, our rock-solid quartet – Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game
and The Theory of Everything –
remains just that.
Really,
though, the story here is what didn’t make the cut. That Unbroken and Into the Woods and Interstellar
were overtaken by Nightcrawler,
of all films, is extremely significant, and perhaps fatal for those big-budget
spectacles. While Nightcrawler is far
from a lock, every single guild has noted it in some capacity. That’s a
startling statistic, and a looming one. The field is starting to take shape, but
with Selma’s newly-established vulnerability, there
remain more open slots than ever. And, I keep banging the drum, but Mr. Turner is still a late-break
possibility that, like Philomena or Amour, won't get much from American
guilds. The WGA will weigh in on Thursday, but with Selma, Mr. Turner and
others ineligible, don’t read too much into their decisions.
With
all this in mind, I’ve updated my Oscar predictions list accordingly. Access it
here.