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| (Fox Searchlight) |
So,
I did alright predicting
the 2014 Oscar nominations: I was 8/8 in Picture; 5/5 in Supporting Actor,
Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay; 4/5 in Director, Actress and
Adapted Screenplay; and 3/5 in Actor. Overall, that’s 38/43, or 88%.
You
can check out my more in-depth, socially-conscious (and slightly angry) piece
on the nominations here,
but below I’ll outline exactly how the nominations shook out.
As
per usual, the guilds mostly forecast where we ended up. Only one film in
the past five years had gone with DGA recognition and without a corresponding
Best Picture nomination from the Academy. Thus, American Sniper, Birdman,
Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel and The
Imitation Game looked pretty secure. They were. Otherwise, The Theory of Everything picked up an
essential SAG ensemble nomination, while Whiplash
– from a rookie director and without an ensemble, thus not really a DGA or SAG
player – earned key nods from PGA, WGA and several below-the-line groups. All
seven films earned a minimum of five nominations, and were clearly the
consensus choice.
Selma
squeaked in at number eight – the final nominee, as for the first time since category
expansion Oscar went for less than nine – but it was clearly close. Foxcatcher
came on stronger than expected, and is the extremely rare film to earn
nominations in acting, directing and writing but not in Best Picture. But as
already-thought, the movie was too dark and likely didn’t arouse enough passion
in the big race. Conversely, Selma
was clearly not the big industry player pundits hoped it would be –
across-the-board guild snubs appropriately demonstrated that – but the levels
of audience satisfaction and critical acclaim convinced me it’d earn enough
number one votes. Thankfully, it pulled through.
The
guilds can also mislead. Gone Girl
and Nightcrawler were among the
biggest players – they were recognized by PGA, WGA, several technical groups
and SAG – but their Oscar haul was reduced to a single nomination apiece. For Gone Girl, reports of the
film not playing well to the Academy were key – I even ranked Gillian Flynn’s
screenplay chances at a shaky fifth, and thus was not as surprised as
some by her glaring omission – while Nightcrawler
was competing in some mighty-tight categories like Actor, and likely just
missed out on a number of them. I wouldn’t be surprised if it, rather than Foxcatcher, was next in line.
Best
Actor threw me. I noted in my final predictions that Bradley Cooper was gaining
fast, and sure enough he made it through. Jarringly, Cooper is the tenth actor
in history to earn three acting nominations in a row. And I’ll admit, I was
pretty low on Carell’s chances for Best Actor, but the Academy went for the
film more than expected and, as I’ve learned in the past, never underestimate
the Academy’s love for against-type, makeup-heavy performances. Carell was
good, but it’s not at all the kind of performance that would (or, really,
should) beat out David Oyelowo’s MLK. As for Oyelowo, I had a feeling he would
miss out; I put on my critic hat a little too firmly. The category was too
competitive, and I was confident Selma
wouldn’t be a major player. Still, kudos to Carell for holding buzz that started
in March with the Cannes premiere all the way to the end – I didn’t expect this
race to accommodate that.
All
hope wasn’t lost for Marion Cotillard after all, who clearly rode the
wave of passion from a small number of voters to overtake Jennifer Aniston.
Cotillard wouldn’t be here without wins from NYFCC and other smaller critics’
groups putting her on the map, and it’s a thrill to see her recognized after
the Academy weirdly ignored her a couple of years ago for Rust and Bone. As I wrote yesterday, the Critics’ Choice nomination
proved a consensus could rally around her. As for Aniston, there’s strong
precedent for this omission after a Globe/SAG/Critics’ Choice sweep. Oscar has
to like your movie, and know it. Nicole Kidman came out of nowhere with The Paperboy, but Oscar put her down.
Same goes for Leonardo DiCaprio of J.
Edgar, Daniel Bruhl of Rush and
others. And the Academy is a little snobbier than SAG, and likely didn’t give
the former sitcom star the light of day the way the star-struck Globes and
actor-friendly SAG did. And, I also noted Rosamund Pike’s vulnerability – given
Gone Girl’s near-total absence, I
would bet she stood on very shaky ground as well.
My
Hail Mary prediction this year was Laura Dern, who had been ignored across the
board by SAG, the Globes, the Critics’ Choice and BAFTA. But she worked the
circuit hard, had critics’ support and is a favorite among actors. If anything,
I was confident in her chances despite the many other names tossed around
for the final spot because not one actress made it in twice, save Jessica
Chastain. But Chastain’s two nominations came from two non-industry groups, and
A Most Violent Year was getting no
love from guilds – there was very little awareness of the film. Many took Rene
Russo’s BAFTA bid as indication of the tide turning her way, but for me, it
showed the race was just that wide open. Since Naomi Watts could overtake
Chastain at SAG, and Tilda Swinton could overtake Russo at Critics’ Choice,
there was clearly room to play. And with all that in mind, Dern was the obvious
pick.
Finally,
the Directing race, which I’d bet was extremely close for the final spot. It
ended up going to Bennett Miller, a funky and totally deserving pick; Foxcatcher is the first movie since 2007
to be nominated for Director and not Picture, especially notable since the Best
Picture race has since expanded to 8-10 nominees. I take Foxcatcher was a movie more respected than loved, which is a good
omen in the Directing branch. And it was obvious that, of the DGA five, Clint
Eastwood was the weak link considering what an obvious choice he was for the
guild. I thought Miller needed DGA to stay alive, but that turned out not be
correct (but Fincher’s absence did indicate real Gone Girl weakness). I’d bet Damien Chazelle was very close to
snagging the final spot, but given the general support around Birdman, Boyhood, Grand Budapest and Imitation, it was rather clear that only
one slot was up for grabs.
Of
the acting contenders, 17/20 were recognized by SAG and the Globes (they had an
identical prediction rate) – until today, Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard and
Laura Dern were exactly nowhere among major organizations (though Cotillard got
Critics’ Choice). But none were surprising. Easily, Miller’s directing
nomination is the one that shocked me the most; though Paul Thomas Anderson’s
adapted screenplay nod for Inherent Vice
was a fantastic surprise, considering his WGA snub and the influx of Whiplash and The Theory of Everything. In general, as per usual, the Oscars didn’t
surprise much in the big categories. Original Screenplay went exactly was
expected, with the WGA-ineligible Birdman
overtaking the category-swapping Whiplash,
and as per usual, acting contenders in films Oscar liked had a much better shot
of getting nominated.
And
most of these races appear almost decided. J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette should
win the supporting categories in a cakewalk, though I’m sure reports will swirl
around the “upset” potential of Birdman
supporting players Edward Norton and Emma Stone. Julianne Moore doesn’t even
have the Aniston wild card factor to worry about anymore, and finally, the Still Alice star should be able to call
herself an Academy Award winner. Best Actor is the only race at this point, and
given that SAG liked Birdman and Theory a great deal, whoever wins there
will be essential. Both Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne are Golden Globe
winners right now; I’d imagine Keaton takes Critics’ Choice, and Redmayne
BAFTA, leaving one open in SAG. We’ll see.
As
for the big category? I’m on team Boyhood,
obviously, but it needs to show guild strength. It’ll win Critics’ Choice
tonight, and the Globe win was a solid start. But we all thought The Social Network was a safe bet, until
The King’s Speech rocked its party
with PGA. That’s the one I’ll be looking out for – can The Imitation Game overthrow it? I think Richard Linklater is a
very safe bet to win Best Director either way, and that very fact boosts Boyhood since backlash is already
starting on Morten Tyldum’s directing nomination. Best Adapted Screenplay
probably goes to Imitation Game’s
Graham Moore, but I’d like to think in such a dry and thin category, Paul
Thomas Anderson can ratchet up a bunch of number ones and win his first Oscar.
It’s a longshot, but worth considering. And finally, Best Original Screenplay
is open season – but I’m betting it’s where Wes Anderson wins his first, horribly-overdue
Oscar.