BEST PICTURE
As
so often happens, with all of the guilds having weighed in, our Best Picture
lineup has been closed-in considerably.
Since
2009, only one film has received DGA recognition without a corresponding Best
Picture nomination from the Academy – David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which was also cited by PGA but
missed out almost entirely on the big Oscar nods. Otherwise, the story is
clear. In a year as wide-open and confusing as 2014, the news is especially
good for the films shortlisted by DGA: bubble contenders The Grand Budapest Hotel and American
Sniper, along with frontrunners The
Imitation Game, Birdman and Boyhood.
Those
five appear secure. Imitation was
always a nomination-lock, but with unknown director Morten Tyldum hitting DGA –
which notoriously favors directors’ directors, like Clint Eastwood – the film
is positioned as Boyhood’s primary
challenger. As for American Sniper,
it has hit WGA, PGA and DGA, proving dense support; I’ll discuss Eastwood’s
Oscar chances in a later section but the film appears safe. And pundits were
very cautious with The Grand Budapest
Hotel, Wes Anderson’s most successful film commercially and critically,
only because his last – Moonrise Kingdom
– was extremely close before the Academy shut it out. But that doesn’t appear
to be the case here. The film dominated BAFTA, won the big Golden Globe, and
joins Boyhood and Birdman as the only films to hit WGA,
PGA, DGA and SAG. It’s in – finally, a Wes Anderson film is in.
The Theory of Everything
and Whiplash are also looking good.
The former was nominated by SAG despite not having much of an ensemble to speak
of, and has demonstrated strength across nearly every group. James Marsh is an
unknown, so DGA recognition was not expected – and the same goes for Damien
Chazelle of Whiplash, who could still
penetrate the Oscar directing race as Benh Zeitlan did for Beasts of the Southern Wild. But Whiplash is a critical darling bound to earn a fair amount of #1
votes – it inspires that kind of passion – and Theory is a type A Oscar biopic that the industry has already
fawned over to a considerable degree. Unless the number of films nominated
hovers around 5-7, either missing out will be quite a shock.
Then
it gets tough – even if that’s already seven films. Considering we’ve had nine
films nominated in each of the last three years, imagining that happening again
is more than reasonable. That leaves room for only two films. No one is quite
sure what happened with Selma;
despite dominating the Indie Spirit, Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award
nominations, the industry has completely ignored it. We’re all aware that the
various guilds didn’t receive screeners in time, and certainly, Ava DuVernay
was at a natural disadvantage with DGA anyway given her lack of profile. But to
not make the PGA’s top 10? And to be completely snubbed by BAFTA, despite
starring British actors like David Oyelowo, Tom Wilkinson and Tim Roth in meaty
roles? Very suspect. If the film gets passed over by Oscar, the density of
post-nomination thinkpieces on that very topic will be deafening. And rightly
so. Not only is the film the very best-reviewed of the year save Boyhood, it’s also rocking audiences to
a considerable degree with an A+ CinemaScore, and is a prestige, star-studded
historical drama that Oscar loves to go for. The film could hit Oscar hard. I’m
thinking a Best Picture nomination has to be within reach. But if it doesn’t
make it through, the question of what exactly happened must be mulled over a
great deal.
The
ninth slot, if there is one, is between three films then: Nightcrawler, Gone Girl
and Foxcatcher, each of which have
shown solid guild strength along with notable weaknesses. All were cited by PGA
and WGA, none by DGA and all in minor categories by SAG. Foxcatcher has had to play the long game, from a ravishing Cannes
premiere to a disappointing stateside launch to a modest year-end presence in
the conversation. That the Critics’ Choice ignored it indicates it may be
difficult for a consensus to rally around. That SAG handed it two nominations implies
industry support is stronger than expected. And it has hit its beats. As for Gone Girl, I’m not so sure. Fincher is a
DGA favorite, making it in as mentioned earlier for Dragon Tattoo, but he couldn’t for Gone Girl. The movie also, despite an agreeable ensemble, missed
out at SAG. That Gillian Flynn made it into an absurdly weak WGA category, and
that the film ranked among the top 10 at both PGA and Critics’ Choice, is thus
not especially notable. Academy screenings reportedly didn’t go that well, and
the movie hasn’t been around much on the circuit, with Fincher and star
Rosamund Pike not doing much campaigning, quite unlike the teams on Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler. And speaking of Nightcrawler,
that film may be in the best position of the three, boasting a
little-film-that-could narrative and substantial support from various corners
of the industry. With citations from Critics’ Choice, PGA, WGA, AFI, SAG and
even a couple nods from BAFTA, the film is strong, and more importantly, as an
underdog it arouses passion. In a tight race like this, that’s all you need.
Safe Bets:
1. Boyhood
2. The
Imitation Game
3. Birdman
4. The
Theory of Everything
5. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
6. Whiplash
7. American
Sniper
Rounding Out:
8. Selma
9. Nightcrawler
On the Cusp:
10. Foxcatcher
11. Gone
Girl
BEST ACTOR
What
a tough category. It’s very rare for Best Actor to have eight very strong
contenders going for spots right until the day before nomination day, but
that’s where we are. Quite safe are Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything, Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game and Michael Keaton
for Birdman. Two of the three are now
Globe winners, and all three have been nominated by every single major group;
more notably, they are in Best Picture frontrunners that grow stronger by the
day. They’re safe.
The
last actor to pop up consistently is, quite surprisingly, Jake Gyllenhaal. The Nightcrawler star made a splash with a
SAG nomination, less-surprisingly fit into the Globe drama five and sort-of
notably made it into the Critics’ Choice top six. But the real key is BAFTA:
that he was able to fit into the final five of a crossover group like BAFTA is
critical, and very indicative of his chances. It’s possible that Nightcrawler doesn’t hit the Academy as
hard as it has hit the guilds, but the movie is strong right now, and that
Gyllenhaal has yet to be ignored by a group is a very good omen. But he’s not a
lock – not in this category.
It’s
also incredibly hard to say with David Oyelowo, Selma’s Martin Luther King. When the group likes the movie, he gets
nominated – see Critics’ Choice, the Golden Globes, the Indie Spirits – but
he’s without any industry recognition, considering SAG and BAFTA completely
overlooked the movie. Bias notwithstanding, it’s a towering performance that
should earn a fair amount of passionate votes. But how strong is the movie? And
in a category this dense, how on-the-radar is the performance? We have no way
of knowing, except for the fact that Critics’ Choice shows that a large group
of diverse individuals can rally around the performance. I’m wearily predicting
him to fill out the category, but let’s not kid ourselves: a BAFTA nod would
have gone a long way, and I won’t be surprised at all if he’s left off. But I’m
holding out hope.
Right
behind is one contender that was expected to figure in stronger (Steve Carell
of Foxcatcher), and one that has come
out of nowhere (Ralph Fiennes of The
Grand Budapest Hotel). Carell overtook Fiennes at SAG, but otherwise,
Fiennes has shown up everywhere, from the Globes and Critics’ Choice to,
more surprisingly, BAFTA. Carell got in at SAG mainly because he’s a TV actor,
and the substantial amount of TV actors in the guild gave him a lift. But he
couldn’t even crack the Critics’ Choice top six, and BAFTA relegated him to
supporting. I think that’s where his best chance is; his is an understated,
arguably supporting performance in a category filled with flamboyant, lead
performances. I can’t imagine him rousing the necessary passion here, unless
voters really go for Foxcatcher.
Fiennes, however, has the Grand Budapest
wave behind him, and was shown industry support with BAFTA. He also goes
against type. It’s the kind of performance voters would need to be reminded of,
but the critics and the Globes likely did that. He’s got a very good chance.
The
other one with a good shot is an actor that has shown up exactly nowhere –
Bradley Cooper of American Sniper.
Even those that don’t love the film have raved about Cooper’s performance, and Sniper is rapidly ascending. He’s been
nominated two years in a row, understandably on the strength of his films, and
here he’s going to a completely different place as an actor. Again, with Oscar,
passion matters, and many voters are going to get behind this one. Cooper’s
main problem is that he didn’t get in anywhere, despite there being room
at the Globes and Critics’ Choice. Fiennes has been favored over him, as have
Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal. Not in recent memory has a Best Actor nominee been
uniformly without recognition from SAG, BAFTA, the Globes and the Critics’
Choice. That’s a major hindrance. But don’t count him out. If Sniper has a big day, I’d bet he’ll be a
part of it.
Safe Bets:
1. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
2. Michael Keaton, Birdman
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Rounding Out:
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
5. David Oyelowo, Selma
On the Cusp:
6. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
8. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
BEST ACTRESS
The
story has been the same: Julianne Moore is winning for Still Alice, Felicity Jones and Reese Witherspoon will nip at her
heels for The Theory of Everything and
Wild, respectively, and Rosamund Pike
of Gone Girl and Jennifer Aniston of Cake will round out the category.
It’s
a compelling narrative, but the category also feels ripe for an upset. Moore,
Jones and Witherspoon are definitely in, considering they’ve hit every
precursor and are aggressively on the circuit. Any of them getting left off
will be a stunner. And Aniston, too, has fared extremely well, her BAFTA
absence not reflective of much considering she was ineligible. Aniston has been
on the circuit, only building in profile since her surprising SAG nomination.
I’m
predicting Rosamund Pike, but I also think she’s the most vulnerable for a
couple of reasons. One, she’s not on the circuit. That matters. It hurt Robert
Redford, who had an irresistible narrative for All Is Lost last year. Pike is entirely reliant on awareness of the
movie – which, considering Gone Girl’s
commercial numbers, is not a horrible thing – since she’s not a big name
stateside. Her other problem is Gone Girl
itself – is this an Academy movie? If not, she’s in trouble. Emma Thompson got
swept up in Saving Mr. Banks’
underperformance just last year, missing out on a nod that appeared assured –
she, too, was nominated by every major group. Pike’s performance is
lauded-enough where her spot in the race seems relatively safe, and Aniston’s
jolt to the category is undeniably shaky – either could miss out,
theoretically. But I’m not completely in the camp of “she’s got this.”
And,
also: beware of Amy Adams. Everyone is all over her right now, and BAFTA
nominating her for this sub-par Tim Burton movie indicates she has legs. Big Eyes is not going to hit a lot of
top categories, but it’s got support among techy voters and Adams absolutely
has her actors behind her. The character is extremely sympathetic (Pike’s
“Amazing Amy,” not so much) and the performance, while subdued, is warm and
connective (and Golden Globe-winning). I can see it. It’s also worth holding
out hope for Marion Cotillard; her Critics’ Choice nomination demonstrates she
has a chance, with a consensus stumping for her. But, let’s be clear: it’s a
longshot. For whatever reason, no matter the performer’s profile and
performance’s quality, foreign-language performances have a mighty difficult
time figuring in here. The Academy clearly didn’t love Two Days, One Night – it didn’t crack the foreign-language
shortlist – and at this point, a Cotillard nomination would be a delightful,
albeit rather shocking, surprise.
Safe Bets:
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
3. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Rounding Out:
4. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
5. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
On the Cusp:
6. Amy Adams, Big Eyes
7. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
There’s
some room to play here – Steve Carell’s BAFTA drop-down to supporting indicates
that this category could go in any number of directions. Until BAFTA, it had
been J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark
Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) and Robert Duvall (The Judge). But Duvall was replaced by
Carell when it came to the British vote.
If
Carell is indeed a player in supporting, what does that mean for Ruffalo? Not
much. Despite wavering feelings about Foxcatcher
between groups, Ruffalo has been a mainstay, and is such a likeable and
consistent presence on the campaign trail that a nomination seems relatively
secure. Hawke and Norton, meanwhile, should ride in here comfortably with their
films’ overall strength, and Simmons appears on the march to victory. Carell
would seem a more likely choice than Duvall for spot number five, if only
because the movie is more on Academy radar and the performance more praised.
One could chalk Duvall’s presence within SAG up to respect among actors, and
the Globes love old Hollywood icons.
Then
again, we don’t really know if Carell is competing down here for the
Oscars, even if BAFTA accurately foresaw a recent switch for Kate Winslet (The Reader). So it’s difficult to say at
this point. As for other potential contenders, Josh Brolin’s wacko Inherent Vice turn was likely to earn
Critics’ Choice recognition, but that doesn’t mean he has much of a shot with
the Academy. I suppose the real one to watch out for is Tom Wilkinson, Selma’s LBJ. Though he hasn’t shown up
anywhere, and though his character is the source of a big, ugly controversy,
Wilkinson is a multi-nominee in a baity part. Say voters really go for Selma – you really think he doesn’t have
a shot at it?
Safe Bets:
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Rounding Out:
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge
On the Cusp:
6. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
7. Tom Wilkinson, Selma
8. Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ah,
that elusive fifth spot. SAG went weird, with Naomi Watts of St. Vincent. The Globes went for Jessica
Chastain, of the critically-acclaimed albeit little-seen A Most Violent Year. And BAFTA threw a wrench in it: Rene Russo’s
extravagant Nightcrawler performance.
Chastain
hasn’t been noted by any industry organization, and Watts’ St. Vincent is too odd to carry through to the Oscars. Thus, many
pundits are taking Russo’s nomination as proof that the missing contender has
revealed herself. But let’s back up. Russo was placed right alongside Imelda
Staunton, nodded for the barely-registering Pride,
and Oscar safe bet Meryl Streep (Into the
Woods) was left off. Yes, frontrunner Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Emma Stone (Birdman) and Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) were placed once
again – at this point, they’re impenetrable – but what I’m seeing is a spot
that is wide open. There is no consensus choice, and industry groups
have lobbied for really outside-the-box choices.
Several
actresses could figure into that last spot. Staunton’s Pride was a big UK hit, but seeing the performance cross over to
the Oscars is unlikely. Watts’ St.
Vincent performance has been recognized by exactly no one else, and has no
talk around it. Tilda Swinton was the last pick of the Critics’ Choice for Snowpiercer, a showy performance in a
non-Oscar movie with limited screentime. Chastain, as mentioned before, is in a
very under-the-radar movie, but the performance remains the buzziest of the
bunch. Russo could easily ride that Nightcrawler
wave, and is certainly the safe pick at this point.
But
the one to watch out for is Laura Dern, whose Wild will be earning at least a couple nominations, and whose work
on the circuit has been rigorous. Dern is an actor’s actor, very respected and
fresh off an Emmy-nominated and Golden Globe-winning television run on Enlightened. And her Wild performance has earned acclaim, and
nominations from several critics’ groups. People expected her to waltz into the
category early on, and that hasn’t happened. But this spot remains up for
grabs, and it’d be foolish to count her out. This is my one pick where I really
go out on a limb; I like her chances, if only because I can’t quite get behind
the Russo narrative definitively. There’s too much room, too little consensus –
Wild is getting seen, and that might
just be enough. (But, in all seriousness, this is a mighty tough one and could
go in a number of ways.)
Safe Bets:
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Emma Stone, Birdman
3. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Rounding Out:
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Laura
Dern, Wild
On the Cusp:
6. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
7. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
8. Imelda Staunton, Pride
BEST DIRECTOR
Going
back to those DGA-nominated directors, the news is especially good for Morten
Tyldum of The Imitation Game. DGA
tends to reward names they know more than Oscar, and so Tyldum figuring in here
bodes extremely well for his chances with Oscar.
And
yet Tyldum couldn’t even fit into the BAFTA directing nominees; could the
directing branch look elsewhere? Absolutely. I think we’re looking at three
directors with an excellent, almost foolproof shot: Richard Linklater,
near-lock to win for Boyhood;
Alejandro G. Inarritu, whose Birdman
is a directorial tour-de-force; and little-contender-that-could Wes Anderson,
whose overdue narrative helps him as immensely as the love being showered on The Grand Budapest Hotel. From there,
this is a dense race.
I
don’t see David Fincher having much of a prayer for Gone Girl – DGA likes him more than Oscar, and given that Academy
screenings haven’t gone especially well, his chances appear quite dim. The same
goes for Bennett Miller. But I didn’t expect DGA recognition for either Damien
Chazelle, whose work on Whiplash rather shockingly fit into the BAFTA final
five, or Dan Gilroy, who made his debut on the fast-rising Nightcrawler. But they have a good shot. I’m personally of the mind
that Chazelle has a very good chance. Whiplash is such an adrenaline-rush, and inspires such passionate
love, that for the branch to throw a bone at this exciting new filmmaker
appears exactly in line with what they do.
If
we look for a through-line in the differences between DGA and Oscar, budget is
a big one. In 2012, Paul Greengrass’ blockbuster Captain Phillips was the DGA’s choice, but Oscar went for Alexander
Payne’s black-and-white indie Nebraska.
In 2012 – that notorious year – DGA lobbed for the studio hits Argo (Ben Affleck), Zero Dark Thirty (Kathryn Bigelow) and Les Miserables (Tom Hooper), while Oscar’s unique choices ranged
from the micro- (Benh Zeitlan, Beasts of
the Southern Wild; Michael Haneke, Amour)
to the modestly-budgeted (David O. Russell, Silver
Linings Playbook) fare. In 2011, Fincher’s DGA-recognized Dragon Tattoo towered over the
Oscar-preferred Terrence Malick flick The
Tree of Life in terms of budget. In 2010, Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Inception couldn’t carry through from
DGA and Oscar. It goes on.
Clint
Eastwood was recognized for the sizably-funded American Sniper, which fits squarely in line with the type of film
that tends not to make the jump. The notable difference, however, is that Sniper is red-hot, whereas movies like Captain Phillips and Zero Dark Thirty were generally cooling
off. Still, he fits the narrative, and is easily the most vulnerable of the
five DGA nominees. And the one major director yet to be discussed is Ava
DuVernay, who didn’t have much of a chance with DGA considering the Selma’s generally poor performance with
guilds. But she hit the Globes and, more importantly considering the size of the
group, Critics’ Choice. We just don’t know how the Academy feels about the
movie – we have no indication. Considering industry support for the movie is,
at this point, non-existent, I don’t feel comfortable putting her in my top
five. But the Academy Directing branch is a quirky bunch, and it’d be a show of
worthy support if they really lobby for her. We’ll see.
Safe Bets:
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Rounding Out:
4. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
5. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
On the Cusp:
6. Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
7. Ava DuVernay, Selma
8. Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
5. Foxcatcher
(alternate:
Selma)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The
Imitation Game
2. The
Theory of Everything
3. Whiplash
4. American
Sniper
5. Gone
Girl
(alternate:
Wild)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1.
Birdman
2. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Mr.
Turner
4. Unbroken
5. The
Imitation Game
(alternate:
Selma)
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Boyhood
2. The
Imitation Game
3. Birdman
4. Whiplash
5. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
(alternate:
American Sniper)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into
the Woods
3. The
Imitation Game
4. Maleficent
5. Selma
(alternate:
Mr. Turner)
BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING
1. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Guardians
of the Galaxy
3. Foxcatcher
(alternate:
The Theory of Everything)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The
Theory of Everything
2. The
Imitation Game
3. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Interstellar
5. Gone
Girl
(alternate:
The Judge)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1.
Selma
2. Begin
Again
3. The
LEGO Movie
4. Boyhood
5. Big
Eyes
(alternate:
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. The
Grand Budapest Hotel
2. The
Imitation Game
3. Into
the Woods
4. Birdman
5. Big
Eyes
(alternate:
Mr. Turner)
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. American
Sniper
2. Guardians
of the Galaxy
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. Fury
(alternate:
Birdman)
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. American
Sniper
2. Birdman
3. Unbroken
4. Guardians
of the Galaxy
5. Dawn
of the Planet of the Apes
(alternate:
The Imitation Game)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dawn
of the Planet of the Apes
2. Interstellar
3. Guardians
of the Galaxy
4. The
Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies
5. X-Men:
Days of Future Past
(alternate:
Godzilla)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Citizenfour
2. Last
Days in Vietnam
3. Life
Itself
4. Finding
Vivian Maier
5. The
Overnighters
(alternate:
Virunga)
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
1. Leviathan
2. Ida
3. Force
Majeure
4. Wild
Tales
5. Timbuktu
(alternate:
The Liberator)
BEST ANIMATED FILM
1. The
LEGO Movie
2. The
Boxtrolls
3. How to
Train Your Dragon 2
4. Big
Hero 6
5. The
Book of Life
(alternate:
The Tale of Princess Kayuga)