With the ceremony only days away, below are my picks for who will win each of the 26 Emmy Awards presented Sunday night. Note that I’ve changed a few predictions since I ran my analyses/commentary (linked to below), mainly due to the surprising results of the Creative Arts Emmys. And as always, for the most part I am not especially confident. Since this is an especially unpredictable year – given the radical change in voting procedure – I’m expecting the unexpected.
Click on the Comedy, Drama, Variety and Longform headlines for deeper analysis of the nominees. Predicted winners are bolded.
Outstanding Series
This race could go in any number of directions, and I think that fact is ultimately to Transparent’s benefit. Some votes will go longtime favorite Veep’s way, Silicon Valley has broad appeal, and even Modern Family is sure to draw votes from those that (somehow) remain in its favor. But divided loyalties help Transparent, a show of high quality as well as social impact. In a popular vote, standing out is what matters most. (Alternates: Veep; Silicon Valley)
Outstanding Lead Actor
Absolutely nothing indicates that this isn’t Jeffrey Tambor’s for the taking. The only actor I could imagine giving him a run for his money is William H. Macy, since the Shameless star currently holds the equivalent SAG prize. But bet on the Pfefferman matriarch. (Alternate: William H. Macy, Shameless)
Outstanding Lead Actress
It’s closer than you think. There are several headliners in this category, among them the red-hot Amy Schumer, overdue Amy Poehler and industry magnet Lily Tomlin. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, popular vote or not, remains this category’s overwhelming leader – she’s undefeated, after all – but with the entire Television Academy voting, Tomlin in particular could surprise. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. (Alternates: Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie; Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer)
Outstanding Supporting Actor
If we were still going by the tape system, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt breakout Tituss Burgess would stand a good chance. But unknown that he is, I’m not sure he’s got the votes in the new populist system. Who wins instead? Fortunately, there’s enough Modern Family fatigue where Ty Burrell shouldn’t win yet again. Look more towards Andre Braugher, so beloved by the Academy that he’s nominated for a show (Brooklyn Nine-Nine) they have absolutely no interest in otherwise, and Tony Hale, a former winner who has the vital benefit of being on one of Emmy’s favorite comedies. (Alternates: Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine; Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)
Outstanding Supporting Actress
There are eight actresses nominated here, which means support is bound to splinter. Still, Allison Janney is a consensus choice if there ever was one: her work on Mom is broad but smart, slapstick but deep. Anna Chlumsky is her biggest threat, with a knockout of an episode submitted and the Veep name to back her up. (Alternate: Anna Chlumsky, Veep)
Outstanding Writing
Emmy voters love pilots, and they really like Transparent (“Pilot,” written by Jill Soloway) – this one seems clear. Of course, if either Veep or Silicon Valley dominates the popular vote, they’re in prime position to steal it away. And the same goes for Louis C.K., a rare multi-winner in the category. (Alternates: Armando Iannucci et al. for “Election Night,” Veep; Louis C.K. for “Bobby’s House”)
Outstanding Directing
I’ve been going back-and-forth on this one a lot. Armando Iannucci’s farewell episode of Veep is thrillingly stylish in its own way, but I keep coming back to the inventive, contained and rigorous work of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for the Last Man on Earth pilot (“Alive in Tuscon”). This is a very tight race, not even including my personal choice – Jill Soloway’s ambitious direction of Transparent’s flashback episode – and might be an area where voters step outside their comfort zone. (Alternates: Armando Iannucci for “Testimony,” Veep; Jill Soloway for “Best New Girl,” Transparent)
Outstanding Series
Oh, is this one close. Given that it’s a popular vote, the sensible choice would be to pick HBO’s megahit Game of Thrones, which while past its prime is surprisingly without a series win yet. But Mad Men has enormous respect in the industry. Though it went out a little colder than it started – unlike, say, Breaking Bad – its legacy looms large. (Alternate: Game of Thrones)
Outstanding Lead Actor
He’s lost even when he seemed the overwhelming favorite, and yet I find myself extremely confident in Jon Hamm’s chances this year. It’s a (very) well-known fact that despite creating one of TV’s most iconic characters, Hamm is without the industry’s staple award. With the Mad Men finale, he’s got a decent tape, but sentiment in the popular vote should push him over the edge. Of course, Kevin Spacey is an actor’s favorite – and if they’re going by tapes, Kyle Chandler is still very much in this thing. He’s beat Hamm before. (Alternates: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards; Kyle Chandler, Bloodline)
Outstanding Lead Actress
Viola Davis, a favorite among actors, is fearsomely good in one of TV’s most popular shows. That’s a pretty irresistible combination, right? Well, yes, but exercise some caution: Taraji P. Henson surely has some super-fans out there, even if Empire landed quietly with Emmy voters, and Globe champ Robin Wright is still there too. Lots of strong competition here, but I’ll nonetheless be very surprised if Viola Davis isn’t on that stage Sunday night. (Alternates; Taraji P. Henson, Empire; Robin Wright, House of Cards)
Outstanding Supporting Actor
This one seems nicely set-up for Jonathan Banks. The Emmy nominee is on a show that’s an unexpected hit with the Academy – in a long-beloved role, no less. And in case episodes still matter, he’s submitted the clear knockout in the category. Michael Kelly was popular enough to get in for House of Cards, but I don’t think he’s got the name recognition to win over the whole Academy. Plus, all the scene-stealing-character-actor noise went Ben Mendelsohn’s way – the Bloodline standout is definitely the sleeper here. (Alternates: Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline; Michael Kelly, House of Cards)
Outstanding Supporting Actress
Basing this one on popular vote. Lena Headey has the better tape of the two frontrunners, but the Game of Thrones actress lacks industry cred and name recognition, while Uzo Aduba has emerged as the anointed breakout of Orange Is the New Black. She managed a Best Lead Actress win at SAG, and has a guest acting Emmy under her belt as well – I suspect voters will jump at the chance to upgrade her award. I’d also like to think Christina Hendricks has a good shot here. She, like Hamm, should benefit from a popular vote, as her work is well-regarded but was always too subtle to pull through under the tape system. (Alternates: Lena Headey, Game of Thrones; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men)
Outstanding Writing
This is his series’ most assured win – Matthew Weiner’s controversial, cathartic Mad Men finale (“Person to Person”) will certainly be recognized.
Outstanding Directing
This one comes down to name recognition. If for the director himself, Steven Soderbergh of The Knick (“Method and Madness,” or the pilot) has it hands down. But Boardwalk Empire has won this prize multiple times, and Tim Van Patten has a great reputation. Could be closer than we think. (Alternate: Tim Van Patten for “El Dorado,” Boardwalk Empire)
Outstanding Limited Series
Lisa Cholodenko’s humanist epic Olive Kitteridge did well enough at the Creative Arts ceremony where it should have no problem winning this award. Emmy voters go head-over-heels for Masterpiece productions, so if anything were to pull off the night’s biggest upset, I suppose it’d be Wolf Hall. (Alternate: Wolf Hall)
Outstanding Lead Actor
Adored character actor Richard Jenkins gets a huge lift in this category courtesy of the new voting procedure. David Oyelowo is fiery and passionate in Nightingale, but not quite at Jenkins’ level of industry respect, while lauded theater star Mark Rylance is just as worthy in Wolf Hall, but is likely lacking in the necessary name recognition. Chalk up another win for the Kitteridge clan. (Alternates: David Oyelowo, Nightingale; Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall)
Outstanding Lead Actress
This is a great category – Maggie Gyllenhaal, Felicity Huffman and Queen Latifah all give career-best performances – but, unless Olive Kitteridge gets passed over (not gonna happen), Frances McDormand should emerge victorious. (Alternates: Queen Latifah, Bessie; Felicity Huffman, American Crime)
Outstanding Supporting Actor
He’s not quite the most deserving here, but he’s Bill Murray, and he’s in Olive Kitteridge: a combination that probably can’t be outdone, except possibly (and it’s a longshot) by Emmy winner Damian Lewis. (Alternate: Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall)
Outstanding Supporting Actress
Sarah Paulson has generated quite the reputation over the last decade or so. Her performance in Freak Show is widely regarded as her best yet – and ordinarily, we’d point to that as enough for a win after several narrow defeats. But anything can happen in a popular vote, and with actors like Kathy Bates and more-popular programs like Olive Kitteridge represented here, she’s far from a lock. (Alternates: Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Freak Show; Zoe Kazan, Olive Kitteridge)
Outstanding Writing
The main category where Olive Kitteridge could easily lose, Longform Writing is known for its surprises. John Ridley would be an obvious pick, as the Oscar winner who turned to TV with a well-regarded miniseries, but also keep an eye on Hugo Blick. The Honorable Woman auteur is nominated for three Emmys this year alone, and his contributions are hard to ignore. (Alternates: Jane Anderson, Olive Kitteridge; John Ridley, American Crime)
Outstanding Directing
Oscar-nominated filmmaker Lisa Cholodenko made a bold transition to the small-screen with Olive Kitteridge, and she should easily walk away with the directing prize. (Alternate: Dee Rees, Bessie)
Note: Outstanding TV Movie went to Bessie at last week’s Creative Arts Awards, which I had predicted.
Outstanding Talk Series
Colbert and Letterman are on their way out as well, but in terms of relevance and consistency, it’d be an odd thing if Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show didn’t get a proper farewell. (Alternates: The Late Show with David Letterman; The Colbert Report)
Outstanding Sketch Series
Saturday Night Live is more popular and boasts an iconic brand, but few would disagree with the sentiment that it’s past-its-prime. Conversely, Inside Amy Schumer is hitting a creative high – and few variety stars are as popular right now. (Alternate: Saturday Night Live)
Outstanding Writing
The Colbert Report has dominated this category for some time now, and it seems like a nice place to honor the political satire’s legacy – that is, unless The Daily Show completely dominates in its own final year of eligibility. (Alternate: The Daily Show)
Outstanding Directing
One of the year’s most talked-about episodes of TV, “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” is a visually-precise and brilliantly imaginative piece of variety sketch. Emmy voters will recognize it accordingly.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
The Amazing Race: What else could it be? As I said earlier – this race (ha) is well beyond the point of relevance.