By the time last year’s Academy Awards rolled around, every acting category seemed all but predetermined: Julianne Moore, Patricia Arquette and J.K. Simmons were locked-in, while eventual Best Actor winner Eddie Redmayne went into the contest with a healthy lead over comeback kid Michael Keaton.
The Oscar still holds more clout than its small-screen equivalent, but the acting awards are turning more predictable and less vital. (Moore, Arquette and Simmons’ wins were as much career appreciation awards as they were acknowledgments of great work.) The Emmy for Drama seems to be going in the opposite direction. Not only did last year’s Best Actor battle between Bryan Cranston and Matthew McConaughey go down to the wire, but it represented two ends of the extraordinary range of acting work being done. Similarly, Julianna Margulies’ Best Actress triumph, coming after being snubbed just one year earlier, demonstrated the unique power of television, and of just how deep a continued performance can go.
This is an especially exciting year for the drama Emmys, and that’s saying something considering many of TV’s very best shows (Rectify, The Americans) are hardly represented here.
In Outstanding Drama Series, the final season of former category champ Mad Men faces off against HBO’s blockbuster giant Game of Thrones, which set a nominations record this year. Considering Mad Men’s diminished role as an awards juggernaut, the period drama isn’t close to the sure thing that the final seasons of Breaking Bad or The Sopranos were in their qualifying years. But fortunately (or perhaps unfortunately, considering the great seasons not even competing here), the competition is limited. House of Cards really dropped off the critical radar this year with a widely-disliked third season, and isn’t the cultural phenomenon it once was. Orange Is the New Black unfortunately dropped off in strength in the forced move from comedy to drama. And it would be strange to honor Game of Thrones, which while as popular as ever – and likely Mad Men’s chief competition – is coming off of its most uneven season. It’s far from a sure thing, but given what’s in competition here – also including the deflated Downton Abbey, resurgent Homeland and newcomer Better Call Saul – a failure to recognize the end of one of history’s great TV dramas would seem especially egregious.
A more interesting question refers to Best Actor, and the chances of Jon Hamm to finally win an Emmy for his long-acclaimed performance as Donald Draper. That no Mad Men cast member has ever won an Emmy is a known oversight; that Hamm has never won is a known travesty. The actor certainly had his best shot in 2011, the year in which Breaking Bad (and Bryan Cranston) took a year off and Hamm had a seemingly-unbeatable episode in “The Suitcase,” an emotional powerhouse of a showcase. He unexpectedly lost to the subtle work of Kyle Chandler in the Friday Night Lights series finale. This year, the two actors are squaring off in a near role-reversal. Hamm now has the nostalgia factor in his favor, while Chandler is back in the contest with a new character in Bloodline. While that under-the-radar Netflix drama would hardly seem to be Hamm’s principal threat, don’t take it at face value. Chandler’s contending episode is the kind of tour-de-force that Hamm boasted back in 2011, while the Mad Men leading man is going all-in on the “he’s due” sentiment by submitting the series finale for consideration. It’ll be another close duel, and again it’s a fascinating reflection of the industry. Waiting in the wings as a potential upset is reigning SAG and Golden Globe champ Kevin Spacey (House of Cards), but at this point, I have to believe voters will finally reward Hamm for creating one of the medium’s most iconic characters.
If Viola Davis appeared to be the Best Actress frontrunner before Empire’s underperformance in the nominations, she has to be looking even better now. The How to Get Away with Murder star has already proven her industry cred, having snagged the equivalent prize at SAG, and has an intense episode to compete with that ends with a jaw-dropper. Her chief competition remains Taraji P. Henson, the breakout superstar of the breakout super-hit Empire, but the actress gives a performance far more flamboyant and comedic than what this category traditionally acknowledges. She’ll need to rely on buzz – of which she has plenty behind her – to win this thing. For a category that for so long was without a single performer of color competing, that this race is between two black actresses giving among the year’s most celebrated on-screen performances speaks immensely to TV’s burgeoning vitality and diversity. Robin Wright is always a threat for her acclaimed work in House of Cards, while I suppose that the right pocket of intense support for Tatiana Maslany could vault her to the night’s biggest upset. But this is almost certainly down to Davis and Henson, with the former enjoying a comfortable lead.
I quite like Jonathan Banks’ chances to win Best Supporting Actor for Better Call Saul. Having lost a close contest at the Emmys in 2013 to Bobby Cannavale, he’s back with the category’s best episode and dense levels of affection for his performance. But don’t be surprised if one of the two Netflix contenders take him out. Michael Kelly has a showcase episode for House of Cards to work with, while Ben Mendelsohn’s Bloodline work lives up to the astonishing levels of acclaim he generated earlier this year. Either would fit into the trend of long-respected character actors getting their due, as we’ve seen recently with Cannavale or Zeljko Ivanek. As for Best Supporting Actress, we’ve got a clear frontrunner: Lena Headey, who with the “Walk of Shame” sequence will very likely become Game of Thrones’ first acting winner since its debut season. Of course, if Mad Men nostalgia is strong enough, the beyond-overdue Christina Hendricks absolutely has an episode worth honoring. One can hope.
In the Best Writing and Best Directing fields, the very likely winners again exemplify just how expansive TV as a creative medium has become. In the former, Matthew Weiner will almost certainly take a farewell prize for the Mad Men series finale “Person to Person.” It’s the sentimental end to a classical drama series very much defined by its eccentric showrunner, ending with the type of maddeningly brilliant sequence so eerily reminiscent of The Sopranos’. I suppose that’s good company. Over on the directing front, frontrunning series The Knick is of a very different mold – it’s dominated by the director in vision and artistry. Steven Soderbergh competes with the show’s gorgeously vibrant pilot, and that should be enough to take him over the top. That said, the season finale of Game of Thrones and series finale of Boardwalk Empire boast the lavish sets and tonal command necessary to snag the required amount of votes.
PREDICTIONS
Outstanding Drama Series
Predicted winner: MAD MEN
Runner-up: GAME OF THRONES
Should win: MAD MEN
Should have been nominated: THE AMERICANS
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: JON HAMM, Mad Men
Runner-ups: KYLE CHANDLER, Bloodline; KEVIN SPACEY, House of Cards
Should win: JON HAMM, Mad Men
Should have been nominated: ADEN YOUNG, Rectify
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: VIOLA DAVIS, How to Get Away with Murder
Runner-up: TARAJI P. HENSON, Empire
Should win: TARAJI P. HENSON, Empire
Should have been nominated: LIZZY CAPLAN, Masters of Sex
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: JONATHAN BANKS, Better Call Saul
Runner-ups: BEN MENDELSOHN, Bloodline; MICHAEL KELLY, House of Cards
Should win: BEN MENDELSOHN, Bloodline
Should have been nominated: WALTON GOGGINS, Justified
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Predicted winner: LENA HEADEY, Game of Thrones
Runner-up: CHRISTINA HENDRICKS, Mad Men
Should win: CHRISTINA HENDRICKS, Mad Men
Should have been nominated: LORRAINE TOUSSAINT, Orange Is the New Black
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Predicted winner: MATTHEW WEINER for “Person to Person,” Mad Men
Runner-up: None.
Should win: MATTHEW WEINER for “Person to Person,” Mad Men
Should have been nominated: DAMON LINDELOF & JACQUELINE HOYT for “Two Boats and a Helicopter,” The Leftovers
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Predicted winner: STEVEN SODERBERGH for “Method and Madness,” The Knick
Runner-ups: TIM VAN PATTEN for “Eldorado,” Boardwalk Empire; DAVID NUTTER for “Mother’s Mercy,” Game of Thrones
Should win: STEVEN SODERBERGH for “Method and Madness,” The Knick
Should have been nominated: CARL FRANKLIN for “Part 12,” Bloodline