If Modern Family wins Outstanding Comedy Series this year, it will hold the all-time record at six victories. It’ll break its current tie with Frasier, and just as a reminder, it has already outdone All in the Family, Cheers, Everybody Loves Raymond, I Love Lucy and countless others.
It doesn’t take a review to point out how ridiculous this is. The fact is that Modern Family’s curious dominance is a product of a radical shift in quality TV comedy. Far more than drama, the form has splintered and specialized. If you look at the best shows competing over the last half-decade, you’ve got Louie and Orange Is the New Black, equally as dramatic as they are funny; cynical HBO comedies Veep and Curb Your Enthusiasm; and youth-skewing breakout Girls. Critical darlings like Enlightened, Broad City and Community have been so niche that they never even came close to a nomination, let alone win.
But in 2015, the scales are balancing. Emmy voters dropped The Big Bang Theory, the former perennial nominee and the most-watched comedy on TV. Modern Family diminished in strength, failing to earn recognition in both writing and directing categories. Social media are proving more influential than ever, catapulting obscure comedies into the mainstream consciousness. These series have captured the zeitgeist, using media as means to both artistic and political ends.
Fittingly, then, this is probably the year Modern Family gets dethroned. Out with the old, and in with the new. Amazon’s bracing (and brilliant) new series Transparent is in competition with the scathingly satirical HBO veteran Veep, which after likely just missing out last year is positioned very well this time around. Transparent, with a Golden Globe and DGA Award in tow, has proven its viability on national television and with industry groups – a crucial combination. Veep has already won major industry and critical prizes, and seems to build in strength with the Television Academy by the year. It’s the more popular of the two, but the freshness of Transparent – along with its impressive nomination haul – helps Jill Soloway’s chances enormously. Of course, either win would suffice as representative of the current state of TV comedy – as countless Modern Family wins have not. Also competing here is the debut season of Netflix’s blackly hilarious Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, a typically unusual and varied season of Louie and the final season of low-rated critical favorite Parks and Recreation, whose comeback in the category remains quite the stunner. Each one of these shows is distinct, unique and far from broad. And with that in mind, keep an eye out for the category’s final nominee, Silicon Valley. It’s the most popular and accessible of the bunch, but its competing second season also happened to be terrific. It’s fresh off of an upset Critics’ Choice victory, and if votes go in seven different directions, it might just emerge as the consensus choice.
Though Transparent’s chances are unclear in the big category, Jeffrey Tambor is looking rock-solid to win Best Actor. Again, it’s an indicator of change. After tying the category’s all-time record for his fourth win, The Big Bang Theory star Jim Parsons was shockingly omitted from its nominations list this year. Instead, Anthony Anderson was recognized for the warm ABC newbie black-ish, and Will Forte for the increasingly bizarre The Last Man on Earth. They join returning nominees Louis C.K. (Louie), William H. Macy (Shameless), Matt LeBlanc (Episodes) and Don Cheadle (House of Lies). It’s still a relatively weak category, but this category has been honoring broad slapstick for years – Parsons and Jon Cryer have made up the wins of the last five cycles. Tambor’s complex performance nicely reflects how the demands for the TV half-hour has changed, and it looks like finally Emmy voters will catch up to the times.
Best Actress presents a more interesting, complicated question: is it time to move on from Julia Louis-Dreyfus? A fourth consecutive win for Veep would tie her with Candice Bergen and Mary Tyler Moore for the all-time record (she also won once for The New Adventures of Old Christine), which, truthfully, seems fitting. And her work on Veep is as great as ever. But this category has some fascinating new energy, including “it” girl Amy Schumer, who just swept the critics’ awards circuit, and Lisa Kudrow, who gives a boldly tragicomic performance in the vein of recent winners Edie Falco and Toni Collette. You’ve also got comedic legend Lily Tomlin in her first leading series role, and final season nominations for perennials Falco and Amy Poehler. Every contender has a story here, but it’ll likely come down to the classical favorite in Louis-Dreyfus and the red-hot newbie in Schumer. I suspect, though, that Schumer’s acting ability will be somewhat underrated in the same way Louie’s has through years of competing in a less-competitive Best Actor category. After all, it’d be foolish to bet against the Incumbent.
Voters have leaned heavily on three-time champ Ty Burrell in Best Supporting Actor, but will that hold true with Modern Family’s diminished strength? He’s got a good tape, but I’m willing to bet this race comes down to a category veteran and a fresh face: Tony Hale and Tituss Burgess. Hale has a tape that works both for and against him; he’s got an epic showdown with Louis-Dreyfus at its close, but while showing off previously unseen range it’s more dramatic than what is typically honored here. Burgess doesn’t reach Hale’s name-recognition – the latter has already won for Veep, and made his name on Arrested Development – but just getting nominated may have been the tough part for him. It proves he’s got supporters, and he’s smartly submitted his “Pinot Noir” number – which, come on, how could you not honor that?
Allison Janney can do no wrong, and her superb, varied work in Mom will very likely net her a second straight prize for Best Supporting Actress. (Better question: will she win again for Masters of Sex, therefore winning four performance Emmys in two years? That has to be a record.) She’s got stiff competition, though. Anna Chlumsky is nominated here for the third straight year, and goodness does she have a slam dunk of an episode behind her. In “Convention,” she blows up in truly spectacular fashion; it’s a performance of hysterics and physicality, not unlike what makes Janney’s work so irresistible. It’s a close call. I also wonder about the category’s surprising nominees, Gaby Hoffman of Transparent and especially Niecy Nash of Getting On. Again, the recognition proves unexpected depths of support. And while Hoffman’s work is more dramatic and Nash’s more deadpan, both are flat-out excellent. As has happened in the past, we could be in for a real surprise here.
Gail Mancuso has dominated the Directing race for solid, albeit traditional, work over the last few years. This year, it’s very likely voters will come to embrace the ever-expanding definition of TV comedy aesthetic. My personal choice would be Soloway, who gives Transparent an indie vibe and a touch of melancholic absurdity. Her direction of the episode, “Best New Girl,” is ambitious and alive. But this category is stacked. On the one hand, you’ve got Phil Lord and Christopher Miller’s work on the Last Man on Earth pilot, among the most inventive and surprising network half-hour pilots I’ve ever seen. And on the other is the farewell episode of Veep’s Armando Iannucci – his marvelous and precise calibration of “Testimony,” a brazenly against-type episode for the series. I have a sneaking suspicion that voters will give the Veep mastermind a farewell hug, but this is a close one. And as for Writing, Soloway is the runaway favorite for the Transparent pilot. This branch loves rewarding pilots, after all, and the category is without a standout episode to overtake it. (But if it’s a Veep kind of night, expect the season finale to take it.)
PREDICTIONS
Outstanding Comedy Series
Predicted winner: TRANSPARENT
Runner-ups: VEEP; SILICON VALLEY
Should win: TRANSPARENT
Should have been nominated: BROAD CITY
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: JEFFREY TAMBOR, Transparent
Runner-up: None.
Should win: JEFFREY TAMBOR, Transparent
Should have been nominated: THOMAS MIDDLEDITCH, Silicon Valley
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS, Veep
Runner-up: AMY SCHUMER, Inside Amy Schumer
Should win: LISA KUDROW, The Comeback
Should have been nominated: GINA RODRIGUEZ, Jane the Virgin
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: TITUSS BURGESS, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Runner-ups: TONY HALE, Veep; TY BURRELL, Modern Family
Should win: TITUSS BURGESS, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Should have been nominated: T.J. MILLER, Silicon Valley
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: ALLISON JANNEY, Mom
Runner-up: ANNA CHLUMSKY, Veep
Should win: NIECY NASH, Getting On
Should have been nominated: MELANIE LYNSKEY, Togetherness
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: JILL SOLOWAY for “Pilot,” Transparent
Runner-up: SIMON BLACKWELL, ARMANDO IANNUCCI & TONY ROCHE for “Election Night,” Veep
Should win: SIMON BLACKWELL, ARMANDO IANNUCCI & TONY ROCHE for “Election Night,” Veep
Should have been nominated: ANDY DALY ET AL. for “Pancakes, Divorce, Pancakes,” Review
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Predicted winner: ARMANDO IANNUCCI for “Testimony,” Veep
Runner-ups: PHIL LORD & CHRISTOPHER MILLER for “Alive in Tucson,” The Last Man on Earth; JILL SOLOWAY for “Best New Girl,” Transparent
Should win: JILL SOLOWAY for “Best New Girl,” Transparent
Should have been nominated: MATT SHAKMAN for “Charlie Work,” It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Check out analysis of the drama categories here.