The 2014-15 TV season introduced a line of longform productions and performances at the level of what we’re seeing on the big-screen. The ambition, star-power and overall execution of the best of these programs – which are closed-ended and produced like standalone movies – equalled or even outdid what’s being made in the film industry, in which independents struggle with financial constraints and the studio-backed contend with creative limitations. What was once a venue for popcorn biopics has evolved into a haven for diverse, humanistic storytelling – for Olive Kitteridge, American Crime, Bessie and so many others.
Oscar nominees and winners including Maggie Gyllenhaal, Frances McDormand, Richard Jenkins, Queen Latifah, Felicity Huffman, Timothy Hutton, David Oyelowo and Jessica Lange are competing this year with what could be argued as the best performances of their careers – or, more certainly, among them. And yet the amount of limited series and made-for-TV films per year is far less than what we see of motion pictures and television series. They exist in a middle ground.
And so while, on the one hand, the nominees competing here are extremely impressive, the splitting of limited series and TV movie categories has allowed unworthy films to compete. Last year, Emmy voters seemed to finally wake up and get over their affinity for rewarding movie stars. Bryan Cranston beat Matthew McConaughey. Benedict Cumberbatch beat Billy Bob Thornton and Mark Ruffalo. Julia Roberts lost. But this year, by nominating the widely derided Grace of Monaco in its “category’s” top race – Outstanding Made-for-Television Movie – it seems the Television Academy has taken a significant step backward.
Grace of Monaco won’t win. Neither will other incomprehensibly-recognized nominees, like Hello Ladies: The Movie – the mixed-reviewed wrap-up film of a (rare) failed HBO series which didn’t earn a single award nomination from any notable organization – or Nat Geo’s Killing Jesus. It will go to HBO’s Bessie, a fine, intermittently powerful but severely flawed biopic stuffed with terrific performances. Another network competitor, Nightingale, earned star David Oyelowo the best reviews of his career but the film itself was deemed an ambitious technical experiment that didn’t wholly work. It won’t win, and it probably shouldn’t be nominated, but in this isolated category what else would be?
The weighting of the two top categories is immensely imbalanced; a slew of brilliant limited series competes opposite a middling group of telefilms. Likely to win in the former is HBO’s stellar Olive Kitteridge, having already swept the guild prizes as well as the recently-concluded critics’ circuit. With deserving nominees in all four acting categories, it might even pull an Angels in America and sweep the entire field. (It wouldn’t be unwarranted.) But look at its competition: Sundance’s The Honorable Woman, a vital work of political art that also stands as one of the era’s most eminent examples of auteur television; ABC’s American Crime, Oscar winner John Ridley’s provocative, luminous tapestry of contemporary racial conflicts in America; PBS’ Wolf Hall, a stylish period drama that slowly reveals itself as a radically modern update of its network’s tired formula. Replace the final nominee, FX’s excited but overworked American Horror Story, with Bessie (or Starz’s taut miniseries The Missing) and you’ve got one hell of a lineup. Within the competition, I suppose voters could lean on their love for British drama and go for Wolf Hall. But as it stands, HBO gets two big prizes for the value of one.
Assuming Olive Kitteridge has as good of a night as most are expecting, Frances McDormand is the favorite in a dense Best Actress field. For all of the complaints surrounding last year’s equivalent Oscar race, you can’t get much better than this: Maggie Gyllenhaal’s wrenchingly expressive performance as The Honorable Woman; Queen Latifah’s commanding star turn in Bessie; Felicity Huffman’s devastating meticulousness in American Crime; Jessica Lange’s freeing shift to camp in American Horror Story; Emma Thompson’s expert interpretation of Sweeney Todd’s Mrs. Lovett. There’s not a bad apple in this bunch; to the contrary, it consists of six long-respected actresses getting to do work that their traditional medium (film) is no longer affording them. Though Gyllenhaal won the Golden Globe and Huffman is an Academy favorite going tantalizingly against-type, McDormand’s victory would epitomize this trend, as the actress – of middle-age, in a role of subtlety and specificity – has never been boring enough for the mainstream. Here, she’s right at home.
Richard Jenkins, as the male lead in Olive Kitteridge, faces stiffer competition – but he’s absolutely in this thing, and I think his SAG win in January gives him a slight edge. The longtime character actor, so great for decades in roles ranging from broadly comic (Burn After Reading) to potently dramatic (The Visitor), hits a career peak in the HBO tragicomedy, showcasing his arsenal of abilities. But he’s second banana to McDormand, and his work is quieter than hers. David Oyelowo, conversely, is as flamboyant, tortured and big as can be in the erratic one-man show Nightingale. It’s a performance many critics have dubbed equal to or better than his brilliant MLK turn in Selma, which can’t hurt. The fast-rising actor was infamously overlooked by Oscar earlier this year, a snub that the Television Academy is likely collectively aware of and may want to correct. But wait, that’s not all! Mark Rylance, fresh off his third Tony, is in with a whopper of a role in Wolf Hall. Considering how tight this category is, and how respected Rylance is as an actor of the screen and stage, we could be in for an upset here. The great news? Regardless of what the outcome is, I’ll be a whole lot happier than when Eddie Redmayne won for impersonating Stephen Hawking at last year’s Oscars. The acting that’s competing here is simply fuller, more complex and more varied.
For whatever reason, big names carry more weight than usual in longform acting categories – it’s why Julia Roberts was immediately favorited for her Normal Heart work, or why Kathy Bates beat Fargo breakout Allison Tolman last year. With that in mind, Best Supporting Actor probably goes to Bill Murray, already recipient of a Critics’ Choice Award for Olive Kitteridge. He’s excellent in his limited screentime, but it is limited and I could find more deserving contenders here. Among them: Finn Wittrock, the great surprise of a (very) disappointing season of American Horror Story, and Damian Lewis, who puts a deliciously sleazy spin on Henry VIII in Wolf Hall. But if there’s one guy I want on that stage, it’s absolutely Michael K. Williams. The actor should have a shelf of Emmys already, between his adored work on The Wire and his utterly masterful turn on Boardwalk Empire. And he’s great, and quite far from his usual persona, in Bessie. If he wins here – and with HBO behind him, there’s no reason why he can’t – I’ll take it as a cumulative acknowledgment of his work.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens in Best Supporting Actress, which has been a reliable source of upset victories. Last year’s surprise winner Kathy Bates is back with a similarly extravagant character and performance; Angela Bassett, too, is again right along with her. But this category has more intrigue than usual. Regina King isn’t front-and-center in American Crime – that her under-the-radar role was recognized indicates a surprising level of affection for the actress and her work here. Don’t be surprised, especially since it seems unlikely that the widely-nominated Crime will triumph elsewhere. There’s also Mo’Nique, a recent Oscar winner mounting a nice comeback in Bessie, and Zoe Kazan, whose win here would cement a clean sweep for Olive Kitteridge. And how could I forget Sarah Paulson, the third American Horror Story actress nominated here? Her work in Freak Show is her most affecting and substantial yet for the anthology, and after years of unjust losses this might just be her time.
Bessie, Wolf Hall, The Honorable Woman and Olive Kitteridge all compete both for Writing and Directing, an indication of their superior standing among longform productions this year. The fifth and final runner there is absolutely American Crime, which is expectedly nominated in Writing but missed out on a Directing nod. Tellingly, that branch favors singular behind-the-camera visions – each of the four aforementioned productions were helmed by one person, whereas American Crime staffed directors near-episodically. An Oscar-nominated filmmaker behind the year’s most lauded work, Olive Kitteridge’s Lisa Cholodenko is the clear frontrunner for Best Directing. Writing, however, rarely goes as planned – last year, Fargo and The Normal Heart lost to Sherlock, and the year before Behind the Candelabra and Top of the Lake fell to The Hour of all things. Given its aggressive lyricism, The Honorable Woman might be a fitting victor – and it gives voters the perfect opportunity to reward the substantial contributions of writer-director Hugo Blick. Watch out for John Ridley’s American Crime pilot, too. Remember: for whatever reason, Emmy voters love Oscar winners.
PREDICTIONS
Outstanding Limited Series
Predicted winner: OLIVE KITTERIDGE
Runner-up: WOLF HALL
Should win: OLIVE KITTERIDGE
Should have been nominated: THE MISSING
Outstanding Made-for-Television Film
Predicted winner: BESSIE
Runner-up: None.
Should win: BESSIE
Should NOT have been nominated: GRACE OF MONACO
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Film
Predicted winner: RICHARD JENKINS, Olive Kitteridge
Runner-ups: DAVID OYELOWO, Nightingale; MARK RYLANCE, Wolf Hall
Should win: RICHARD JENKINS, Olive Kitteridge
Should have been nominated: TOM HOLLANDER, A Poet in New York
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Film
Predicted winner: FRANCES MCDORMAND, Olive Kitteridge
Runner-ups: FELICITY HUFFMAN, American Crime; QUEEN LATIFAH, Bessie
Should win: FRANCES MCDORMAND, Olive Kitteridge
Should have been nominated: FRANCES O’CONNOR, The Missing
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Film
Predicted winner: BILL MURRAY, Olive Kitteridge
Runner-ups: MICHAEL K. WILLIAMS, Bessie; DAMIAN LEWIS, Wolf Hall
Should win: MICHAEL K. WILLIAMS, Bessie
Should have been nominated: MICHAEL GAMBON, The Casual Vacancy
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Film
Predicted winner: SARAH PAULSON, American Horror Story: Freak Show
Runner-ups: REGINA KING, American Crime; ZOE KAZAN, Olive Kitteridge
Should win: REGINA KING, American Crime
Should have been nominated: KHANDI ALEXANDER, Bessie
Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Film
Predicted winner: HUGO BLICK, The Honorable Woman
Runner-ups: JANE ANDERSON, Olive Kitteridge; JOHN RIDLEY, American Crime
Should win: HUGO BLICK, The Honorable Woman
Should have been nominated: ANDREW DAVIES, A Poet in New York
Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Film
Predicted winner: LISA CHOLODENKO, Olive Kitteridge
Runner-up: DEE REES, Bessie
Should win: LISA CHOLODENKO, Olive Kitteridge
Should have been nominated: JOHN RIDLEY, American Crime