This is the time of year when we get a fairly good idea of who will be walking away with Oscars come February.
Indeed, between the choices of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) and Screen Actors Guild (SAG), much has come into focus on the acting side of things. Leonardo DiCaprio’s “finally!” narrative looks unstoppable in Best Actor. Considering the Academy’s disproportionate love for Room, it’d be strange if Brie Larson didn’t snag Best Actress after sweeping the precursor circuit. Sylvester Stallone wasn’t nominated by SAG – beautifully, the organization recognized the egregiously-snubbed Idris Elba instead (more on that in a minute) – but the volume of support behind his Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice wins should provide the necessary momentum. In a tight, confounding Best Supporting Actress field, Alicia Vikander has emerged as the clear industry choice. At this point, it’ll be a shock to see any of these four actors lose.
But the more these precursor groups weigh in, the more muddled the Best Picture (and Director) category appears. Without question, this is the tightest race for the industry’s top award since 2006, when Little Miss Sunshine won the big prizes from SAG and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) before The Departed surged late to a win. While Birdman was hardly the predicted winner last year, by the time it had stunned with a PGA win and doubled-down at SAG, it was the obvious choice. 12 Years a Slave lost SAG in 2013 to the more ensemble-friendly American Hustle – and the Directors Guild of America (DGA) prize to Alfonso Cuaron, for his Gravity feat – but the movie had the vital narrative to push it through.
As for this year, though? The Big Short surprised bigtime with a PGA win – and, like Birdman, it was considered ensemble-friendly enough to keep the winning streak rolling with a SAG triumph. But that didn’t happen. Instead, the actors threw a bone to one-time frontrunner Spotlight, the understated, measured antidote to Adam McKay’s chaotic Wall Street comedy. And we’ve still got DGA to go – another strong Oscar predictor. Will they go with McKay or Tom McCarthy and essentially wrap this thing up? Or will they go with the flashier directorial work of George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) or reigning champ Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant) and complicate it even further? In case it hasn’t been clearly conveyed in this space already, the group could vote in any of the four men’s favor.
Of course, Oscar pundits craving a little chaos are rooting for a Miller/Inarritu upset. But even if one of the two wins – and, if they do, they’ll repeat with the directing prize at the Oscars – the Best Picture race is still in all likelihood down to The Big Short and Spotlight. As the Oscar race often does, it’s coming down to two issue-driven films that express themselves via incredibly different methods. (Think Argo/Lincoln of 2012, The Social Network/The King’s Speech of 2010 or The Hurt Locker/Avatar of 2009.) I saw Spotlight and thought it superb, but also immediately questioned its awards potential – it’s a far quieter movie than what the Academy typically rewards, and its technical proficiency can’t match up to the audacity (one-take Birdman; silent Artist; urgent Hurt Locker) often recognized in Best Picture. The Big Short is more visceral, and its Wall Street critique is certainly more attuned to contemporary discourse, but its broad comedy and messy structure don’t exactly jibe with historical preference, either.
To my – and, apparently, most critics’ – mind, Spotlight is the best movie nominated for Best Picture this year. It’s polished and tight and genuine, but also deeply complex and deceptively ambitious. The Big Short, conversely, wears its worth on its sleeve. Part of me suspects that the latter is still the odds-on favorite; I can imagine McKay winning Best Director far more easily than McCarthy, and the movie gets to your gut in a way that Spotlight doesn’t. The PGA is the only group other than the Academy to use a preferential ballot, and that Big Short won there speaks volumes. It’s a movie that is bound to collect a healthy number of first-place votes – as well as, for detractors, some last-place rankings – while Spotlight should consistently rank in the top three or four of voters’ ballots. One is the passionate choice, the other the consensus choice. It’s close.
And yet, as awards season dies down, my mind is on a different topic entirely.
Between SAG, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes and various other industry prizes, television programs have received honors side-by-side with the movies over the past month. For the small-screen, we’ve seen exceptional, long-underrated character actors like Maura Tierney, Constance Zimmer, Carrie Coon, Oscar Isaac and Rami Malek walk away with major (and deserved) hardware for the first time; groundbreaking representations get recognized in the form of major wins for Transparent, Orange Is the New Black and Master of None; and a refreshing variety of actors of color snag victories, from repeat champs Viola Davis, Andre Braugher and Uzo Aduba to newbies Idris Elba, Queen Latifah and Gael Garcia Bernal. This isn’t to say that the choices on the TV side don’t get absurd, too – Lady Gaga beating Kirsten Dunst and Felicity Huffman? Downton Abbey again, SAG? – but there’s so much happening there that it renders the film awards relentlessly monotonous in comparison.
After winning his second SAG award of the night for his acclaimed ongoing turn in Luther, Idris Elba walked up to the podium with a smile on his face. Every single acting winner on the television side was honored for playing a character who’s either black (Davis, Aduba, Elba, Latifah) or LGBT* (Jeffrey Tambor, Kevin Spacey). That’s pretty remarkable. And Elba took note: he joked, pointedly, into the microphone, “Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to diverse TV!” as an encapsulation of not just the ceremony, but the past few years. It was the story of the night – Latifah and Davis spoke directly about past experiences of image-based rejection, while Aduba dedicated her second straight win to the many worthy actors struggling to get noticed – until Spotlight pulled off an upset that had awards journalists salivating. Just like that, it was back to the Oscars.
The Big Short and Spotlight are both terrific movies – and, given the unusual contours of the 2015 race, they’ve given us one hell of a fight to the finish – but as year-end representatives, they feel stuffy and closed-in compared to what we’re seeing honored as the best in television. These awards only intermittently get it right, but they do provide an annual snapshot to stick into the photo album. For PGA, we’ll see film winner Big Short placed beside TV winner Transparent. For the Critics’ Choice, Spotlight opposite the politically vibrant Mr. Robot (created by and starring Egyptian-Americans) and culturally conscious Master of None. For SAG, it’s Spotlight again, this time alongside Orange Is the New Black. You get the picture(s). I’m an avid Oscar watcher, and this of all years should have me giddy. But over and over, I’m stuck looking at what they – what movies – are sorely missing.