FILM
Best Motion Picture – Drama: Spotlight (alt: The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy’s journalism drama has been the Oscar frontrunner to this point – and from The Social Network to Boyhood, this is one category where the Globes tend to fall in line.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (alt: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo)
It’s said to be Leo’s year for the Oscar, and the Revenant star has already been a favorite with the HFPA. Unless Bryan Cranston is rising as quickly as pundits seem to think he is – for his chances at the Oscar, SAG will be a more important indicator – this should go to DiCaprio.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama: Brie Larson, Room (alt: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn)
The broader race seems to be down to Larson and Ronan. The difference here is simple: Globe voters gave Room a Best Picture nomination, but didn’t do the same for Brooklyn.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical: The Big Short (alt: The Martian)
Two strong Oscar players, both of whom performed well with the HFPA – a tough call. We’re thinking Big Short has the advantage for the simple fact that The Martian going into the comedy category was a controversial move, even among voters. Given how relatively small the HFPA is, that might do the necessary damage to Ridley Scott's sci-fi darling.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical: Matt Damon, The Martian (alt: Steve Carell, The Big Short)
Carell and Christian Bale are both up for The Big Short, and a vote split is fairly likely. That leaves Matt Damon – who, not so coincidentally, is the most likely Oscar nominee of the bunch.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck (alt: Lily Tomlin, Grandma)
No major Oscar players – or even Globe players – here, so this one could go in a few directions. Schumer feels like the popular choice, fresh off of Emmy and Critics’ Choice wins for her work in television. But Lily Tomlin is a double-nominee, and the HFPA likes to put legends on their stage.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (alt: Sylvester Stallone, Creed)
This might be the most competitive category of the night. Elba, Stallone and Mark Rylance are carrying serious Oscar heat and are considered plausible winners at this point – and that’s to say nothing of the passionate pockets of support for Michael Shannon and Paul Dano, who round out the category. Rylance and Stallone have their advantages – major respect within the industry for the former; an irresistible comeback narrative for the latter – but the HFPA has bestowed love upon Elba before, and his work in Beasts of No Nation reveals a whole new side of the actor. We’ll bet on an upset this time.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (alt: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight)
The Globes don’t always tell us much, but this will be an important moment for this category: Vikander, who is nominated in lead for The Danish Girl against her campaign’s wishes, is here, too, for Ex Machina. But can she win with it? At the very least, the HFPA seems sufficiently behind her.
Best Director: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (alt: Todd Haynes, Carol)
The group went all-in for Mad Max, and this is the obvious place to recognize Miller’s singular achievement. It’s very likely – but don’t count out Haynes, who has the Weinstein machine and a healthy Carol haul to fuel him, or Ridley Scott, who’s in a confoundingly similar position to Miller. Another tough call.
Best Screenplay: Adam McKay & Charles Randolph, The Big Short (alt: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight)
Brainy comedies tend to fare well here – Birdman, despite losing elsewhere, triumphed in this field just last year. And the Big Short script is nothing if not inventive. Even if the Adam McKay film flails elsewhere, this seems like the place where voters would embrace it. Of course, if Spotlight love runs deep, this is where its secondary victory will come.
Best Animated Film: Anomalisa (alt: Inside Out)
Our craziest prediction for the night. Inside Out is the certain Oscar winner – and, let’s be honest, the odds-on favorite here – but word is that the HFPA is crazy for Charlie Kaufman’s animated stunner, and every once in awhile they like to shake things up. Weirder things have happened.
Best Foreign-Language Film: Son of Saul (alt: The Club)
Not much room here – Son of Saul will probably sweep this awards season, beginning here.
Best Original Song: “One Kind of Love,” Love and Mercy (alt: “Love Me Like You Do,” 50 Shades of Grey)
Best Original Score: Carter Burwell, Carol (alt: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight)
TV
Best Television Series – Drama: Mr. Robot (alt: Game of Thrones)
The HFPA loves hot new television series – and it’s not every year that a series as acclaimed, urgent and popular as Mr. Robot comes around. Even with Game of Thrones’ recent Emmy win – and, true, the series has yet to win a Golden Globe – Mr. Robot seems like a near-certainty. Watch out for Empire, too.
Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot (alt: Wagner Moura, Narcos)
See above, with the caveat that if the group wants to shake things up a bit, they also quite liked Narcos and might bail out Netflix with a trophy for its lead actor. Not terribly likely, but possible.
Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama: Taraji P. Henson, Empire (alt: Caitriona Balfe, Outlander)
Believe it or not, Empire is a new show to the HFPA – its debut season premiered in January of 2015, so this is its first round of eligibility. They liked the drama enough to situate it in the top category, but more importantly, Henson’s combination of hype and acclaim is what Golden Globes were made of. They loved Outlander, so maybe they throw a curveball and hand it over to Balfe, but it would be tragic if Cookie Lyon was denied the gold.
Best Television Series – Comedy/Musical: Transparent (alt: Veep)
The crop of new shows in this field is weak – especially since the reigning winner, Transparent, is even stronger, back with better reviews and bigger buzz. The Globes were the first to catch onto Jill Soloway’s phenomenon, and they’ll likely remind the industry of that fact this time around.
Best Actor in a Television Series – Comedy/Musical: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent (alt: Patrick Stewart, Blunt Talk)
Again, it’s just hard to imagine anyone in this field taking down Tambor. Maybe voters liked Mozart in the Jungle enough to give it to Gael Garcia Bernal? Probably not. The most plausible spoiler is Patrick Stewart of the middling Blunt Talk – no one seemed to care about the show, but it’s Patrick Stewart, and in certain years that kind of narrative has been enough for the funky HFPA.
Best Actress in a Television Series – Comedy/Musical: Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie (alt: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep)
We mentioned Tomlin as a double-nominee earlier, and this feels like the place she could pull off a surprise win. Gina Rodriguez doesn’t seem like the two-time winning type, and the rest of the new contenders – Rachel Bloom, Jamie Lee Curtis – are in shows that are either too low-profile or too divisive. Weirdly, Julia Louis-Dreyfus has yet to win a Globe for Veep, and given the contours of the category, this represents her best chance. But we’re still feeling a Tomlin win here.
Best Miniseries or TV Film: Fargo (alt: American Crime)
Fargo won this just last year – weird for a miniseries category, right? – but its second season was met with even more adoration. Yet the HFPA despises complacency, and there are several worthy contenders ready to swipe in and surprise. Wolf Hall, which has really underperformed on the awards circuit, has a good shot, and so does American Crime – the ABC anthology is in the midst of a lauded second season, and has the social prescience and heavyweight cast that could make voters salivate. There’s room to play, even if Fargo is the clear frontrunner.
Best Actor in a Miniseries/TV Film: Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall (alt: David Oyelowo, Nightingale)
The only category this year where literally anybody can win. Patrick Wilson could easily ride a Fargo sweep. Idris Elba has won the category before, and is a double nominee. Mark Rylance is also a double nominee, competing for a show Globe voters seem to like. Oscar Isaac probably has the category’s most acclaimed performance, in Show Me a Hero. And David Oyelowo is a tour-de-force in Nightingale – plus, that Selma scent hasn’t quite worn off yet. We’re betting on Rylance here, in part because we’re predicting that Elba beats him on the film side of things. But honestly, it could go any which way.
Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Film: Kirsten Dunst, Fargo (alt: Queen Latifah, Bessie)
Conversely, this one feels like a very safe bet: Dunst reinvents her image with a superb performance in Fargo. Even if the show itself loses, she’s sitting pretty right now.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series/Miniseries/TV Film: Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline (alt: Tobias Menzies, Outlander)
Here’s where voters likely throw a bone either to Netflix or Starz, both of which we’re projecting will be shut out elsewhere despite robust nomination totals. Ben Mendelsohn generated such praise for Bloodline, and is without a win yet for his role – his work seems right up the HFPA’s alley. (Being Australian doesn’t hurt for this foreign group, either.) But Menzies is the Outlander standout, and the group showered his show with unexpected love. Oh, and if they just go nuts for Mr. Robot, we suppose Christian Slater shouldn’t be discounted either.
Best Supporting Actress in a Series/Miniseries/TV Film: Maura Tierney, The Affair (alt: Regina King, American Crime)
We’re pretty sure this is squarely down to Tierney and King. It may seem like a distant memory, but voters gave The Affair Best Drama just last year – and for a season that pales in comparison to what was produced in 2015. Regardless, the fact that they nominated Tierney – who owned the season – indicates they’re still paying attention, and as wins for the likes of Katey Sagal and Chloe Sevigny have proven in the past, sometimes that’s enough. But King owned 2015: the Globes will also likely have her tremendous Leftovers performance in mind as they vote on the category, and that can only bolster the newly-minted Emmy winner's chances. It’s close.