Despite indications to the contrary, this year's Oscar nominations were very much lacking in surprise. Critics in College correctly forecast 18 of the 20 acting nominees, 7 of the 8 Best Picture candidates and 8 of the 10 nominated screenplays. This is not unusual – the Academy is the last organization to weigh in on a long, drawn-out awards season, during which time a general consensus tends to take shape before final ballots are turned in. Indeed, even this year's “upsets” weren't exactly shockers: Tom Hardy, the most unexpected acting nominee (Supporting Actor), made the Critics' Choice shortlist and was part of a surging late-breaker in The Revenant (think Jonah Hill in Wolf of Wall Street), and we forecast that both Charlotte Rampling and Jennifer Lawrence would make the Best Actress five if Alicia Vikander wasn't bumped up to lead for The Danish Girl (which she wasn't).
As often happens, the season's best predictor for acting nominations was the Critics' Choice Awards. Despite lacking crossover membership, the organization is comprised of a large, diverse body of film journalists whose choices best reflect the type of “consensus” we see within the Academy. Indeed, the Broadcast Film Critics' Association (BFCA) didn't miss a single Best Picture nominee, and recognized all but one of the Academy's 20 acting selections. (They missed Christian Bale, who with SAG and BAFTA nods had the necessary industry support to push him through.) That's a tough track record to beat – the Screen Actors' Guild, many of whose members are Oscar voters, went just 13/20 in actors – especially with so many competitive players circulating the supporting fields.
So as for who made it in, there's little to analyze. Instead, the stories to come out of this year's Academy selections once more refer to what wasn't recognized. After the Producers' Guild of America (PGA) omitted both Carol and Room from their Top 10, it became evident that only one of the films would be able to fit into the Best Picture lineup. While Carol seemed like the stronger player, given its critical prowess and dominant performance at BAFTA, the Academy ultimately went with Room, to the point where even its director, Lenny Abrahamson, fit into the final five over The Martian's Ridley Scott. (Critics in College saw Abrahamson as a spoiler months ago; we weren't as shocked as some by his inclusion.) Another film whose precursor success didn't translate into anything beyond a single Oscar nomination (for writing): Straight Outta Compton. Finally, perhaps the most surprising absence in the performance categories this year was Idris Elba, who between recognition from SAG, the Golden Globes and BAFTA seemed like a safe bet for his work in Beasts of No Nation. (He was certainly deserving.)
With the lack of love for Carol, Straight Outta Compton, Beasts of No Nation and others like Creed – which, oddly, never really had a presence on the circuit beyond Sylvester Stallone – the Academy once more provided a startlingly hetero-white slate of films. Only The Martian, of the eight Best Picture nominees, had a notable person of color in its cast; between The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room and Spotlight, there wasn't an LGBT* character in sight (and the same goes for Martian there, too). This is concerning, given the clear worthiness – and ostensible awards potential – of movies like Carol and Creed in particular. The former was directed by a long-respected, widely-acclaimed filmmaker; the latter by one of the industry's clearest rising stars. While it's reasonable to suggest that Carol came close to a Best Picture nomination – and unreasonable to relegate it to the “responsible choice” for awards groups, considering gay-themed American films are few and far between – the fact is that the absence of these movies, actors and directors provides stark proof of an industry-wide epidemic. When the industry standard for “best of the year” includes 20 white actors and no films representing the experience of LGBT* people or people of color, there is a dramatic problem that's in need of confronting.
The news isn't all bad. Three out of eight Best Picture nominees are women's stories, in Brooklyn, Room and Mad Max; given how recent years have shaken out, that's a major improvement. The scales of the movies represented here are also admirably diverse, from low-budget indies (Room, Brooklyn) to mid-sized “issue” movies (The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Spotlight) to artful blockbusters (The Revenant, Mad Max). It's right to lament the representational issues evident within this year's slate. But it's no less justified to look at this lineup of eight films and feel good about the range of movies acknowledged.
While the Golden Globes took place after Oscar voting, many of last Sunday's winners are heading into the home stretch with vital momentum. After being passed up by BAFTA and SAG, Stallone wasn't a lock for an Oscar nomination. Now that he's got one, he's the clear frontrunner – his humble Globe speech was preceded by a standing ovation from a big chunk of Academy members, and it's difficult to imagine Mark Rylance pulling ahead at this point. The Best Actor and Actress wins for Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson boosted their frontrunner statuses as well – with the former similarly earning a standing ovation with his (debatable) “overdue” narrative taking effect, and the latter introducing herself to the big-time after a string of acclaimed indie performances. The Globes threw another contender into Supporting Actress, a category deeply in flux, in Kate Winslet. She was an assured nominee for Steve Jobs, but of the kind that likely wouldn't get a serious look for a win. With a Globe under her belt – and with her competition, in Rooney Mara and Vikander, dealing with category fraud controversies and lesser name recognition – she's suddenly in the thick of a race that could go a few different ways.
You could take The Revenant's Golden Globe dominance as a make-up for their ignorance of Birdman last year, but its haul of 12 Oscar nominations is too significant to ignore. I could see the film beating out the more chaotic Big Short and more measured Spotlight – its biggest Oscar competition, unquestionably – with the PGA, who tend to go for bigger-budget fare. If that happens, anything goes. I still think Spotlight has the advantage right now, as it snuck into Film Editing despite heavy competition there and earned two on-the-bubble acting nominations. But the Picture/Director races seem the most up-for-grabs at this point, which is awfully exciting. Even The Big Short, sure to benefit from the Academy's preferential balloting system, is in this.
But to go back to the films that are not a part of this conversation. It's reductive to express outrage over the snub of something like Straight Outta Compton – which had the best chance, of movies with a majority non-white cast, to be included – since, as a clunky, mixed-reviewed and overstuffed biopic, it seems to have been replaced by something better anyway (Room). Critical darlings like Carol flame out with the industry all the time. Creed's campaign kicked off very late, and was ultimately doomed due to Warners Bros.' severe mishandling of their contenders. (They initially had Black Mass as their top priority with Mad Max on the backburner, before switching gears when the Johnny Depp vehicle died out.)
Yet these films did, in a way, miss out because of their subjects, their stories and their aesthetics. Maybe not directly – no one (I hope) snubbed Todd Haynes because he's gay – but there's something to be said for whom these stories speak to most. Creed and Carol are great movies, and everyone can (and should) appreciate them; they came in with the same apparent advantages and disadvantages as movies like Mad Max or Room. But they're also automatically a step or two behind: Carol and Creed appeal principally to demographics that aren't sufficiently represented in the Academy – and more importantly, in the industry as a whole. The Revenant might be just as “niche” (white macho-men), but then, in its situation that's actually a benefit.
This is the issue. As I've written many times in the past, the Oscars are not a barometer of quality. This award represents an industry reflecting on itself, trying in the process to provide a culturally-salient list of films, performances and technical achievements that deserve recognition and remembrance. But as I also wrote a year ago, a dialogue needs to take place about who, exactly, these awards are for right now. Until 2015, not since 1998 had the Academy failed to recognize a single actor of color for two years in a row. That's an incredibly disturbing statistic. It's unusual that Idris Elba didn't make it through. It's unfortunate that Michael B. Jordan or The Hateful Eight's Samuel L. Jackson couldn't fit into a weak Best Actor category. It's a damn shame that Carol missed out on a Best Picture nomination, given the loud praise that came from critics.
But the real tragedy? These were the only contenders to consider in the first place.