This past week, the Broadcast Film Critics’ Association (BFCA, making up the Critics’ Choice Awards) and American Film Institute (AFI) weighed in on awards season with their 10 picks for Best Picture – and, in the former’s case, on acting, writing and directing categories as well.
Both are solid Oscar prognosticators. The BFCA is a big, diverse organization – and more press-heavy than critic-heavy, anyway – and their nominations express “consensus” as the Academy does better than any other group. Not since 2009 have they missed more than one Best Picture Oscar nominee – which, if you think about it, is a rather striking statistic – and on average they usually omit only one acting nominee per category. This year their Best Picture nominees were The Big Short; Bridge of Spies; Brooklyn; Carol; Mad Max: Fury Road; The Martian; The Revenant; Room; Sicario; and Spotlight – thereby overlooking Inside Out, Straight Outta Compton, The Hateful Eight, Beasts of No Nation, Trumbo and others.
AFI is a much smaller group, with a different jury of around 20 academics, critics and industry-people voting on 10 films each year. But, for whatever reason, they fare well too, only missing out on around one Best Picture nominee per year – though, that’s in addition to the annual foreign film, such as Philomena or Amour, that they do not consider. In any case, AFI replaced the BFCA’s choices of Sicario and The Revenant with Inside Out and Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and put Straight Outta Compton in the place of the ineligible Brooklyn. It should be noted that over the last five years, no film eligible for and omitted by both groups has gone onto a Best Picture nomination. Again, that’s a big deal, theoretically whittling the list down to 13 films. And if we consider these groups in light of the decisions made by the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), the race really starts to come into focus.
Between SAG, the HFPA, the BFCA and AFI, only two films have scored across-the-board Best Picture recognition: Spotlight and The Big Short. Given how chaotic this race has turned out to be, this is a strong indication that they’re the frontrunners right now, and nominations seem assured. Behind them – meaning, those that have been recognized everywhere but SAG – are Room, The Martian and Carol, which despite reports of an iffy industry reception has been one of the power players on the circuit thus far.
The Revenant being passed over by AFI is a little disconcerting – again, the organization usually misses just one Best Picture Oscar nominee per year (Grand Budapest, Dallas Buyers Club the last two) along with the usual ineligible foreign film (Brooklyn this year; Amour, Philomena and The Theory of Everything the last three). The industry crossover is minimal, but with reviews a little divisive and so many other films in the mix, its absence here definitely gives me pause – especially since, as you might have noticed above, Oscar tends to replace AFI selections with indies, not big-budget fare. And The Revenant was far from the only contender snubbed by AFI – The Hateful Eight, Creed, Steve Jobs, Trumbo and Beasts of No Nation have now all missed out with both BFCA and AFI. Those first three have been ignored by every organization, which is not exactly a good omen, while after surprise SAG recognition both Trumbo and Beasts have been silent as well.
It’s been a good week for Bridge of Spies and Mad Max: Fury Road – the former of which had been underperforming previously, and the latter of which continues to ride a powerful awards-season tidal wave. Both were cited by AFI and the BFCA, and when adding that to Spies’ Spielberg/Hanks prestige and Mad Max’s Golden Globes triumph, they’re looking stronger by the day. AFI also threw a bone to Inside Out, which the BFCA snubbed, and Straight Outta Compton, a crucial placement to build on its ensemble cast nomination from SAG. Both are very much on the bubble right now, and industry recognition next month will be paramount. Due to its campaign presence and the general narrative behind it, I thought that Compton would be the most likely of the three SAG surprises to break out as a real contender – this was a huge step in that direction.
Oh, and yes, AFI recognized Star Wars, which, to anyone paying attention to this awards season, was the least surprising inclusion of the day. The organization pushed back their voting date for the sole purpose of screening the late-breaker, which while admirable certainly put a little extra stock in the film’s chances. It does add a little fuel to the campaign fire, should Disney make a run at it – I’m not holding my breath just yet.
Below, blurbs on the state of the acting categories:
Best Actor: The field seems pretty firmly set at six contenders. Bryan Cranston, Michael Fassbender, Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Redmayne have been recognized by all three groups; Johnny Depp missed out at the Golden Globes, where he’s usually beloved, while Matt Damon and the rest of The Martian were snubbed by SAG. Damon, without the necessary industry recognition, and Fassbender, who has declined to campaign and whose film has flamed out, are at the bottom of this totem pole. And Will Smith and Ian McKellen have been campaigning their hearts out, so perhaps one can will themselves into the five.
Best Actress: Unless category swapping messes things up, Saoirse Ronan, Cate Blanchett and Brie Larson should cruise to the Oscars. Jennifer Lawrence and Charlotte Rampling have rebounded from their SAG omissions nicely with recognition from the BFCA and, in Lawrence’s case, the HFPA, but being passed over by the industry still stings – and Sarah Silverman and Helen Mirren are still lurking possibilities as a result.
Best Supporting Actor: It’s all over the place – only Mark Rylance and Michael Shannon, once thought to be an afterthought in this race, have earned across-the-board recognition. Could Idris Elba and Christian Bale’s SAG nominations be attributed to the guild’s excessive love for Beasts of No Nation and The Big Short, or are their Critics’ Choice omissions anomalous? What about Sylvester Stallone’s lack of industry recognition? And between Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton, which if any of the Spotlight actors will emerge as Oscar contenders? Add Paul Dano, with BFCA and HFPA recognition under his belt, and surprise SAG nominee Jacob Tremblay, and you’ve got one overstuffed category.
Best Supporting Actress: This one’s settling down. Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara remain out-front – again, category confusion pending – with Kate Winslet also sweeping the circuit thus far. Jennifer Jason Leigh was near-ineligible with SAG, but she’s pulled out the necessary nominations since – though I’m somewhat concerned by what appears to be a lukewarm awards response to The Hateful Eight. Both Rachel McAdams and Helen Mirren have been surprisingly strong here, and at this point it looks like at least one will fill out the category. As for which is stronger – Spotlight love or Mirren love – we’ll have to wait and see.
That’s the race for 2015 – major guilds will weigh in after the New Year, at which time we’ll have a better idea of where the industry is leaning. Oscar predictions have been updated HERE. Until 2016...