At last year’s Gotham Independent Film Awards, Boyhood looked like the Best Picture lock: it was the overwhelming critics’ choice, from a lauded indie filmmaker, made very much in the spirit of artistic independence. And then, it lost – to Birdman. What looked like an innocuous, oddball choice from an eccentric group turned out to be the first signal of many that Birdman, a film few considered as a serious Oscar contender, would win the Academy Award for Best Picture.
Gotham has again kicked off awards season this year, along with the other usual suspects, the National Board of Review (NBR) and the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC). None of these three groups overlap with Oscar, and they traditionally make at least a few winners’ picks that fall well outside the realm of “possible” in Oscar terms. Even still, they play an important role. They draw attention to underseen, or perhaps underconsidered, films and actors, and they’ve been known to vault several underdogs to Oscar success. In 2013, NBR awarded Best Picture to Her, a film not really considered on Oscar’s radar but which rode that recognition to several major nominations (and a major win, for its screenplay). Last year, NYFCC kicked off what turned out to be a sweep of the critics’ circuit for Marion Cotillard, of the belgian film Two Days, One Night – that, too, led to a surprising Best Actress nod. These awards have their role, and they – along with other groups – help to shape the long, often frustrating “season.”
This year’s three Best Picture winners couldn’t be more different. NBR went outside-the-box yet again, lobbing for the acclaimed action flick Mad Max: Fury Road – likely the ticket it needed to get into the Oscar conversation. Despite some off-the-wall acting choices, Gotham stuck to the frontrunner for Picture, the journalistic triumph Spotlight, also awarding it Best Screenplay and Ensemble. NBR also highlighted the as-yet-reviewed The Hateful Eight, and specifically Jennifer Jason Leigh’s supporting performance – early word is very strong on that front – and Quentin Tarantino’s screenplay. At a minimum, it looks like QT and his cast will be in the fight once more.
What we might be looking back at most, though, is the NYFCC’s love affair with Carol, Todd Haynes’ swooning period romance. The film won Best Picture, Director (Haynes), Screenplay (Phyllis Nagy) and Cinematography – a total sweep of non-acting categories very rare for an organization that typically spreads the wealth. The film’s Oscar prospects have been a little uncertain, with reports of many members not having seen it and others concerned about its chilly, deliberate aesthetic. Without question, this is a huge boost. Expect Carol and Spotlight, the two best-reviewed live-action films of the year by a fair margin, to duke it out at subsequent contests and emerge together as the press’ choice.
This also marks a major comeback for Carol after failing to earn even top 10 recognition from NBR. The group of “film enthusiasts” typically honors about half of Oscar’s eventual Best Picture nominees, or between four and five. This year, expect their nods for Spotlight, Room, Bridge of Spies and The Martian to repeat with the Academy; for Inside Out, Creed and The Hateful Eight to at least contend; and for the remaining films recognized – Straight Outta Compton, Sicario and, to a lesser extent, Mad Max: Fury Road – to remain on the outside looking in. Still, Fury Road is at least in the conversation now, and some critical and/or guild recognition could thrust it into the thick of the race.
Some actors also scored some much-needed wins. Paul Dano, very much a bubble contender in Supporting for Love & Mercy, managed to win Best Actor at the Gothams (where they don’t differentiate lead and supporting) as a more-than-necessary profile booster. (Best Actress winner Bel Powley, of Diary of a Teenage Girl, should rest content with her upset there.) Over at NBR, the news had to feel good for both Leigh and Creed’s Sylvester Stallone in Supporting Actress and Actor, respectively. Both are looking stronger by the day for nominations, and are emerging as dark horses for the victory. (Though, keep this in mind: The NBR winner for Supporting Actress, often thought to be a serious Oscar contender, hasn’t been nominated by the Academy in the last five years.) I wouldn’t chalk too much up to Matt Damon’s win for Best Actor, which was definitely a part of a general Martian love-fest (Ridley Scott’s direction and Drew Goddard’s adapted screenplay also won), but Brie Larson winning for Room is likely the first prize of many for the Oscar frontrunner.
Larson did lose to the wonderful Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), however, at NYFCC. Brooklyn was another film conspicuously absent from NBR’s list, but that’s not an omission worth losing sleep over – there’s a lot of love for the film out there, and Ronan is so well-liked that even a win doesn’t seem out-of-reach. Her win here cements the competition with Larson, who at this point still holds a considerable edge. In Supporting, Oscar frontrunner Mark Rylance won on the male side of things, while coming out of nowhere – but likely to stick around for a little while, for now at least – is Kristen Stewart, of Clouds of Sils Maria. The Supporting Actress field is fluid and a little thin, and it’s not hard at all to imagine Stewart sneaking in. This is a vital campaign-starter for the actress, who sputtered in and out of the conversation just last year for Still Alice.
But the biggest shock of the week has to be Michael Keaton’s NYFCC win for Best Actor. His work in Spotlight is excellent but restrained, and for the record, he’s competing in Supporting with the Oscars anyway (where a nomination is considered very likely). His win represents a mix of NYFCC throwing a little love Spotlight’s way – again, it’s the other critical favorite, but the group fawned over Carol – and of just how malleable the Best Actor field is at the moment. Last year, there were a slew of worthy performances, from NYFCC winner Timothy Spall to Birdman’s Keaton to the unfortunately snubbed David Oyelowo, to consider. This year, Leonardo DiCaprio’s being handed a winning narrative precisely because no one else can be imagined as the victor. And given this week’s results, that should continue. That said, neither The Revenant nor David O. Russell’s Joy – both of which have been earning decidedly mixed reactions on social media, despite a review embargo – even made NBR’s top 10, and earned nothing from NYFCC either. That makes for a slight setback for the two late-inning heavyweights. But we’ve a long way to go yet.
Oscar predictions have been updated HERE. I’ll be back with a column next week on results from more critics’ groups, as well as on the Golden Globe and SAG Award nominations.