It’s been a week of both excellent and unfortunate news for Spotlight, which, with the nominations announced for Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, has affirmed its frontrunner status and then some.
Its would-be Oscar rival The Martian flopped with the actors’ guild, our first indication of where the industry is leaning. Not only was its robust ensemble ignored, but its lead actor Matt Damon was passed over as well. Without any recognition from the actors – who make up the largest branch in the Academy – it will be extremely difficult for The Martian to push to a win. The film rebounded nicely at the Globes with acting, directing and Best Picture (comedy) nominations, but those were mostly restricted to the comedy categories and doesn’t reduce the setbacks of the week.
But against Spotlight’s favor was the severe underperformance of its cast. In Supporting Actor, most pundits expected both Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo to fit into Best Supporting Actor, but they were completely snubbed from both the Golden Globes and SAG. It’s rather firm proof that in a dense and competitive field, the chances of both fitting in are pretty miniscule, so the Spotlight campaign will need to hone in on one actor to push, fast. Ruffalo gives the showier performance, but the momentum seems to be going Keaton’s way, what with his New York Film Critics’ Circle (NYFCC) victory and his admirable losing Birdman campaign of just last year.
And Supporting Actor is looking competitive. SAG recognized a flurry of critical darlings, including Michael Shannon (99 Homes) and Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), who then went onto Globe recognition this morning to maintain momentum. The two were considered fringe candidates, but with critics’ awards under their belt and a healthy dose of major recognition, they’re looking rather solid at this point. SAG also nominated, less-surprisingly, frontrunner Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), an actor’s actor who has taken the lion’s share of critics’ prizes and seems well-positioned to dominate the latter half of the circuit as well. Only thing working against him: Bridge of Spies wildly underperformed this week, with not an ounce of recognition beyond Rylance from either group.
Beyond that, the category gets mighty tricky: Christian Bale was nodded by SAG, likely riding what’s been a fast-moving Big Short train, along with Room breakout Jacob Tremblay. Young actors tend to do better at SAG than they do with the Academy, and Bale’s Big Short – a juicy ensemble piece, in the vein of Trumbo this year – was a big hit with the guild. So each boost should be taken with a grain of salt, even if Bale is a heavily-respected actor in a movie that’s building steam. The list doesn’t end there, anyway: Sylvester Stallone, surprisingly passed over by SAG, rebounded with the Globes and is rumored to have been a victim of late-campaigning practices with the early-voting guild. Also reigniting to some extent was Paul Dano, who with a Globe nomination and a wealth of major critics’ prizes will have a fair amount of passion behind his campaign. Add the Spotlight guys to this lengthy list, and you’ve got one hell of a category. At this point, it’s probably safe to discount Tom Hardy, whose Revenant otherwise did well with the Globes, and Benicio Del Toro, of the early-breaking Sicario that just hasn’t found an angle to play this season.
Over in Supporting Actress, the field is even more muddled – but for a very different reason. Its top two contenders, Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), were both categorized (and nominated) as leads with the Globes, and were both nominated in Supporting at SAG. Here’s the thing: near-inarguably, they are leads of their respective films, and the category confusion is not going to die down overnight. Their absence with the Globes allowed Jane Fonda (Youth) and Helen Mirren (Trumbo) – also nominated at SAG, due in no small part to Trumbo’s adoration within the guild – to sneak in. But Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) expectedly found love with both organizations, while Jennifer Jason Leigh’s campaign kicked off with a Globe nod. (She was essentially ineligible for SAG, since Hateful Eight screeners were not sent out in time.) Rachel McAdams’ surprise SAG inclusion is also curious (since no other Spotlight actor was featured), and puts her in the thick of a messy race. Fonda missing out despite Leigh’s absence, is meanwhile not a good omen for her chances, the Globe nod notwithstanding. The race looks like it’s down to six actresses battling for five slots.
The three frontrunners for Best Actress – Brie Larson, Saoirse Ronan and Cate Blanchett – remain so after a strong week of critical recognition and SAG/Golden Globe nominations. But from there, things were thrown into disarray. Jennifer Lawrence missed out at SAG, which in-part could be attributed to late screeners but is also a fate that didn’t befall The Revenant’s Leonardo DiCaprio, who entered in the same situation. Her Comedy Globes nod was assured, but she’s not quite the lock she once was, and the film more generally – earning mixed reviews – is looking like a longshot contender beyond its leading lady. It was also strange that SAG, a place where veterans like Lily Tomlin and Maggie Smith historically thrive, passed over several prime older contenders in favor of Sarah Silverman, of all people, for I Smile Back. Silverman has been campaigning hard, and earned excellent reviews for this otherwise dour indie. Her status reminds me a bit of Jennifer Aniston’s last year, who came on in a similarly-maligned movie for a celebrated against-type performance. While Aniston was ultimately passed over, I think Silverman has a real shot at this: again, she overtook several SAG-friendly actors for the nomination, and with Mara and Vikander bumped up to Lead at the Globes, she didn’t have much of a shot there, anyway. The category was rounded out by Woman in Gold’s Helen Mirren, which isn’t likely to go the distance – look for Lawrence and/or a critics’ darling like Tomlin or Charlotte Rampling to rebound.
The category that may have most come into focus is Best Actor. Despite the chaos happening around it, a rather sturdy five emerged here: Bryan Cranston of Trumbo, Johnny Depp of Black Mass, Michael Fassbender of Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne of The Danish Girl and – the frontrunner – Leonardo DiCaprio of The Revenant. Given how hard, and for how long, Will Smith (Concussion) and Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes) have been working the circuit, that they were passed over by SAG indicates a significant uphill climb from this stage. Smith and Martian star Matt Damon expectedly resurfaced at the Golden Globes, but with the comedy/drama split and the absence of industry crossover, not much can be attributed to that. We’ve seen Fassbender’s refusal to campaign negate him an assumed nomination in this very category before, and it’s possible that Trumbo dies down as some late-breaking films get seen in greater volumes. But this is a very plausible five at the moment, and without much apparent wiggle room.
Finally, Best Picture: what the hell is this going to look like? Typically, around four of the SAG nominees for Best Ensemble make it to the Oscars’ top category. But among their top five this year are Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton and Trumbo – all of which were considered Oscar long-shots at best – while ensemble-friendly Steve Jobs, Joy, Carol and others were left off. Of those three aforementioned surprises, the most credence should probably be attributed to Beasts’ recognition. The film has no ensemble to speak of – just three actors are included in the award – and it wasn’t even really pushing for this, as the campaigns behind Compton and Trumbo so aggressively were. This indicates a swath of industry support – and, likely, Netflix campaigning power – that went unnoticed. As for the other two, we’re still very much in a wait-and-see period: neither were exceptionally well-reviewed, and are a little broad/blockbuster-y for what the Academy normally recognizes. But this recognition can only bode well. As for those making up the rest of the field – Spotlight and The Big Short – Best Picture nominations now seem all but assured.
The Globes powered The Revenant and Carol back to near-safety after a respectable but unremarkable SAG showing – each were recognized in Picture, Director and lead acting – while also furthering the hopes of Room, Spotlight and The Big Short. The organization left Brooklyn off, which was somewhat surprising, and that stings a little more given that its ensemble failed to make the cut at SAG. But it should still fit in comfortably, given the disparate field. Bridge of Spies has been a near no-show, but again, it hasn’t really had the chance to show its stuff. (If anything, so little from SAG/Globes indicates this is not a power player.) There are also two bubble contenders in The Hateful Eight, which Globe voters recognized in spurts and which was not in contention for major SAG nominations, and Inside Out, the animated critical darling essentially ineligible for the Globes and SAG, that remain enigmatic within the race’s contours. Oh, and Mad Max: Fury Road is continuing its momentum with major Globes recognition – as of now, Universal hasn’t bothered campaigning for it – Creed is still lurking as a populist favorite, and Tom Hooper remains in the hunt for his third straight Best Picture nomination for The Danish Girl. This week has only expanded the number of possible nominees, to upwards of 15. But more than ever, at least, Spotlight looks like the movie to beat.
I’ll be back with a new column next week, following the nomination announcements from the Critics’ Choice Awards and the American Film Institute. Check out newly-updated Oscar predictions HERE.