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| /Variety |
Interstellar
is not the Oscar movie pundits were hoping it would be.
Reviews
for Christopher Nolan’s hotly-anticipated sci-fi epic dropped this morning, and
the consensus is positive with an equal amount of raves and outright dismissals
on either side of it. But for Nolan, embracer of the blockbuster and frequent
cold-shoulder victim of Oscar, a “positive” consensus won’t be enough for a
Best Picture win. Maybe not even a Best Director nomination.
With
the premiere of Interstellar – it’ll
be released in theatres next week – the only potential contenders yet to be
seen are Ava DuVernay’s Selma, Clint
Eastwood’s American Sniper and
Anjelina Jolie’s Unbroken (J.C.
Chandor’s A Most Violent Year and Rob
Marshall’s Into the Woods will be
low-level Best Picture nominees at best, and at worst will find themselves
snubbed across the board). Many have lined up behind Jolie’s Unbroken – and with Interstellar being dropped from the “potential winner” conversation,
more are likely to follow – but, even with the Coen Brothers on script duties
and Roger Deakins lensing the pic, it feels very premature. Jolie’s only
directorial effort to date, the documentary In
the Land of Blood and Honey, was not very
well-received. And it sounds like she’s going for the same level of gore
and brutality that many critics already pushed back against for Blood and Honey. As for Selma, it’s a very late entrant that
will need both good box office and exceptional reviews to propel it to the top –
quite a challenging feat that, by the way, also goes for Eastwood’s American Sniper.
Right
now, three films that have screened and/or have been released – The Imitation Game, Boyhood and Birdman – are
way out front in the Best Picture race and are the only ones with a shot to
win. But they’re all extremely atypical. Boyhood
was released back in the summer and couldn’t even cross $30 million; it’d be
the second-lowest grossing winner ever, behind 2009’s The Hurt Locker. In the way that Hurt Locker had history on its side – Kathryn Bigelow became the
first female to win the directing prize – Boyhood’s
hitherto untested approach to filmmaking gives it a boost. And that says
nothing of its critical acclaim; it’s all but sure to dominate critics’ prizes
beginning in a month or so. But it’s still a small indie that didn’t land with
quite the box office splash that The
Grand Budapest Hotel did, or for that matter, Birdman did.
Birdman
is being discredited as a serious contender because it embraces oddity and
comedy – two qualities rarely associated with Oscar winners. But it has a lot
going for it. It’s a technical breakthrough in cinema – and there’s no shortage
of critics and cinephiles writing at length about that very fact – and so,
despite its humorous edge, it boasts that necessary elitist appeal. Moreover,
critical acclaim is pretty much off the charts, and its box office performance
has been sterling (and looks like it’ll have legs). But, in terms of awards,
what could really drive Birdman is
its accessibly satirical look at the industry and artists. Hollywood-focused
films have great success with Oscar, and Birdman
arrives with a critique just sharp enough to feel fresh, and just soft enough
to attract large groups of voters. Oh, and that killer cast has to be a
frontrunner for Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards – another
important Oscar precursor.
The Imitation Game
feels like the Oscar movie of the bunch – a sweeping, nicely-dressed period biopic
with a mammoth performance at its center – but it’ll have to do better with
critics than it has thus far. If it were to, it’d probably be the frontrunner;
the only other element in its path, really, is similar triumph-heavy biopics
entering the race like Unbroken and The Theory of Everything. As the race
intensifies, this Benedict Cumberbatch vehicle will need to find a way to stand
out from the pack. It’s already won a few Best Picture prizes – from the
Toronto and Hamptons film festivals – so, thus far, it’s done a good-enough job
in that department.
Next
come our lower-level contenders, whose place in the race really depends on how
many sight-unseen contenders successfully land – they are The Theory of Everything, Foxcatcher,
Whiplash, Gone Girl, The Grand Budapest
Hotel and, in more of a longshot mode, Mr.
Turner. That’s 10 films, counting Interstellar
and the three discussed above, and not counting the 3-5 possible players we
have yet to see. In other words, it’s all but guaranteed that these films won’t
all make it in. Mr. Turner is a very
small pic that’s struggled to keep itself in the conversation, while Grand Budapest premiered so long ago
that, despite its robust box office and critical adoration, a Best Pic nod will
be a tough climb. Looking the best, in this pundit’s eyes, are The Theory of Everything – critical
acclaim is low, but it’s a classic Oscar pic sure to get attention for its
actors and technical achievements – and the critically-beloved indie Whiplash, which dominated Sundance in
January and has come roaring back. I like the chances of Foxcatcher more than Gone
Girl; both have been cited as being a little outside Academy tastes, but
early indications are that Foxcatcher has
the critics behind it more forcefully. Gone
Girl is the box office hit of the year, as far as Oscar contenders go, so
it can’t be ruled out either.
Below
is the first set of weekly predictions for the Academy Awards (ranked in order
of likelihood to be nominated). I’ve written a little bit about each of
the acting contenders, since I didn’t get a chance to discuss them in this
space.
Best Picture
1.
Boyhood
2.
The Imitation Game
3.
Birdman
4.
The Theory of Everything
5.
Unbroken (pending)
6.
Foxcatcher
7.
Interstellar
8.
Whiplash
9.
Gone Girl
10. The Grand Budapest Hotel
11. Selma (pending)
12. American Sniper (pending)
13. Into the Woods (pending)
14. A Most Violent Year (pending)
Best Director
1.
Alejandro González-Inarritu for Birdman
2.
Richard Linklater for Boyhood
3.
Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game
4.
Anjelina Jolie for Unbroken
5.
Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
6. Ava
DuVernay for Selma
7. Christopher
Nolan for Interstellar
8. Damien
Chazelle for Whiplash
9. Clint
Eastwood for American Sniper
Best Actor
1.
Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game:
Uniformly terrific reviews for the newly-minted Emmy winner in a Best Picture
frontrunner.
2.
Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything: His
transformative turn as Stephen Hawking is the kind of role that begs – and
earns – Oscar attention.
3.
Michael Keaton for Birdman: This performance isn’t
typical Oscar fare, but as Birdman raises
its stock, Keaton’s comeback narrative looks better and better.
4.
Steve Carell for Foxcatcher: Carell’s jarring turn
from comedy to drama was met with raves, and will certainly be embraced if
voters go for the film. If they don’t? We’ll see.
5.
Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar: McConaughey has
earned across-the-board raves for this performance, and he stands out among
everything beyond the top four that’s been seen.
6. Timothy
Spall for Mr. Turner: It’s a beloved performance, one that won Cannes Best
Actor prize – but eyeballs need to stay on the film.
7. David
Oyelowo for Selma: Oyelowo, in the conversation last year for The Butler, has excellent advanced word
coming in on him for his work as MLK.
8. Bradley
Cooper for American Sniper: He’s been nominated the past two years, and a
short trailer indicated Cooper is once again giving it his all.
9. Oscar
Isaac for A Most Violent Year: Fresh off of a Gotham nomination and with a
lot of momentum, Isaac may just squeeze into the conversation.
Best Actress
1.
Julianne Moore for Still Alice: She is, at this point,
the unchallenged frontrunner: she brings the overdue narrative and a reportedly
shattering performance to a relatively thin category.
2.
Reese Witherspoon for Wild: It’s one of the few
(female) star vehicles this year to earn uniformly strong reviews for the
performer in question and to receive a decent Oscar campaign.
3.
Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl: Assuming voters don’t
totally pass this film over, Pike’s wild breakout turn is probably enough for a
nomination in this field.
4.
Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything: She
plays second banana to Redmayne and hasn’t really cracked Hollywood yet, but
buzz on this performance is incredibly high.
5.
Amy Adams for Big Eyes: Test screenings for the
film aren’t going well, but Adams has a baity part and has earned three
nominations in four years.
6.
Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year: A24 is still considering
dropping Chastain to supporting. There’s also not much news on this
hotly-anticipated performance.
7. Emily
Blunt for Into the Woods: The role won a Tony on Broadway. Despite a string
of great performances, Blunt is nomination-less to date. Can she shake up the
race?
8.
Mia Wasikowska for Tracks: It’s a small movie and often-silent
performance, but Wasikowska is a fast-rising star in the industry. Her Gotham
nomination puts her on the right track, but it’s a long road.
9.
Hilary Swank for The Homesman: Swank earned solid reviews for her
arguably-supporting performance in a movie Oscar isn’t likely to go for.
Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons for Whiplash: This
fearsome turn from the long-respected character actor has Oscar written all
over it.
2.
Edward Norton for Birdman: It’s an audacious,
physically-committed performance that has been a source of praise in many Birdman reviews. The film is doing well;
he looks pretty secure.
3.
Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher: Ruffalo’s physical
transformation and sturdy performance in Foxcatcher
has been considered a strong bet for a while now. But his work is a bit subtle –
new contenders could overtake him.
4.
Tim Wilkinson for Selma: The Oscar nominee and
Emmy winner has a prominent role as LBJ in Selma.
It’s a great role for a highly-respected actor, very likely to get recognized
if he’s got enough to do.
5.
Miyavi for Unbroken: The Japanese musician
is reportedly the breakout of Unbroken.
It’s a performance being compared to Ralph Fiennes in Schindler’s List. If this is the Oscar film pundits think it is, he’s
a near-lock.
6.
Ethan Hawke for Boyhood: Hawke is immensely appealing in Boyhood, but short on screen time and
impact. He’ll need to withstand a wave of as-yet-unseen contenders.
7.
Josh Brolin for Inherent Vice: Critics have made clear that he’s got
the screen time, and the performance to back it up. Recently, however,
contenders in films otherwise snubbed by Oscar have had a much tougher time
getting in.
8.
Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes: Anyone that watched the film’s trailer
saw that Waltz has some scenery-chewing material for this pic. He’s won the
category twice, so he shouldn’t be discounted here.
9. Robert
Duvall for The Judge: Once a category-favorite, Duvall now faces an uphill
climb with The Judge bombing with
both critics and audiences.
Best Supporting Actress
1.
Patricia Arquette for Boyhood: At this point – and for
this category, few performances are sight-unseen – she remains the only actress
that could win this thing.
2.
Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game: All
but sure to get swept up in the Imitation
Game love-fest that will help to characterize this Oscar season. It’s also
been a bit of a comeback year for her, with Begin
Again and Laggies.
3.
Laura Dern for Wild: Given her small
screentime, this isn’t a sure bet. But it’s an emotional showcase for Dern, who
has a lot of goodwill going her way since Enlightened
and with a strong turn earlier this year in Fault
in Our Stars.
4.
Meryl Streep for Into the Woods: No one’s seen it yet,
but Streep is on an astonishing roll right now as far as Oscar nominations are
concerned. Disney confirmed she’ll be campaigned here.
5.
Emma Stone for Birdman: She doesn’t have that
much to do, except for a tremendous monologue early-ish in the film. But a
narrative is building around Stone, working to convince that this will be her
first nominated performance.
6.
Jessica Chastain for Interstellar/A Most Violent Year: She earned
great reviews for Interstellar, even
if many acknowledged she’s pretty far in the background. She’s got a few roles
to work with in this category, one yet to be screened.
7.
Carmen Ejogo for Selma: As Coretta Scott King, apparently Ejogo has
a lot to do in Selma. She might jolt
a category that could use some life.
8.
Julianne Moore for Maps to the Stars: It’s easily the most-talked about
performance in the category – one that won Cannes Best Actress, no less – with
the massive exception that it’ll be getting little-to-no Oscar campaign.
9. Kristen
Stewart for Still Alice: Reviews singled out Stewart as a highlight in the
Julianne Moore vehicle, and SPC recently confirmed they’ll be funding a solid campaign
for her. Maybe?
Screenplay
categories to be discussed next week. Until then…