It’s always hard to predict the Emmy Awards.
This year, I was generally in-line with what the consensus of pundits was thinking. There were some snubs and surprises that I subconsciously saw coming and was kicking myself over earlier today, and others that really threw me for a loop.
Let’s start with what appears to be the biggest snub, Empire. I had it ranked 5/7 in likelihood for a nomination, and most recently wrote “the show, as a splashy nighttime soap that doesn’t take itself especially seriously, can’t be considered a lock for reasons that are rather obvious.” I still thought it was too big a phenomenon to be ignored, but Emmy voters simply don’t like campy soap -- and they don’t like network much anymore, either. It didn’t make the cut, and for the record the Television Academy still celebrated diversity like never before in this year’s nominations, so at least it wasn’t a case of whitewashing. (It didn’t make my top 7, anyhow.)
I had the other six -- Mad Men, Game of Thrones, House of Cards, Orange Is the New Black, Better Call Saul and Downton Abbey -- correctly predicted, and saw Homeland as a sleeper in the race: “I think the familiarity of its name, coupled with a rescued reputation, is especially advantageous in a year where so many serious contenders are unconventional newbies.” The fact is that Emmy voters like familiarity, and Homeland was an old friend they comfortably could turn to in this year of uncertainty. In retrospect, even ranking The Americans as a legitimate alternate was a mistake of wishful thinking. I almost convinced myself to -- God forbid -- predict it, so I’m glad I resisted the impulse.
In the drama acting races, some shockers complimented the usual suspects. My top four predicted in Best Actor and Actress did indeed make it through, while Empire’s Terrence Howard and The Knick’s Clive Owen missed out on the male side and Julianna Margulies and Ruth Wilson did on the female half.
If Empire was to be snubbed in the big category, Howard certainly wouldn’t have enough support to make it through; with that in mind, his omission here isn’t especially unexpected. I knew Owen was on the line -- his situation reminded me of Kelsey Grammer’s in Starz’s Boss, and like that situation, the obscurity of Cinemax as a network ultimately prevented Owen from breaking through. Kevin Spacey and Jon Hamm were certain to return, while Bob Odenkirk and Kyle Chandler were definitely out front of the new contenders. Jeff Daniels was my contender waiting in the wings, and it’s really unbelievable (in the worst way) that the Academy turned to him yet again. But even more shocking? Liev Schrieber, for the totally under-the-radar (and mixed-reviewed) Ray Donovan, bouncing ahead of his much more deserving network-mate Michael Sheen, among others. That’s one nod I never could have predicted.
Taraji P. Henson and Viola Davis made enough noise to easily crack Best Actress, even if their respective dramas didn’t find much love elsewhere. There was also very little doubt in the returns of Robin Wright and Claire Danes. After winning last year, I presumed Julianna Margulies would back it back in as well, despite being fully aware of her vulnerability (The Good Wife had a bad season, and she was snubbed two years ago). And while Ruth Wilson generated great acclaim for The Affair -- the reason I had her predicted -- a nomination for her really made no sense in the context of the show being otherwise ignored. Indeed, she was passed over. Somewhat surprisingly (and delightfully), the Academy invited Elisabeth Moss back in for a final time. Extremely surprisingly (and delightfully), they invited Tatiana Maslany to the party after inexplicably ignoring her for two years in a row. Looks like the Academy finally caught up on Orphan Black.
I didn’t have the guts to follow through with it, but something was telling me The Big Bang Theory’s days were numbered. As I wrote on Sunday: “I could imagine The Big Bang Theory being in a Two and a Half Men-like situation where, eventually, the popularity doesn’t matter and the show gets abruptly dropped.” Against expectations, it happened in favor of an even bigger surprise: the recognition of Parks and Recreation’s final season, which I had dubbed as a longshot. I believe I referred to its chances as a “minor miracle.” No matter, it’s a great demonstration of voters breaking out of old habits. Further, I had the other six nominees predicted right, including great freshmen shows Transparent and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. As I said in my analysis last week, this was a category that could only go in so many ways.
For Comedy Lead Actor, I took a definite risk in dropping multi-year nominees Don Cheadle and Matt LeBlanc for Silicon Valley breakout Thomas Middleditch and the Comedy King, Billy Crystal. While I was on the right track in terms of expecting new blood (which included obvious nominee Jeffrey Tambor), I both had who’d get booted and who’d get included all wrong. First off, LeBlanc and Cheadle returned, yet again, while shockingly it was Jim Parsons -- yes, record-holding category champ Jim Parsons -- getting snubbed in favor of Will Forte, whom I acknowledged as having an “outside shot.” Plus, voters made room for a seventh nominee, an even bigger surprise in Anthony Anderson, doubling down after earning similar recognition at the Critics’ Choice Awards. I don’t think anyone saw that coming, but it was nice to see black-ish get some recognition.
Not too much surprise in Comedy Actress, however. Usual suspects Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Amy Poehler and Edie Falco returned -- those last two for the final time -- while, as predicted, Lily Tomlin used her industry cred to break through despite the otherwise MIA status of Grace & Frankie. I also had a strong feeling that Amy Schumer would ride her huge boom in popularity to a nomination, and that most certainly happened. (Her show, in general, did extremely well with seven nods.) My only miscalculation was likely very slight. I had Ellie Kemper pegged to round out the category; despite being the face of it, she was virtually the only Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt cast member to not get nominated. Instead, it was Lisa Kudrow rounding it out for The Comeback revival, a great surprise as she’s my personal choice for the win.
HBO set a record with 126 nominations. As expected, the network absolutely dominated the movie/mini race with a field-leading 13 nominations for the brilliant Olive Kitteridge and a similarly dominant 12 for Bessie. But the 10 nominations for exiting Boardwalk Empire was a nice surprise, even if the majority were technical, and comedies Veep and Silicon Valley still lead the way among half-hours. And yes, Game of Thrones exploded with over 20 nominations. It was a good day for the pay cable network, even if new drama The Leftovers and Cinemax sibling The Knick couldn’t take off as they perhaps deserved to.
The news may have been best for Netflix, topping 30 nominations despite entering the field of original programming only two years ago. It’s pretty astonishing. The network earned three Series nominations for House of Cards, Orange Is the New Black and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. With a pair of acting nominations, Bloodline fared better than every new drama not named Better Call Saul. (And will be competitive to win in both categories.) Lily Tomlin represented the barely-registering Grace and Frankie. Even Daredevil scored some nominations in below-the-line categories. Plus, in its first real year of campaigning, rival Amazon absolutely exploded: Transparent led all comedies with 11 nominations. What’s so fascinating about this is the rapidity with which voters have taken to streaming programming. Cable channels like FX (No Justified or Americans despite universal acclaim and plenty of loud advocates) still struggle to be taken seriously or even seen by voters, but it seems that the prestige label of Netflix and Amazon has put them in league with HBO and Showtime for this kind of attention. Very interesting indeed; certainly, the original programming gamble has paid off.
As for what’s out front to win: in the drama categories, I’m thinking Mad Men is well-positioned. It came back with 11 nominations including two for writing, indicating that support is back for the wrapped period drama. Nostalgia will play a big factor and AMC knows how to deliver a win. The only show that could dethrone it is definitely Game of Thrones, but that nomination count is definitely a little deceiving; it always leads among dramas, and acclaim has weakened in its later years. In Best Actor, I’d like to think Jon Hamm has it, and goodwill should definitely go a long way here. But Kyle Chandler has a terrific episode for Bloodline that should make him competitive, while Kevin Spacey has been on quite the roll for House of Cards after winning the Globe and SAG. Netflix will be pushing its two leading men here, to be sure. On the Best Actress front, I think Henson’s chances are a lot smaller given what we know about voters’ Empire thoughts, though she could still upset. It will likely be between Viola Davis, the SAG champ, and Claire Danes, two-time winner for the resurgent Homeland.
Comedy should prove to be very interesting. Without any writing or directing nominations, a sixth Modern Family win looks highly improbable. But what beats it? I think three shows have a decent chance: Veep, probably out front at this point with support from a range of branches, Transparent, the hot new show that really struck a chord with the Academy, and Silicon Valley, Critics’ Choice victor and the broadest-skewing of the bunch. Jeffrey Tambor should have no problem winning Best Actor in a rather anemic field, while Julia Louis-Dreyfus will have to fend off some mighty-tough competition in Best Actress. Lisa Kudrow and Lily Tomlin are coming in close behind.
Finally, some brief words on the movie/mini categories. I was right to think that pundits were underestimating The Honorable Woman, which (deservedly) came on strong with acting, writing, directing and Best Limited Series nominations. Still, I think Olive has at least the big category and Best Actress sewn up, with Actor a fight between Richard Jenkins, David Oyelowo and Mark Rylance. Bessie should waltz to victory for Best TV Movie.