Emmy nominations are only a few days away, which means it’s time for some final analysis of the big categories.
At this point, the race for Outstanding Drama Series is wide-open, unusual for a category that tends to be more or less decided by the time of nominations morning. Last year, there were some questions as to whether a resurgent veteran Good Wife or critically-lauded newbie Masters of Sex could squeeze in, but ultimately the category, what with the introduction of True Detective, had very little room for surprise. The year before was even more set in stone, with the final slot a battle between the dethroned third-year drama Boardwalk Empire and the hot freshman House of Cards.
But this year, two of last year’s contenders have departed (Breaking Bad and True Detective), while the Television Academy has expanded the category to seven nominees. With that in mind, the final season of Mad Men should comfortably return alongside bolstered veterans House of Cards, Game of Thrones and Downton Abbey. In another year, the lukewarm reactions to Cards and Downton this season might have been worrisome; here, they’re mainstays in a category with too many uncertainties.
Surely, one of the three “open” slots will go to Orange Is the New Black, which after earning 12 nominations for its freshman season in the comedy section has been mandated to switch to drama. It’s a proven hit with voters and its second season earned even more acclaim than its first. (Not only that, but its third season launched in the prime of voting, an expert strategy on the part of Netflix.)
Things get very murky and exciting after that, however. The fact is that no incoming series fits the typical Emmy bill. If you look at shows that have been nominated for their first seasons in recent years, they’ve been commercial smashes making a healthy dent in the pop culture -- the only ones in the last four years are Game of Thrones, House of Cards, Homeland and True Detective. Theoretically, that should position Empire best: it emerged as a phenomenon over the course of its winter run. But the show, as a splashy nighttime soap that doesn’t take itself especially seriously, can’t be considered a lock for reasons that are rather obvious. If you look at that list of dramas above, you see serious, evocative, pay-cable efforts. Empire is not quite that.
Still, I think the climate is unusual enough where Empire is reasonably safe, especially since the only other new show that’s really struck a chord with viewers is Better Call Saul (for it too comes with obvious challenges). That show’s popularity stems in no small part from its relation to Breaking Bad, a spin-off label that doesn’t exactly scream awards-bait. The show found greater favor with critics over the season and is sure to find recognition in below-the-line technical and acting categories, which should help it out immeasurably. But it still flew under-the-radar and is unlikely to generate much passion, a serious drawback.
The only other new show I think has a fair shot is Netflix’s Bloodline, which -- similar to Saul -- is likely to be recognized in other areas and thus has an immediate leg up. The show is riddled with Emmy bait, from former Best Actor winner Kyle Chandler in the lead to the creators of Damages, a two-time Drama Series nominee, behind it. Plus, the show has expert production values, a tightly-serialized narrative and built in acclaim overtime. But Bloodline was still somewhat divisive and never translated into “hit” territory. Plus, Netflix being behind it is both a blessing and a curse here; while the network has proven very adept and relentless in the game of campaigning, it’s no secret that Bloodline is third banana behind Cards and Orange. Word is this is a well-liked drama in the industry, but I’m not sure it has the momentum to make it through.
Instead, the shows nipping at Saul’s heels are likely returning dramas, one of which is a former winner and the other of which just won Critics’ Choice. The Americans is TV’s best drama, according to an overwhelming critical consensus. One could safely say that this perspective really emerged clearer this year, what with its Critics’ Choice wins and the utter raves coming out of dozens of publications. It might seem like this is the show’s year to break through. But Emmy voters haven’t demonstrated any indication that this is a show they’re remotely interested in rewarding: it hasn’t received a single major nomination outside of a pair of guest noms for Margo Martindale. TV is such a burgeoning and expansive medium that it’s tough to say when a show is really gaining ground, so although it feels like Americans has made a major leap in terms of publicity, the series could very well get across-the-board snubbed yet again.
It’s extremely difficult for a once-dropped show to figure back into the big category, so even a revitalized Homeland has a tough road ahead of it. As shows including Boardwalk Empire, The Good Wife, Dexter, True Blood, Damages, Big Love and more have learned, once you’re out you’re generally gone for good. (One major exception to that rule is Lost, but that came in 2008 when three of six shows were nominated for the first time.) Yet I think the familiarity of its name, coupled with a rescued reputation, is especially advantageous in a year where so many serious contenders are unconventional newbies. Showtime is a solid campaigner, so if they play this right Homeland stands a good chance.
Quite unlike Drama, it’s hard to imagine more than a few scenarios for how Outstanding Comedy Series might shake out. Along with broadcast perennials Modern Family (winner for five years running, ergo, it’s not going anywhere) and The Big Bang Theory are HBO’s critical and commercial smashes Veep and Silicon Valley, running hotter than ever in this TV season. Even with Orange gone, that’s four series right there along with FX’s Louie, which has been nominated for the past two years.
Louie is pretty clearly vulnerable here. The show wasn’t nominated in the big category until its third season and its recently-concluded fifth clocked in with lower viewers and a reduced episode count of eight. The buzz on the show has faded, no question about it. Similarly, I could imagine The Big Bang Theory being in a Two and a Half Men-like situation where, eventually, the popularity doesn’t matter and the show gets abruptly dropped. (The show has never been supported in writing/directing, indicating limited industry support.) But I just don’t think this is the year they’ll go; along with the fact that there are two open spots, there’s a dearth of new contenders.
Of course, there are two freshmen that seem near-certain to make an entrance. Jill Soloway’s breakout Transparent has the might of new player Amazon behind it, and that’s the least of its substantial advantages. Along with critical raves and an already healthily-awarded lead performance at its center, Transparent has been thrust in the middle of our time’s most prescient social movement. The show has won a Golden Globe and a DGA Award, indicating varied avenues of support, and its presence online has allowed it to stick in the conversation despite a premiere back in the fall. A nomination seems inevitable; a win doesn’t sound out of the question. I also very much like the chances of Netflix’s Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, which, with Orange out of the way, has Netflix’s full attention. The show was fairly popular and I think its oddball edge helps it more than hurts it, considering the Netflix/Tina Fey brand combo.
Unfortunately after those two come a string of disappointments. I think most expected FX’s The Comedians to contend, but reviews weren’t very enthusiastic and audience reaction has been even quieter. There’s not much there, even with a star like Billy Crystal attached and the fact that it’s a baity showbiz satire. Along those lines, better reviews would have thrust Netflix’s Grace and Frankie -- its Jane Fonda/Lily Tomlin sitcom -- into the conversation, but reception has been muted and talk has been sparse. In the case of both of these shows, you just don’t sense them making much of an impact. The fact is that the category seems very firm to those above-mentioned seven. I can only imagine one of these series taking over if voters finally dismiss Big Bang, have had enough of Louie or were too preoccupied to check out Transparent and/or Kimmie. It’s possible, but rather unlikely.
Finally, some brief notes on the movie/miniseries categories…
For Outstanding TV Movie (a seriously anemic category), HBO’s Bessie should waltz to the win, with the network’s ambitious Nightingale a distant second. I expect PBS’ Worricker: Salting the Battlefield to take up a spot, if only because it earned better reviews and is on a more awards-friendly network than other relative contenders. Netflix will likely take advantage of the thin race with an aggressive campaign for its inessential special Derek: The Final Chapter. Finally, after Killing Lincoln scored a nod and Killing Jesus was an even bigger hit, it’ll likely figure somewhere into the final five as well.
Other TV films with a chance include PBS’ well-received Foyle’s War: Elise, Lifetime’s star-studded pair Whitney and Stockholm, Pennsylvania and the abandoned, panned but nonetheless widely-known Grace of Monaco.
Outstanding Limited Series, on the other hand, promises to be an interesting race filled with intriguing and competitive programs. At the top of the list has to be HBO’s beloved Olive Kitteridge, which is comfortably out-front to win at this point. ABC’s American Crime wasn’t very highly-rated, but it earned great reviews and generated a lot of industry respect (Due in no small part to its shepherd, John Ridley.) I think it makes the cut. Similarly, PBS’ Wolf Hall is the net’s big player of the year, and it’s earned universal acclaim and has a juicy cast. It should be safe.
It gets a little trickier after those three. I think Sundance’s The Honorable Woman has a better shot than some are giving it credit for. Sundance smartly sent out the miniseries in its entirety to voters, and it earned better reviews than most anything competing here. Its summer release hurts it, no doubt, but I think it can overcome it. This might be the year voters drop the American Horror Story franchise with Freak Show, but I’ll stubbornly predict it until it indeed gets passed over. Those right behind include Starz’s The Missing, which is in a very similar position to Honorable Woman only with less-known actors, and History’s Texas Rising, which critics didn’t care for but has a big cast and a propulsive historic narrative behind it. There’s better fare to choose from, so let’s hope voters get smart in this arena.
What does Critics in College want the nominations to look like? Click HERE to find out.