NOTE: This is the FULL ANALYSIS of current predictions for the 2015 Emmy Award drama categories. This will be updated frequently. Click HERE for my master list of rankings, based on the analysis you see below, or click HERE to see analysis of comedy categories.
Update: 07/14 (final)
Update: 07/14 (final)
THE LAY OF THE LAND
Two of last year’s Outstanding Drama Series finalists are ineligible this time around: Breaking Bad and True Detective. Additionally, the Television Academy expanded the number of nominees in the category from six to seven. So, in effect, we have four returning series -- Mad Men, Game of Thrones, House of Cards and Downton Abbey -- and three open slots.
One of those is likely to be filled by Orange Is the New Black, which after an impressive freshman showing in comedy has been mandated to compete in drama this go-round. Still, that leaves two open slots. New series set to contend are The Affair, Better Call Saul, Bloodline and Empire. Returning series with a shot include The Americans, The Good Wife and Homeland.
Best Actor has literally been halved, with both True Detective leading men and perennial champ Bryan Cranston now ineligible. To add insult to injury, one of the three returning nominees is Jeff Daniels, whose Newsroom went out with a whimper months and months ago. That leaves Jon Hamm, Kevin Spacey and a mass of potential new nominees.
As for Best Actress, the story is very different: all six nominees -- Kerry Washington, Julianna Margulies, Claire Danes, Robin Wright, Michelle Dockery and Lizzy Caplan -- return along with several strong new contenders including Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson. Not only that, but last year’s comedy nominee Taylor Schilling is in the mix as a drama contender, and Elisabeth Moss will be looking to get in for the final season of Mad Men.
Below is analysis of where each of the major Series contenders, along with their contending actors (bolded), stand. Whichever major actors don’t get discussed in that analysis are briefly profiled at the end of this post.
One of those is likely to be filled by Orange Is the New Black, which after an impressive freshman showing in comedy has been mandated to compete in drama this go-round. Still, that leaves two open slots. New series set to contend are The Affair, Better Call Saul, Bloodline and Empire. Returning series with a shot include The Americans, The Good Wife and Homeland.
Best Actor has literally been halved, with both True Detective leading men and perennial champ Bryan Cranston now ineligible. To add insult to injury, one of the three returning nominees is Jeff Daniels, whose Newsroom went out with a whimper months and months ago. That leaves Jon Hamm, Kevin Spacey and a mass of potential new nominees.
As for Best Actress, the story is very different: all six nominees -- Kerry Washington, Julianna Margulies, Claire Danes, Robin Wright, Michelle Dockery and Lizzy Caplan -- return along with several strong new contenders including Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson. Not only that, but last year’s comedy nominee Taylor Schilling is in the mix as a drama contender, and Elisabeth Moss will be looking to get in for the final season of Mad Men.
Below is analysis of where each of the major Series contenders, along with their contending actors (bolded), stand. Whichever major actors don’t get discussed in that analysis are briefly profiled at the end of this post.
RETURNING STRONG
MAD MEN: Matthew Weiner’s beloved period drama will at the very least go out with a final nomination for Outstanding Drama Series. In fact, with an eighth consecutive nod in the category, it will stand alone as the second-most nominated drama series in Emmys history (behind Law & Order, which has 11). The only question is whether it can win.
It’s no secret that the series has, due to a combination of factors, faded in buzz in its later years. The Critics Choice Awards didn’t offer it a single nomination for its final season, and over time, perennial nominees John Slattery and Elisabeth Moss have been dropped off from the Emmys roster. But no doubt, AMC will do the work to get this one in a final time, and will push for a win in a wide-open field. Jon Hamm will certainly receive a final Best Actor nomination, which will tie him with Raymond Burr, Peter Falk and Dennis Franz for the all-time record. That’s no small feat. Christina Hendricks has had solid material this season and should be able to sneak into Best Supporting Actress, a category in which she’s been recognized for five years running. But the category is a lot thicker, with the genre switch of Orange Is the New Black and premiere of Bloodline introducing a lot of new contenders. The big question mark is Ms. Moss, who was left off last season after an impressive run of nominations going back to 2009. Will she earn a farewell salute in Best Actress? While far more likely than either John Slattery or January Jones getting back in the supporting races, Best Actress is more competitive than ever, and with Moss getting passed over last year, she’s definitely got an uphill climb ahead of her.
GAME OF THRONES: A series nomination is assured for HBO’s mammoth blockbuster, especially with the only competition from the network -- True Detective -- out of the way. There’s a legitimate argument to be made for its winning potential, as while House of Cards lost acclaim and Mad Men fanfare, GoT has the best combination of both. Still, as a fantasy drama that’s more spectacle than artistry, it’s not the typical Emmy choice.
As for acting recognition, Peter Dinklage has been such a staple in Best Supporting Actor that, at this point, a nomination seems like a safe bet. After a single nomination for Best Supporting Actress, Emilia Clarke was dropped last year in favor of Lena Headey, a better actress who gets more screentime anyway. This year, I was prepared to write the latter off since she didn't have a boatload of material to work with, and the category is awfully competitive (see Mad Men). But then came her astonishing scene in "Mother Mercy," the kind that's more than enough to vault her into contention, and perhaps even to a win.
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK: After breaking out with a very-impressive 12 nominations in the comedy categories last year, the TV Academy has ruled that Orange must compete as a drama from here-on out. With an even better-reviewed and more-popular second season to compete, that shouldn’t be a huge problem for Jenji Kohan’s phenomenon. With the might of Netflix behind it, it should very easily figure into Outstanding Drama Series.
A better question: Will Taylor Schilling be able to score a Best Actress nomination in the drama equivalent? The category is stuffed with “maybes,” and she fits in squarely among them. She didn’t have a ton of material on the show this year, but the season premiere “Thirsty Bird” is so Piper-centric that if she gets in, she’ll be competitive for the win. She’s also the face of Orange, and that never hurts. If voters embrace it to the extent that they did last year -- and I think they will -- then Schilling has an excellent shot, especially since so many “maybe” contenders are on shows not likely to be embraced much otherwise.
Last year, Kate Mulgrew represented Orange in the supporting field, but I have a feeling that, in the crossover to drama, we’re due for a shake-up. First of all, Guest Acting champ Uzo Aduba is being bumped up to the category, and she has to be the show’s best chance there. She’s won SAG for Best Actress, not to mention an Emmy and a Critics’ Choice Award. She is the show’s breakout and we know she’s got industry support to boot. I’m also really pulling for Lorraine Toussaint, who I think gets helped out immeasurably in the switch to drama. (It’s not an especially funny performance.) She generated a lot of attention as the seasonal “villain” -- a favorite for Emmy voters -- and was just superb all season. She was the show’s only acting nominee this year at Critics’ Choice (where she won), which indicates at least that there’s some passion for this to happen.
HOUSE OF CARDS: Beau Willimon’s political drama has never broken out at the Emmys like some may have expected. It’s lone major win is a directing prize for David Fincher -- which, come on, isn’t exactly a vote for the show. It’s always done well in nominations, though, and remains Netflix’s most prized possession. Its third season lost a lot of favor with critics, but industry and public support should easily propel it to a third consecutive Outstanding Drama Series nomination. Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright will undoubtedly return to the lead acting categories, even if they still likely won’t have the material to eke out a win. (Wright might if she submits the right episode, which did not happen last year.) More interestingly, the most open field (aside from actual series) in the drama categories this year is Best Supporting Actor, and Michael Kelly got some juicy material. Still, his stuff is often considered to be the show’s weakest aspect, and it’s hard to imagine the show picking up nominations at this point. In any case, he’s a contender.
DOWNTON ABBEY: PBS is getting lucky this time around. Despite virtual abandonment from critics and diminished popularity, Downton Abbey should still be able to sneak through on the skin of its teeth courtesy of a very open field. With Breaking Bad and True Detective gone and an extra slot added to Outstanding Drama Series, the Emmys would have to nominate a minimum of three new shows to take Downton out. That’s a tad radical for the oft-conservative TV Academy.
Downton Abbey still has plenty of industry support, anyway -- it just won Best Ensemble at SAG. Plus, Maggie Smith will certainly return to Best Supporting Actress yet again, while even Jim Carter seems like a reasonably safe bet for a Best Supporting Actor return since the category is relatively thin on new contenders. Hopefully, at least, Michelle Dockery will finally be ousted from Best Actress after years of doing unremarkable work in an irrefutably supporting role. The category is likely just too competitive for her to snag the votes once more. With all the new contenders fighting in Best Actor, however, 2-time nominee Hugh Bonneville stands a shot as a surprise returnee after years of getting passed over. He’s a recognizable name on a ballot filled with representatives of new shows.
Finally, one of the show’s better actors, Joanne Froggatt, is fresh off of a Golden Globe win and second Emmy nomination for her standout supporting role. But she’s right on the line, in terms of whether she’ll make it back in or not. There are a lot of hot new contenders she’ll have to get placed ahead of, which will be especially difficult given Downton’s age.
It’s no secret that the series has, due to a combination of factors, faded in buzz in its later years. The Critics Choice Awards didn’t offer it a single nomination for its final season, and over time, perennial nominees John Slattery and Elisabeth Moss have been dropped off from the Emmys roster. But no doubt, AMC will do the work to get this one in a final time, and will push for a win in a wide-open field. Jon Hamm will certainly receive a final Best Actor nomination, which will tie him with Raymond Burr, Peter Falk and Dennis Franz for the all-time record. That’s no small feat. Christina Hendricks has had solid material this season and should be able to sneak into Best Supporting Actress, a category in which she’s been recognized for five years running. But the category is a lot thicker, with the genre switch of Orange Is the New Black and premiere of Bloodline introducing a lot of new contenders. The big question mark is Ms. Moss, who was left off last season after an impressive run of nominations going back to 2009. Will she earn a farewell salute in Best Actress? While far more likely than either John Slattery or January Jones getting back in the supporting races, Best Actress is more competitive than ever, and with Moss getting passed over last year, she’s definitely got an uphill climb ahead of her.
GAME OF THRONES: A series nomination is assured for HBO’s mammoth blockbuster, especially with the only competition from the network -- True Detective -- out of the way. There’s a legitimate argument to be made for its winning potential, as while House of Cards lost acclaim and Mad Men fanfare, GoT has the best combination of both. Still, as a fantasy drama that’s more spectacle than artistry, it’s not the typical Emmy choice.
As for acting recognition, Peter Dinklage has been such a staple in Best Supporting Actor that, at this point, a nomination seems like a safe bet. After a single nomination for Best Supporting Actress, Emilia Clarke was dropped last year in favor of Lena Headey, a better actress who gets more screentime anyway. This year, I was prepared to write the latter off since she didn't have a boatload of material to work with, and the category is awfully competitive (see Mad Men). But then came her astonishing scene in "Mother Mercy," the kind that's more than enough to vault her into contention, and perhaps even to a win.
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK: After breaking out with a very-impressive 12 nominations in the comedy categories last year, the TV Academy has ruled that Orange must compete as a drama from here-on out. With an even better-reviewed and more-popular second season to compete, that shouldn’t be a huge problem for Jenji Kohan’s phenomenon. With the might of Netflix behind it, it should very easily figure into Outstanding Drama Series.
A better question: Will Taylor Schilling be able to score a Best Actress nomination in the drama equivalent? The category is stuffed with “maybes,” and she fits in squarely among them. She didn’t have a ton of material on the show this year, but the season premiere “Thirsty Bird” is so Piper-centric that if she gets in, she’ll be competitive for the win. She’s also the face of Orange, and that never hurts. If voters embrace it to the extent that they did last year -- and I think they will -- then Schilling has an excellent shot, especially since so many “maybe” contenders are on shows not likely to be embraced much otherwise.
Last year, Kate Mulgrew represented Orange in the supporting field, but I have a feeling that, in the crossover to drama, we’re due for a shake-up. First of all, Guest Acting champ Uzo Aduba is being bumped up to the category, and she has to be the show’s best chance there. She’s won SAG for Best Actress, not to mention an Emmy and a Critics’ Choice Award. She is the show’s breakout and we know she’s got industry support to boot. I’m also really pulling for Lorraine Toussaint, who I think gets helped out immeasurably in the switch to drama. (It’s not an especially funny performance.) She generated a lot of attention as the seasonal “villain” -- a favorite for Emmy voters -- and was just superb all season. She was the show’s only acting nominee this year at Critics’ Choice (where she won), which indicates at least that there’s some passion for this to happen.
HOUSE OF CARDS: Beau Willimon’s political drama has never broken out at the Emmys like some may have expected. It’s lone major win is a directing prize for David Fincher -- which, come on, isn’t exactly a vote for the show. It’s always done well in nominations, though, and remains Netflix’s most prized possession. Its third season lost a lot of favor with critics, but industry and public support should easily propel it to a third consecutive Outstanding Drama Series nomination. Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright will undoubtedly return to the lead acting categories, even if they still likely won’t have the material to eke out a win. (Wright might if she submits the right episode, which did not happen last year.) More interestingly, the most open field (aside from actual series) in the drama categories this year is Best Supporting Actor, and Michael Kelly got some juicy material. Still, his stuff is often considered to be the show’s weakest aspect, and it’s hard to imagine the show picking up nominations at this point. In any case, he’s a contender.
DOWNTON ABBEY: PBS is getting lucky this time around. Despite virtual abandonment from critics and diminished popularity, Downton Abbey should still be able to sneak through on the skin of its teeth courtesy of a very open field. With Breaking Bad and True Detective gone and an extra slot added to Outstanding Drama Series, the Emmys would have to nominate a minimum of three new shows to take Downton out. That’s a tad radical for the oft-conservative TV Academy.
Downton Abbey still has plenty of industry support, anyway -- it just won Best Ensemble at SAG. Plus, Maggie Smith will certainly return to Best Supporting Actress yet again, while even Jim Carter seems like a reasonably safe bet for a Best Supporting Actor return since the category is relatively thin on new contenders. Hopefully, at least, Michelle Dockery will finally be ousted from Best Actress after years of doing unremarkable work in an irrefutably supporting role. The category is likely just too competitive for her to snag the votes once more. With all the new contenders fighting in Best Actor, however, 2-time nominee Hugh Bonneville stands a shot as a surprise returnee after years of getting passed over. He’s a recognizable name on a ballot filled with representatives of new shows.
Finally, one of the show’s better actors, Joanne Froggatt, is fresh off of a Golden Globe win and second Emmy nomination for her standout supporting role. But she’s right on the line, in terms of whether she’ll make it back in or not. There are a lot of hot new contenders she’ll have to get placed ahead of, which will be especially difficult given Downton’s age.
NEW MYSTERIES
EMPIRE: If Empire were three-quarters as popular as it actually is, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. The show is a ridiculously over-the-top soap, one even more out-there and less critically-adored than Scandal (which hasn’t been a big player outside of acting categories). But damn if Empire hasn’t blasted through that barrier. Not only is it TV’s most popular show, but it has critics firmly behind it and the added bonus of being credited with radically changing the diversity of the TV landscape. It’s groundbreaking.
Empire is a phenomenon, but will the Emmys go for it even so? Hard to say, but at this point I’m leaning more towards the “yes” column. A Drama Series nomination seems more than feasible, given the amount of open slots and lack of knockout new contenders. I’d be very surprised if it doesn’t make it through. Taraji P. Henson is the show’s clear standout, and a Best Actress nomination for her seems inevitable. (A win? We’ll see). Best Actor is wide open, which is good news for Terrence Howard since he gives a subtler, less-showy performance. But he’s got an excellent shot, and if Empire is embraced to the degree that I think it will be, he’ll almost certainly get swept up in it.
BETTER CALL SAUL: Now this one’s a mystery. Despite great reviews and powerful ratings, Better Call Saul never quite escaped the ghost of Breaking Bad, at least in the public eye. The show disappointed with Critics’ Choice, failing to crack the Drama Series lineup, and discussion around the show in general has been quiet.
First, what the show will likely get: Bob Odenkirk is stellar in the leading role -- maybe even revelatory -- and he’ll be one of the more reliable names among the swath of new Best Actor contenders to consider. He’s looking good. Any voter that watched will be compelled to vote for Jonathan Banks in Best Supporting Actor -- he’s got an absolutely killer episode, and he’s also returning to a role that they’ve nominated before. Again, Best Supporting Actor is weak enough where he should figure in. As for Drama Series? On paper, it’s a perfect contender. But the spin-off label doesn’t help, nor does its patient narrative progression and milquetoast tonal stylings. Still, in this climate, I think its strong ratings and reviews, as well as that vital power of recognizability, can push it through.
BLOODLINE: First off, Orange Is the New Black’s move to drama definitely didn’t help Bloodline, which is now Netflix’s third-in-line contender. It also got off to a slow start, with reviews initially a little cold and viewer response a little quieter. Its steady progression, now a bigger hit with critics and gradual attracting of audiences, is clear. But is it enough?
The biggest thing Bloodline has going for it among new contenders is that it feels like an Emmy show. It’s got a cast of well-known actors doing great work, not to mention stunning technical merit and a season that’s tightly-structured in the vein of Damages, an awards favorite. Kyle Chandler is a former Best Actor winner, and he re-invents his image with this show. Not only is he a near-lock for a nomination, but he might just win the damn thing. Sissy Spacek doesn’t get a ton of material until the season’s last few episodes, but that hasn’t stopped big-name actresses like Maggie Smith from figuring in. (Still, the category is stacked enough where she could get overlooked, especially since Linda Cardellini has a meatier part and kills it.) And Ben Mendelsohn has generated such sustained, immense acclaim that he should be able to snag enough votes for a Best Supporting Actor nomination. The basis as to whether or not it’s a Drama Series contender is really dependent on how many voters have watched the thing. Netflix is pushing it, but at the end of the day, it might be too far in the background to stride on through.
THE AFFAIR: The Affair’s name has definitely been floated around, but the only way this show figures into Drama Series is if it happens to be a favorite among the TV Academy. It’s relatively unlikely. With thin ratings and diminished acclaim, Showtime itself has better contenders in Homeland and even Masters of Sex.
The Affair won the Golden Globe last year, which is mainly why it’s still a part of the conversation. But after the Critics’ Choice completely snubbed it, and since it aired so long ago, it’s hard to imagine it making any kind of impact. Ruth Wilson is tremendous in the leading role, and she might be able to score a Best Actress nomination like Lizzy Caplan did for Masters last year. Dominic West, a perennial Emmy snub (For The Hour and Burton & Taylor), also does great work here, and stands a chance in the wide-open Best Actor race. But the show itself is less-respected (and less-seen) than several new contenders on this list alone, and will likely not do much beyond a few acting nominations (if that).
Empire is a phenomenon, but will the Emmys go for it even so? Hard to say, but at this point I’m leaning more towards the “yes” column. A Drama Series nomination seems more than feasible, given the amount of open slots and lack of knockout new contenders. I’d be very surprised if it doesn’t make it through. Taraji P. Henson is the show’s clear standout, and a Best Actress nomination for her seems inevitable. (A win? We’ll see). Best Actor is wide open, which is good news for Terrence Howard since he gives a subtler, less-showy performance. But he’s got an excellent shot, and if Empire is embraced to the degree that I think it will be, he’ll almost certainly get swept up in it.
BETTER CALL SAUL: Now this one’s a mystery. Despite great reviews and powerful ratings, Better Call Saul never quite escaped the ghost of Breaking Bad, at least in the public eye. The show disappointed with Critics’ Choice, failing to crack the Drama Series lineup, and discussion around the show in general has been quiet.
First, what the show will likely get: Bob Odenkirk is stellar in the leading role -- maybe even revelatory -- and he’ll be one of the more reliable names among the swath of new Best Actor contenders to consider. He’s looking good. Any voter that watched will be compelled to vote for Jonathan Banks in Best Supporting Actor -- he’s got an absolutely killer episode, and he’s also returning to a role that they’ve nominated before. Again, Best Supporting Actor is weak enough where he should figure in. As for Drama Series? On paper, it’s a perfect contender. But the spin-off label doesn’t help, nor does its patient narrative progression and milquetoast tonal stylings. Still, in this climate, I think its strong ratings and reviews, as well as that vital power of recognizability, can push it through.
BLOODLINE: First off, Orange Is the New Black’s move to drama definitely didn’t help Bloodline, which is now Netflix’s third-in-line contender. It also got off to a slow start, with reviews initially a little cold and viewer response a little quieter. Its steady progression, now a bigger hit with critics and gradual attracting of audiences, is clear. But is it enough?
The biggest thing Bloodline has going for it among new contenders is that it feels like an Emmy show. It’s got a cast of well-known actors doing great work, not to mention stunning technical merit and a season that’s tightly-structured in the vein of Damages, an awards favorite. Kyle Chandler is a former Best Actor winner, and he re-invents his image with this show. Not only is he a near-lock for a nomination, but he might just win the damn thing. Sissy Spacek doesn’t get a ton of material until the season’s last few episodes, but that hasn’t stopped big-name actresses like Maggie Smith from figuring in. (Still, the category is stacked enough where she could get overlooked, especially since Linda Cardellini has a meatier part and kills it.) And Ben Mendelsohn has generated such sustained, immense acclaim that he should be able to snag enough votes for a Best Supporting Actor nomination. The basis as to whether or not it’s a Drama Series contender is really dependent on how many voters have watched the thing. Netflix is pushing it, but at the end of the day, it might be too far in the background to stride on through.
THE AFFAIR: The Affair’s name has definitely been floated around, but the only way this show figures into Drama Series is if it happens to be a favorite among the TV Academy. It’s relatively unlikely. With thin ratings and diminished acclaim, Showtime itself has better contenders in Homeland and even Masters of Sex.
The Affair won the Golden Globe last year, which is mainly why it’s still a part of the conversation. But after the Critics’ Choice completely snubbed it, and since it aired so long ago, it’s hard to imagine it making any kind of impact. Ruth Wilson is tremendous in the leading role, and she might be able to score a Best Actress nomination like Lizzy Caplan did for Masters last year. Dominic West, a perennial Emmy snub (For The Hour and Burton & Taylor), also does great work here, and stands a chance in the wide-open Best Actor race. But the show itself is less-respected (and less-seen) than several new contenders on this list alone, and will likely not do much beyond a few acting nominations (if that).
LOOKING FOR A WAY IN
HOMELAND: Showtime is great at campaigning. And after a disastrous third season, Homeland came back with critics enough to make the top 7 at Critics’ Choice. If the network is wise, they’ll push this hardest, over The Affair.
Of course, it is very difficult for shows that have been dropped from the big category to make it back in again. Even The Good Wife, with a fifth season of universal acclaim and mass attention, couldn’t find its way back in the Academy's good graces. But there are more openings this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Homeland’s name was announced as a Drama Series nominee. At the very least, Claire Danes should comfortably return to Best Actress for a fourth time, while in a turbulent year for Best Supporting Actor, Mandy Patinkin is a reliable choice.
THE AMERICANS: Maybe this is just wishful thinking. After two years of universally-acclaimed, critics’ prize-winning seasons, The Americans has only earned a pair of guest acting nominations for Margo Martindale from the Television Academy.
But in this third season, the consensus became overwhelming: this is the best drama on television. With all of the openings in Best Drama Series and Actor (Matthew Rhys) in particular, there’s a chance that this show could finally generate the necessary passion to make a play. To qualify, its ratings are still low and it hasn’t gotten any kind of outside support in tech categories to indicate Emmy voters even know this show exists. But dear God, it deserves it, and damned if it isn’t more obvious than ever with such a big gap of unfilled slots. One can hope.
THE GOOD WIFE: Maybe Emmy voters are on satellite delay? After a sensational fifth season that voters largely overlooked, the show has just wrapped a severely misguided sixth season that nevertheless is still a Critics’ Choice Drama Series nominee. Julianna Margulies, fresh off of her second Best Actress win, has the stamina for at least another nomination, while Christine Baranski is one of Best Supporting Actress’ most reliable constants right now. (With her sixth category nomination very likely forthcoming, she’ll tie Barbara Basson and Stockard Channing for fourth all-time in nominations.) It most likely doesn’t have enough strength to get back in the big category, but perhaps if voters look to fill slots with old favorites, it stands a (slim) chance.
Of course, it is very difficult for shows that have been dropped from the big category to make it back in again. Even The Good Wife, with a fifth season of universal acclaim and mass attention, couldn’t find its way back in the Academy's good graces. But there are more openings this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Homeland’s name was announced as a Drama Series nominee. At the very least, Claire Danes should comfortably return to Best Actress for a fourth time, while in a turbulent year for Best Supporting Actor, Mandy Patinkin is a reliable choice.
THE AMERICANS: Maybe this is just wishful thinking. After two years of universally-acclaimed, critics’ prize-winning seasons, The Americans has only earned a pair of guest acting nominations for Margo Martindale from the Television Academy.
But in this third season, the consensus became overwhelming: this is the best drama on television. With all of the openings in Best Drama Series and Actor (Matthew Rhys) in particular, there’s a chance that this show could finally generate the necessary passion to make a play. To qualify, its ratings are still low and it hasn’t gotten any kind of outside support in tech categories to indicate Emmy voters even know this show exists. But dear God, it deserves it, and damned if it isn’t more obvious than ever with such a big gap of unfilled slots. One can hope.
THE GOOD WIFE: Maybe Emmy voters are on satellite delay? After a sensational fifth season that voters largely overlooked, the show has just wrapped a severely misguided sixth season that nevertheless is still a Critics’ Choice Drama Series nominee. Julianna Margulies, fresh off of her second Best Actress win, has the stamina for at least another nomination, while Christine Baranski is one of Best Supporting Actress’ most reliable constants right now. (With her sixth category nomination very likely forthcoming, she’ll tie Barbara Basson and Stockard Channing for fourth all-time in nominations.) It most likely doesn’t have enough strength to get back in the big category, but perhaps if voters look to fill slots with old favorites, it stands a (slim) chance.
THE REST OF THE CONTENDERS
BEST ACTOR: Clive Owen is the kind of prestige, turn-to-TV name that Emmy voters salivate over, and his work in The Knick earned him great reviews. But I worry about visibility. A few years ago, Kelsey Grammer had a similar against-type, baity role in Boss, and was passed over despite a Globe win. Jeff Daniels, meanwhile, is a past winner and 2-time nominee. But The Newsroom ended way back in the fall with (still) bad reviews, low ratings and a reduced episode order. Will voters really care enough to check him off again?
BEST ACTRESS: Viola Davis is an absolute lock for How to Get Away with Murder, to the point where she’s the clear frontrunner to win at this point. (Her SAG win proves substantial industry support.) Kerry Washington, meanwhile, has been nominated two years in a row, but like we’ve seen with Elisabeth Moss, Vera Farmiga and others, the influx of new contenders will probably squeeze her out -- especially since Scandal is not the phenomenon it once was. Lizzy Caplan, also nominated last year, has a slightly better shot, especially since her material this year was even stronger.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: The category is most definitely thin enough where Jon Voight can return for his hammy Ray Donovan performance, but that show really isn’t getting anything in the realm of buzz. I could imagine him being passed over, for instance, by Walton Goggins. A past nominee who’s long been a beloved actor on that show, he’s Justified’s best chance for a farewell nomination. Don’t be shocked. I’d also argue that Christopher Eccleston stands a miniscule chance, if only because his Leftovers performance really struck critics passionately.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Not much else to report here.
BEST ACTRESS: Viola Davis is an absolute lock for How to Get Away with Murder, to the point where she’s the clear frontrunner to win at this point. (Her SAG win proves substantial industry support.) Kerry Washington, meanwhile, has been nominated two years in a row, but like we’ve seen with Elisabeth Moss, Vera Farmiga and others, the influx of new contenders will probably squeeze her out -- especially since Scandal is not the phenomenon it once was. Lizzy Caplan, also nominated last year, has a slightly better shot, especially since her material this year was even stronger.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: The category is most definitely thin enough where Jon Voight can return for his hammy Ray Donovan performance, but that show really isn’t getting anything in the realm of buzz. I could imagine him being passed over, for instance, by Walton Goggins. A past nominee who’s long been a beloved actor on that show, he’s Justified’s best chance for a farewell nomination. Don’t be shocked. I’d also argue that Christopher Eccleston stands a miniscule chance, if only because his Leftovers performance really struck critics passionately.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Not much else to report here.
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