NOTE: This is the FULL ANALYSIS of current predictions for the 2015 Emmy Award comedy categories. This will be updated frequently. Click HERE for my master list of rankings, based on the analysis you see below, or click HERE to see analysis of drama categories.
Update: 07/14 (final)
THE LAY OF THE LAND
All of last year’s nominees for Outstanding Comedy Series -- with the exception of Orange Is the New Black, which is making the move to drama -- are eligible again in 2015. With the TV Academy ruling on an extra slot to be added to the category, that means Louie, The Big Bang Theory, Modern Family, Silicon Valley and Veep will work to hold their spots with at least two new nominees set to come into the mix.
Streaming giants Amazon and Netflix have the most likely new contenders. In the former’s case, it’s the breakout family tragicomedy Transparent; in the latter’s, the bouncy Tina Fey sitcom Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Other new shows set to compete include Netflix’s star-studded Grace and Frankie, ABC’s critically-acclaimed Black-ish and FX’s showbiz satire The Comedians.
Five of six Best Actor nominees from 2014, with Ricky Gervais of Derek now ineligible, are back in the fold, but the depth of new contenders is limited. Billy Crystal of The Comedians, Jeffrey Tambor of Transparent and Will Forte of The Last Man on Earth are among those with a chance to sneak in.
Best Actress is far more competitive, which at least in comedy has been the case over the last few years. All six 2015 nominees return along with a lengthy list of top new contenders. Among them: Lily Tomlin & Jane Fonda in Grace and Frankie, Lisa Kudrow in The Comeback, Gina Rodriguez in Jane the Virgin and Ellie Kemper in Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.
Below is analysis of where each of the major Series contenders, along with their contending actors (bolded), stand. Whichever major actors don’t get discussed in that analysis are briefly profiled at the end of this post.
RETURNING NOMINEES
VEEP: You can bet on a fourth consecutive nomination for HBO’s wicked political satire. Veep has earned better reviews than ever, with its place in the cultural canon quite firm and its viewership still hitting new highs.
Certainly, HBO has to be angling for a win. It remains the only comedy that could take down Modern Family, which, seriously -- will voters give it a sixth win? Under that logic, Veep can pull it off, but I said the same thing last year. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is obviously back in Best Actress, but whether she can win a fourth trophy over Netflix newbies like Ellie Kemper and Lily Tomlin remains to be seen. I wouldn’t worry about Tony Hale or Anna Chlumsky, either. Both seem like reliable supporting choices at this point. HBO is submitting Hugh Laurie in supporting as well, however, which could really shake things up. His role isn't especially showy like Hale's but he has the name recognition and prominence in character to sneak in.
MODERN FAMILY: After winning Outstanding Comedy Series a record five times in a row, to not be nominated for its sixth season would be… strange. Then again, it’d be stranger if the family sitcom, which critics don’t care about anymore and which is declining in the ratings, would become the all-time record-holder for category wins. That wouldn’t sit right.
It’s aged enough where any actor could realistically be dropped, as witnessed last year with Sofia Vergara and Eric Stonestreet. The supporting categories are congested enough where neither should be able to make a comeback. But multi-winners Ty Burrell and Julie Bowen are theoretically safe, unless voters decide to get political and boycott the show altogether. (One can hope.) Jesse Tyler Ferguson has been nominated since the second season, but he’s never won and thus seems like the next casualty. Best Supporting Actor is all over the place, however, so he’s right on the fringe.
THE BIG BANG THEORY: How much juice does CBS’ formulaic “nerd”-com have left? It remains a ratings juggernaut and its network’s only real contender, which in this field should definitely be enough.
Best Comedy Series is really weak right now, and the contenders just aren’t there to throw out Big Bang. Again, it’s old enough where stranger things could happen. But obviously, Jim Parsons isn’t going anywhere in Best Actor after winning (yet) again last year, while with the Orange Is the New Black ladies out of the way, Mayim Bialik should comfortably fit into Best Supporting Actress once more.
SILICON VALLEY: With network-best ratings and critical acclaim that’s only improved, Silicon Valley seems like a good bet to return. After a stunner victory at the Critics' Choice Awards, it might even have enough in the tank to compete for the win.
At the very least, HBO has enough clout to get this back in. There’s nothing beyond Veep that’s on the network’s radar, and it remains a solid performer with audiences and critics alike. (Plus, it scored writing and directing nominations last year, indicating a high level of industry respect.) It’s rare for Comedy Series nominees to lack a single acting nominee in one year, let alone two. So does Thomas Middleditch have a shot in Best Actor? I hope so. It’s a category filled with second-rate performances that deserves this kind of adrenaline shot. That said, he wasn’t recognized last year in a more open field. T.J. Miller, fresh off of a Critics' Choice Award win, might have the better shot in Supporting Actor. He's behind the kind of iconic character that actors like Rainn Wilson and Tony Hale have taken to nominations in their respective series' second seasons. That said, Miller's a relative unknown in a field of veterans.
LOUIE: Probably the most vulnerable of the returning nominees, Louie’s episode order is slashed from 13 to 8 this go-round and buzz is a little down. And let’s not forget that the TV Academy neglected to include Louie in the big category until its third season. With the Critics’ Choice already passing it by, to say that it could be looked over is reasonable, but perhaps also a little presumptuous in a climate with precious few new contenders. Louis C.K. should get into Best Actor again no problem -- at this point, he’s getting rubber-stamped -- and with support from writing and directing branches, the idea of it being surpassed by comedies like The Comedians is a little difficult to swallow.
Certainly, HBO has to be angling for a win. It remains the only comedy that could take down Modern Family, which, seriously -- will voters give it a sixth win? Under that logic, Veep can pull it off, but I said the same thing last year. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is obviously back in Best Actress, but whether she can win a fourth trophy over Netflix newbies like Ellie Kemper and Lily Tomlin remains to be seen. I wouldn’t worry about Tony Hale or Anna Chlumsky, either. Both seem like reliable supporting choices at this point. HBO is submitting Hugh Laurie in supporting as well, however, which could really shake things up. His role isn't especially showy like Hale's but he has the name recognition and prominence in character to sneak in.
MODERN FAMILY: After winning Outstanding Comedy Series a record five times in a row, to not be nominated for its sixth season would be… strange. Then again, it’d be stranger if the family sitcom, which critics don’t care about anymore and which is declining in the ratings, would become the all-time record-holder for category wins. That wouldn’t sit right.
It’s aged enough where any actor could realistically be dropped, as witnessed last year with Sofia Vergara and Eric Stonestreet. The supporting categories are congested enough where neither should be able to make a comeback. But multi-winners Ty Burrell and Julie Bowen are theoretically safe, unless voters decide to get political and boycott the show altogether. (One can hope.) Jesse Tyler Ferguson has been nominated since the second season, but he’s never won and thus seems like the next casualty. Best Supporting Actor is all over the place, however, so he’s right on the fringe.
THE BIG BANG THEORY: How much juice does CBS’ formulaic “nerd”-com have left? It remains a ratings juggernaut and its network’s only real contender, which in this field should definitely be enough.
Best Comedy Series is really weak right now, and the contenders just aren’t there to throw out Big Bang. Again, it’s old enough where stranger things could happen. But obviously, Jim Parsons isn’t going anywhere in Best Actor after winning (yet) again last year, while with the Orange Is the New Black ladies out of the way, Mayim Bialik should comfortably fit into Best Supporting Actress once more.
SILICON VALLEY: With network-best ratings and critical acclaim that’s only improved, Silicon Valley seems like a good bet to return. After a stunner victory at the Critics' Choice Awards, it might even have enough in the tank to compete for the win.
At the very least, HBO has enough clout to get this back in. There’s nothing beyond Veep that’s on the network’s radar, and it remains a solid performer with audiences and critics alike. (Plus, it scored writing and directing nominations last year, indicating a high level of industry respect.) It’s rare for Comedy Series nominees to lack a single acting nominee in one year, let alone two. So does Thomas Middleditch have a shot in Best Actor? I hope so. It’s a category filled with second-rate performances that deserves this kind of adrenaline shot. That said, he wasn’t recognized last year in a more open field. T.J. Miller, fresh off of a Critics' Choice Award win, might have the better shot in Supporting Actor. He's behind the kind of iconic character that actors like Rainn Wilson and Tony Hale have taken to nominations in their respective series' second seasons. That said, Miller's a relative unknown in a field of veterans.
LOUIE: Probably the most vulnerable of the returning nominees, Louie’s episode order is slashed from 13 to 8 this go-round and buzz is a little down. And let’s not forget that the TV Academy neglected to include Louie in the big category until its third season. With the Critics’ Choice already passing it by, to say that it could be looked over is reasonable, but perhaps also a little presumptuous in a climate with precious few new contenders. Louis C.K. should get into Best Actor again no problem -- at this point, he’s getting rubber-stamped -- and with support from writing and directing branches, the idea of it being surpassed by comedies like The Comedians is a little difficult to swallow.
HOT NEW CONTENDERS
TRANSPARENT: I’m not jumping the gun, am I? TV’s best-reviewed show of 2014 -- new or old, comedy or drama -- has generated such sustained attention and adoration that a snub here would look simply ghastly on the part of Emmy voters. I don’t think we need to worry about it too much, though. Its Golden Globe win put a face to the buzz, and a DGA win for Jill Soloway proved that industry support is real. It’s also the face of a movement -- that never hurts.
Jeffrey Tambor is certain to add some life into Best Actor, fresh off his Globe win and showing off stunning new depths. It may diminish the power and nuance of his performance to say that it’s awards-bait, but, well… it is. It’s subtle, so pushing through the tape round may be difficult, but I’m confident he can eke out a win. The supporting cast is uniformly terrific, but most of the actors are more dramatically engaging than openly funny. Gaby Hoffman is a possible Supporting Actress nominee, but much more likely to show up in that category is the legendary Judith Light, who gives a riotous turn as the family matriarch.
UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT: With Orange is the New Black out of the way, Netflix’s brazenly odd new sitcom has the full might of the streaming service behind it. The series earned great reviews and preliminary data indicates the show fared well-enough in the ratings, benefits which outweigh the youth-skewing nature of its material. It also comes from the Tina Fey/Robert Carlock label, an Emmy favorite. With the slate of new contenders as thin as it is, Kimmy Schmidt stands out rather obviously and should theoretically occupy that last slot.
Ellie Kemper is a definitive breakout in the lead role, and I suspect the TV Academy will reward her accordingly. But the fate of the show’s supporting players is far less certain. In Supporting Actress, you could take your pick between Jane Krakowski and Carol Kane, both of whom are great but will struggle to crack a rather-definite field. (It might come down to what show, between Transparent and Kimmy Schmidt, is better-received.) And on the male side, Tituss Burgess is beyond deserving, but again: it’ll depend on how many Modern Family players he’s able to take down. (And he’s got those Grace and Frankie men to worry about, too.) Still, I’m thinking the show gets a warm embrace, and as the series’ male lead, he’ll get his due.
THE COMEDIANS: Never underestimate Hollywood’s love of itself. Episodes is poorly-reviewed with low ratings and virtually no attention paid, and yet, it regularly competes in acting and writing categories. Despite having been canceled a full year earlier due to anemic ratings and despite earning mixed reviews itself, HBO’s The Comeback still netted several major nominations for its first season all those years ago.
The Comedians was not very well-reviewed, and isn’t a big hit either. Yet with Billy Crystal in the lead, very likely to join Louis C.K. and Matt LeBlanc as a nominated actor playing himself, it’ll be on voters’ radar. It also has producers like Larry Charles on board, with the likes of Mel Brooks guest-starring. You can bet FX will push it, and you can bet its insider, mockumentary-style comedy will be catnip to certain voters. It’s a weak-enough field where it could easily grab the final slot.
GRACE AND FRANKIE: While similarly earning mixed-reviews, there’s so much TV star power in Grace and Frankie that a few check-off votes are certainly inevitable. Netflix is the right kind of company to push this show for awards attention, even if it isn’t very good or -- worse -- funny. But regardless of its series chances, I think Lily Tomlin’s boisterous performance is easily enough to crack Best Actress, especially since she sits on the TV Academy’s Board of Governors. If voters like the show, Jane Fonda’s more tightly-knit turn has a good shot too. And between Martin Sheen and Sam Waterson for recognition in Supporting Actor, I’m unsure. The field is malleable and open, so either could figure in, with Waterston’s more flamboyant performance a tad more likely.
Jeffrey Tambor is certain to add some life into Best Actor, fresh off his Globe win and showing off stunning new depths. It may diminish the power and nuance of his performance to say that it’s awards-bait, but, well… it is. It’s subtle, so pushing through the tape round may be difficult, but I’m confident he can eke out a win. The supporting cast is uniformly terrific, but most of the actors are more dramatically engaging than openly funny. Gaby Hoffman is a possible Supporting Actress nominee, but much more likely to show up in that category is the legendary Judith Light, who gives a riotous turn as the family matriarch.
UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT: With Orange is the New Black out of the way, Netflix’s brazenly odd new sitcom has the full might of the streaming service behind it. The series earned great reviews and preliminary data indicates the show fared well-enough in the ratings, benefits which outweigh the youth-skewing nature of its material. It also comes from the Tina Fey/Robert Carlock label, an Emmy favorite. With the slate of new contenders as thin as it is, Kimmy Schmidt stands out rather obviously and should theoretically occupy that last slot.
Ellie Kemper is a definitive breakout in the lead role, and I suspect the TV Academy will reward her accordingly. But the fate of the show’s supporting players is far less certain. In Supporting Actress, you could take your pick between Jane Krakowski and Carol Kane, both of whom are great but will struggle to crack a rather-definite field. (It might come down to what show, between Transparent and Kimmy Schmidt, is better-received.) And on the male side, Tituss Burgess is beyond deserving, but again: it’ll depend on how many Modern Family players he’s able to take down. (And he’s got those Grace and Frankie men to worry about, too.) Still, I’m thinking the show gets a warm embrace, and as the series’ male lead, he’ll get his due.
THE COMEDIANS: Never underestimate Hollywood’s love of itself. Episodes is poorly-reviewed with low ratings and virtually no attention paid, and yet, it regularly competes in acting and writing categories. Despite having been canceled a full year earlier due to anemic ratings and despite earning mixed reviews itself, HBO’s The Comeback still netted several major nominations for its first season all those years ago.
The Comedians was not very well-reviewed, and isn’t a big hit either. Yet with Billy Crystal in the lead, very likely to join Louis C.K. and Matt LeBlanc as a nominated actor playing himself, it’ll be on voters’ radar. It also has producers like Larry Charles on board, with the likes of Mel Brooks guest-starring. You can bet FX will push it, and you can bet its insider, mockumentary-style comedy will be catnip to certain voters. It’s a weak-enough field where it could easily grab the final slot.
GRACE AND FRANKIE: While similarly earning mixed-reviews, there’s so much TV star power in Grace and Frankie that a few check-off votes are certainly inevitable. Netflix is the right kind of company to push this show for awards attention, even if it isn’t very good or -- worse -- funny. But regardless of its series chances, I think Lily Tomlin’s boisterous performance is easily enough to crack Best Actress, especially since she sits on the TV Academy’s Board of Governors. If voters like the show, Jane Fonda’s more tightly-knit turn has a good shot too. And between Martin Sheen and Sam Waterson for recognition in Supporting Actor, I’m unsure. The field is malleable and open, so either could figure in, with Waterston’s more flamboyant performance a tad more likely.
LONGSHOTS
BLACK-ISH: Acting nominations are out of the question, and little-to-no recognition from Critics’ Choice doesn’t help matters. But it’s the breakout network sitcom of the season, with acclaim holding up well and ratings consistently strong. Maybe voters really liked it?
GIRLS: The dramatic influx of new blood in Best Actress is certainly drowning out three-time nominee Lena Dunham, while Adam Driver, who rather surprisingly snuck back in last year, probably won’t three-peat for Best Supporting Actor. As for its series chances, well… don't hold your breath.
PARKS AND RECREATION: A series nominee only way back in its third season, there’s no doubt that critics think Parks and Recreation got a raw deal from the Emmys. It concluded its last season a while ago, and it was completely snubbed by Critics’ Choice, so a series nod would be a minor miracle. But at the very least, Amy Poehler should be able to snag one last Best Actress nomination, and probably lose it yet again.
GIRLS: The dramatic influx of new blood in Best Actress is certainly drowning out three-time nominee Lena Dunham, while Adam Driver, who rather surprisingly snuck back in last year, probably won’t three-peat for Best Supporting Actor. As for its series chances, well… don't hold your breath.
PARKS AND RECREATION: A series nominee only way back in its third season, there’s no doubt that critics think Parks and Recreation got a raw deal from the Emmys. It concluded its last season a while ago, and it was completely snubbed by Critics’ Choice, so a series nod would be a minor miracle. But at the very least, Amy Poehler should be able to snag one last Best Actress nomination, and probably lose it yet again.
THE REST OF THE CONTENDERS
BEST ACTOR: After winning SAG for Shameless, it’s clear that William H. Macy has strong industry support for this role. Shameless’ move to comedy was especially good for him. Matt LeBlanc, to my mind, might have one last nomination in him for Episodes since the new contenders just don’t match-up beyond Tambor and Crystal, but he's still vulnerable. Along those lines, I think Don Cheadle gets pushed out -- House of Lies is just dead right now, and with the new competition I can’t imagine his name being checked off again. If voters really responded to Last Man on Earth, I suppose Will Forte has an outside shot. And despite being snubbed last year, Andy Samberg is a (very) dark horse for a nomination -- he’s hosting the ceremony, which is never a bad omen.
BEST ACTRESS: Along with Poehler, Edie Falco should figure in a last time for the final season of Nurse Jackie -- she’s too respected not to. Melissa McCarthy snuck back in last year, but that was only because of the dearth of new contenders. That’s not the case this time, and I suspect she’ll be dropped once more. Globe champ Gina Rodriguez has only a slim chance for Jane the Virgin, mainly because CW shows are nowhere near Emmy voters’ radar. Lisa Kudrow would have benefitted from a later release date for The Comeback, but she’s absolutely still in it. But for that last slot? My money is on Amy Schumer. It’s a risky pick, but she is a cultural phenomenon right now (and, again, a Critics' Choice champ); like with Louis C.K, I suspect respect for her will drive her into contention.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Andre Braugher was the one Brooklyn Nine-Nine nominee last year, and I see no reason he won’t replicate that nod this time around. He’s a beloved actor and the Emmys never cease to reward him. The other returning nominee yet to be mentioned is Fred Armisen, whose Portlandia nod was, I suspect, a one-and-done deal.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: First things first: reigning champ Allison Janney will undoubtedly come back for Mom, and from what I understand she’s got the material to win a second time in a row. I’m also feeling good about Kate McKinnon’s chances for a second nomination. She is the SNL it-girl of the moment, and increased time for her Hillary Clinton impression can’t be hurting matters.
BEST ACTRESS: Along with Poehler, Edie Falco should figure in a last time for the final season of Nurse Jackie -- she’s too respected not to. Melissa McCarthy snuck back in last year, but that was only because of the dearth of new contenders. That’s not the case this time, and I suspect she’ll be dropped once more. Globe champ Gina Rodriguez has only a slim chance for Jane the Virgin, mainly because CW shows are nowhere near Emmy voters’ radar. Lisa Kudrow would have benefitted from a later release date for The Comeback, but she’s absolutely still in it. But for that last slot? My money is on Amy Schumer. It’s a risky pick, but she is a cultural phenomenon right now (and, again, a Critics' Choice champ); like with Louis C.K, I suspect respect for her will drive her into contention.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Andre Braugher was the one Brooklyn Nine-Nine nominee last year, and I see no reason he won’t replicate that nod this time around. He’s a beloved actor and the Emmys never cease to reward him. The other returning nominee yet to be mentioned is Fred Armisen, whose Portlandia nod was, I suspect, a one-and-done deal.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: First things first: reigning champ Allison Janney will undoubtedly come back for Mom, and from what I understand she’s got the material to win a second time in a row. I’m also feeling good about Kate McKinnon’s chances for a second nomination. She is the SNL it-girl of the moment, and increased time for her Hillary Clinton impression can’t be hurting matters.
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