Outstanding Comedy Series
The category underwent a much-needed shakeup last year, with The Big Bang Theory finally booted; worthy streaming entrants Transparent and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt shortlisted among the new class; and veteran HBO stalwart Veep finally dethroning the tired Modern Family for the crown. Expect the trend to continue in 2016. Veep, which has undergone a stunningly successful showrunner transition in year five, is easily the one to beat, with Transparent, Kimmy Schmidt and HBO mate Silicon Valley all well-positioned to return beyond it (as is Modern Family, though its aged status could lead to a surprise omission). But two of last year’s nominees, in Louie and Parks and Recreation, are now ineligible, opening the door for newbies and veterans alike. Best situated has to be Black-ish, the most successful broadcast sitcom out there right now in terms of combined cultural, critical and commercial value; its second season has earned critics’ respect and featured several tremendous issue-centric episodes. From there, it’s all campaign math: Netflix is heavily pushing its critical phenomenon Master of None, which launched a while ago but has kept up well in buzz; NBC has the retro-fitted and certainly deserving Carmichael Show, which might be a bit too under-the-radar; and no doubt The CW is spotting an opening for one of its two underwatched darlings, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Jane the Virgin. Of course, it’s equally plausible that voters revert to their old ways, either backtracking on Big Bang or giving the widely-watched and -nominated Shameless its due.
1 | Veep
2 | Transparent
3 | Silicon Valley
4 | Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
5 | Modern Family
6 | Black-ish
7 | Master of None
8 | The Big Bang Theory
9 | The Carmichael Show
10 | Shameless
11 | Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
12 | Jane the Virgin
13 | Casual
14 | Fresh Off the Boat
Outstanding Lead Actor
This remains a curiously thin field; the passed era of Steve Carell and Alec Baldwin has left quite a bit to be desired. Of course the category’s leader, Jeffrey Tambor, is doing remarkable work and is all but certain to repeat for what’s mostly a dramatic role. Anthony Anderson and William H. Macy – what with his surprising success at the SAG Awards – should be safe to come back, and there are a few other returning nominees with a shot as well, namely Will Forte and Don Cheadle. But the former is on a low-rated series that’s neither shiny nor new anymore, and the latter has earned more nominations than expected – or, frankly, deserved. Thus while we’re not convinced of his show’s chance at a comeback, Jim Parsons, tied for the all-time record in wins, might very well sneak back in on familiarity alone. Voters have neglected to go for Thomas Middleditch despite his sterling work on Silicon Valley; we’re hoping this is his year. And since we’re hedging our bets on Master of None, we see Aziz Ansari occupying that last slot as a respected creator-actor in the vein of Louis C.K. and Jemaine Clement. If voters prefer Carmichael Show, expect Jerrod Carmichael to take his place for the same reason.
1 | Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
2 | Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
3 | William H. Macy, Shameless
4 | Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
5 | Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley
6 | Aziz Ansari, Master of None
7 | Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth
8 | Jerrod Carmichael, The Carmichael Show
9 | Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
10 | Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Outstanding Lead Actress
Competitive as ever, Comedy Actress still comes down to one name: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, having what might be her best season yet on Veep. It’s hard to imagine her losing, even five years into her run on the HBO satire. But is there even one lock beyond her? A full half of last year’s nominees are now ineligible, and neither of the two left are exactly heavyweights. Lily Tomlin, probably popular enough within the Academy to get back in, is on one of Netflix’s lesser shows in Grace and Frankie, and after a rockstar year Amy Schumer (and her show) has dipped dramatically in attention and even acclaim. Equally uncertain is Ellie Kemper, who was surprisingly excluded despite Kimmy Schmidt’s strength with voters but is regardless well-positioned, given the category’s three vacancies. We like the chances of Tracey Ellis Ross, too, given what we’re expecting to be a big Black-ish breakout with the Academy. Voters can get a little creative to round it out: among the contenders are Jane the Virgin anchor Gina Rodriguez, who just missed out last year; Michaela Watkins, an inspired, obscure pick for Hulu’s small gem Casual; and Laurie Metcalf, an Emmy magnet who just capped off career-best work in the quiet Getting On. But the likeliest performance to get recognized is that of Rachel Bloom, whose musical comedy stylings in Crazy Ex-Girlfriend have already netted her a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. Let’s hope Emmy voters follow suit.
1 | Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
2 | Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
3 | Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
4 | Tracey Ellis Ross, Black-ish
5 | Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
6 | Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
7 | Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
8 | Michaela Watkins, Casual
9 | Laurie Metcalf, Getting On
10 | Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly
Outstanding Supporting Actor
With Modern Family staying on the decline and all six of last year’s nominees returning, we’ve got a fairly locked-in race right now: multi-winners Tony Hale and Ty Burrell aren’t going anywhere; awards darling Andre Braugher should be safe despite his show’s unpopularity with voters; and there’s no real reason why newcomers Tituss Burgess and Keegan Michael-Key would be dropped at this stage. The vulnerable one of the six, then, has to be Adam Driver, the last Girls creative standing (against all expectations); odds are that the show will continue to fade from the nominations list, with Driver being the next logical step. The best candidates to replace him include Silicon Valley’s scene-stealer T.J. Miller, Black-ish recurring player Laurence Fishburne and, if the show scores some points with voters, The Carmichael Show’s David Alan Grier. Any number of alternate Veep and Silicon Valley cast members should be considered possible as well.
1 | Tony Hale, Veep
2 | Ty Burrell, Modern Family
3 | Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
4 | Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
5 | Keegan Michael-Key, Key and Peele
6 | T.J. Miller, Silicon Valley
7 | Laurence Fishburne, Black-ish
8 | David Alan Grier, The Carmichael Show
9 | Adam Driver, Girls
10 | Hugh Laurie, Veep
Outstanding Supporting Actress
The field was so tightly contested last year that a series of ties led to eight nominees – all of whom are back in contention this year, despite the ostensible maximum of six slots. And that doesn’t even cover the pair of Emmy-winning actresses who pose a serious threat this time around. Two-time champ Allison Janney and two-time nominee Anna Chlumsky, of the surging Veep, are certain to return; multi-winner Julie Bowen and election-boosted Kate McKinnon are nearly as likely. But beyond those four, your guess is as good as mine. What kind of base of support must Niecy Nash have, if she were able to get in for the totally invisible Getting On last year? Was Gaby Hoffmann's getting in ahead of Transparent co-star Judith Light a fluke last year, or an indication of surprisingly broad support? And just how significant is it that Mayim Bialik is currently holding Big Bang’s only major nomination? There are many unanswered questions this time around, as evidenced above. And with a still-hilarious Jane Krakowski and raucous new player in Loretta Devine shaking up things even further, this one is likely to yield a few surprises.
1 | Anna Chlumsky, Veep
2 | Allison Janney, Mom
3 | Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night LIve
4 | Julie Bowen, Modern Family
5 | Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
6 | Judith Light, Transparent
7 | Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
8 | Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
9 | Niecy Nash, Getting On
10 | Loretta Devine, The Carmichael Show
Outstanding Writing
Head over to our drama predictions for a brief explanation of how the writing and directing categories work, in case you’re unaware or – since these are pretty complicated – in need of a refresher. Put shortly, this all comes down to submission number, and Black-ish and Master of None are the two most notable comedies to submit single episodes, in “Hope” and “Parents,” respectively. We expect them to make the final cut accordingly. Transparent and Veep submitted a few, but given their frontrunner statuses, it’s likely the right amount – the former’s season premiere “Kina Hora” was a superb starting point, and the latter’s “Mother” was its buzzed-about centerpiece. We’re thinking they represent the two series. As for that last slot, Silicon Valley is probably the safe choice – as for whether it’s “Daily Active Users,” our personal favorite, or something else out of the few others submitted, is unclear – but Veep and Transparent could easily double-down, and the emotionally satisfying finale of Kimmy Schmidt – which has one too many episodes on the ballot this year – is in it as well.
1 | “Kina Hora,” Transparent
2 | “Mother,” Veep
3 | “Hope,” Black-ish
4 | “Parents,” Master of None
5 | “Daily Active Users,” Silicon Valley
6 | “Doc,” Veep
7 | “Kimmy Finds Her Mom!,” Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
8 | “Man on the Land,” Transparent
9 | “Founder Friendly,” Silicon Valley
Outstanding Directing
Jill Soloway won this award last year, and her episode on the ballot for 2016 – the bracing “Man on the Land” – is certain to be nominated and the favorite to win; and seeing as it’s viewed as one of half-hour television’s best-looking shows, we’d say that Transparent’s only other submission – Jim Frohna for “The Book of Life” – stands an excellent shot as well. As for Veep, it’s got three episodes in the field, all good but none particularly distinctive; we’d wager on “Doc,” directed by Dave Mandel, whose showrunning effort is sure to be admired by the series’ fans. Silicon Valley is another one of the likely players, and has two submissions, one helmed by each of its showrunners in Alec Berg and Mike Judge. (Judge was repped here last year so a repeat seems more likely.) But where to go from there? Again, Master of None is singularly represented with “Parents,” and as a gorgeously-realized piece it is right in the thick of it. If voters go for a name, Oscar-nominated Jason Reitman is there with the well-received Casual pilot. (And as always, there’s the chance of doubling down on one of the big players, in Veep and Silicon.) But for our biggest gamble of the comedy categories, we’re going to go with Marc Webb. He’s a name, a pilot director, the sole representative of Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and behind one of television’s most audacious, impressive experiments. He’s a terrific, unconventional pick.
1 | “Man on the Land,” Transparent
2 | “Doc,” Veep
3 | “Founder Friendly,” Silicon Valley
4 | “The Book of Life,” Transparent
5 | “Josh Just Happens to Live Here!,” Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
6 | “Parents,” Master of None
7 | “Mother,” Veep
8 | “Daily Active Users,” Silicon Valley
9 | “Pilot,” Casual