BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: The Revenant or The Big Short
Should Win: Spotlight
Should Be Nominated: Carol
Any way you slice it, this is the closest Best Picture race in at least a decade. The Industry is evidently split on this one between three films. To start things off at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, Spotlight beat the movie-star-packed The Big Short, which then won with the Producers’ Guild of America (PGA) over the bigger-budget The Revenant, which then finished strong with key wins from the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and BAFTA.
Based on those numbers, logic says that The Revenant will win. I might be predicting with my heart on this one, but my gut says that Spotlight’s got what it takes eke out an upset. It’s the most broadly liked of the three, has won Critics’ Choice – where the demonstration of consensus tends to reflect Academy choices – and went on a late message-pushing tour for some needed gravitas on the campaign circuit. Yes, it lost PGA, but it seems like a bigger deal that The Revenant didn’t win there, since as a big-budget spectacle it ostensibly fits their taste better. And according to Deadline’s Pete Hammond, that race was ridiculously close anyway, an indication of just how tight this thing is. Spotlight was the frontrunner in September, and despite the twists and turns in a most unpredictable race, it’s stood its ground. That might just be enough.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Could Win: Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Be Nominated: Todd Haynes, Carol
The Big Short and Spotlight have failed to really take off this awards season in part because they lack prestige gloss, of the kind that characterizes the vast majority of recent Oscar champs. Spotlight is quiet and muted, while The Big Short is loud and messy. The Revenant, too, is outside Academy tastes for obvious reasons, but its craft is unimpeachably and overtly exceptional. Inarritu has effectively separated himself from the pack by presenting a visually admirable – and clear – cinematic achievement, and that’ll certainly push him through to a record-breaking second straight victory in this category.
As for why George Miller isn’t standing a chance here – I wish I knew.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Could Win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Should Win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Should Be Nominated: Michael B. Jordan, Creed
There’s a good number of critics who outright dismiss DiCaprio’s work in The Revenant, irritated by the fact that he’ll be winning for a performance that doesn’t near his best work. That’s just the way Oscar works, folks – and in a field this weak, it could have been much worse. (Matthew McConaughey beat Chiwetel Ejiofor just two years ago, for instance.) I count myself among those who aren’t quite sure why DiCaprio’s months of suffering is equating to awards season dominance (and sure, Michael Fassbender should win this in a walk for his fine turn in Steve Jobs), but I’m content to put this “overdue” stuff behind us – at least until next year’s cycle – in a category that arouses so little excitement anyway.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Could Win: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Should Win: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Should Be Nominated: Juliette Binoche, Clouds of Sils Maria
Best Actress, on the other hand, comprises four stellar performances this year: Saoirse Ronan, detailed and empathetic in Brooklyn; Brie Larson, tragic but strong in Room; Cate Blanchett, marvelously larger-than-life in Carol; and best of all Charlotte Rampling, enthrallingly subtle and piercingly honest in 45 Years. (The fifth is Jennifer Lawrence, who can’t quite keep up in Joy.) Larson has this down, and while we can quibble about the fact that neither Rampling nor Blanchett are even competitive here, it’s a fine representation of a standout category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Could Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies or Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Should Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Should Be Nominated: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
I look at this category and it’s hard not to get past the frustration of Idris Elba and Michael Shannon – who easily gave the strongest supporting male performances in film this year – getting overlooked. No matter, there’s still a lot to like here, if not fall head-over-heels for. Stallone should take this, though there remains the fairly substantial caveat that he is without any indication of industry support whatsoever. (Creed screeners didn’t get to SAG or BAFTA members in time.) Essentially, we have no idea how far ahead he is, if at all – and there are reports of Ruffalo and Rylance gaining steam – but we’ll take what’s been a steady awards season dominance at its promise: a comeback win for Rocky Balboa.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Could Win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Should Win: Rooney Mara, Carol
Should Be Nominated: Cynthia Nixon, James White
I’m not sure I totally get Vikander’s inevitability here; her consistent strength this awards season has likely manifested out of her breakout year across several different films. I’d hoped Rooney Mara would be more of a player here, but at this point it looks like Vikander’s sole challenger is Kate Winslet. While Mara is without a major statue, Winslet has now won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, making for a strong pair of victories. In any case, Vikander still has enough in the tank to push her out front when it counts the most.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will & Should Win: Spotlight, by Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will & Should Win: The Big Short, by Adam McKay & Charles Randolph
In both cases, there’s no competition, and in both cases, I’m perfectly content with that. Even if The Revenant wins Best Picture, it’ll be nice to see McCarthy and McKay take the stage for their respective achievements.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Will Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Anomalisa
Inside Out is a powerful, exemplary entrant in the Pixar canon, and it’ll make for a deserving winner. But I’d be lying if I wasn’t rooting for Charlie Kaufman’s masterful, utterly bizarre Anomalisa.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will & Should Win: Amy
Could Win: The Look of Silence
Should Be Nominated: The Hunting Ground
The tragic, intimate portrait of Amy will justly get its due after dominating the precursor circuit. But I wouldn’t mind seeing Joshua Oppenheimer’s The Look of Silence snag the prize, if only to make up for the egregious loss of his previous documentary, the blistering The Act of Killing.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Son of Saul
Could & Should Win: Mustang
Should Be Nominated: Phoenix and The Second Mother
The biggest story here is what’s not nominated: Christian Petzold’s swooning German melodrama Phoenix and Anna Muylaert’s brilliant Brazilian slice-of-life The Second Mother, among many others. I found Son of Saul, a first feature from Hungary, technically exemplary but also somewhat hollow and suffocating. It’s got this thing pinned down, regardless – even if France’s Mustang deserves to emerge victorious.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Carol
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Cinderella
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road or Carol
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: The Big Short
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will & Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will & Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST SCORE
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Carol
BEST SONG
Will & Should Win: “‘Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will & Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will & Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will & Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens