By the end of October last year, I had the eventual eight Best Picture Oscar nominees included in my top 12 contenders, and 80 percent of the eventual nominated actors already predicted. The race for Best Picture itself was wide-open, but each acting category was already down to two or three people, if not already locked-in, and by the end of November, even more seemed set-in-stone.
But this year is chaotic – it doesn’t look like there’s anything approaching a lock anywhere. Lead Actor is a mess: Leonardo DiCaprio-backers are roaring “it’s his time” in part because there’s a gaping vacancy at the front of the pack. Michael Fassbender’s Steve Jobs and Johnny Depp’s Black Mass have really lost steam. (Though the latter is working the circuit.) Eddie Redmayne, competing for The Danish Girl, just won, and is a little muted in a role bound to get attention but in a film that’s not faring too well with critics. Will Smith had a lot of buzz on his Concussion role, but the film whiffed at its premiere – a clear disadvantage. There’s Matt Damon, pleasant in The Martian; Tom Hanks, sturdy in Bridge of Spies; and Bryan Cranston, hammy in Trumbo – actors that look like nominees at best. Beyond that, there’s some hope: Samuel L. Jackson has a meaty Hateful Eight role, but this ensemble piece will make it hard for anyone to stand out. Maybe Creed really takes off, and Michael B. Jordan rides a wave of passion to a nod, and to a shot at Oscar gold. (One can hope.)
Indeed, DiCaprio’s got some better roles under his belt, but The Revenant – in which he gives a physically arduous, nearly dialogue-free performance that’s already polarizing critics – seems to be presenting him with his best shot at Oscar gold. The “overdue” narrative, regardless of how manufactured it may be, could create a consensus in the interest of not having to look too far beyond the mainstream. We’ll have a slightly better picture of the Best Actor race when the critics’ awards launch and Revenant reviews drop, but for now, it’s hard to imagine who else could really go all the way.
Best Actress, fortunately, tells a very different story. Two Oscar heavyweights, Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence, are a few steps behind Brie Larson in this contest. Larson has the sizable benefit here of being a fresh face in what’s likely to be an Oscar juggernaut; Blanchett and Lawrence, conversely, are off of very recent category wins. Blanchett has earned career-best reviews for Carol, and how much fight she’s got in this category will likely, largely depend on how well the film itself fares in the coming months. For Lawrence, the picture is even less certain: there’s precious little word on the movie to date, but buzz on her work is high and, well, David O. Russell has been known to get her in the thick of the conversation before.
As for how the rest of the category is likely to shake out: Saoirse Ronan is looking very good for Brooklyn, an indie that had a solid launch at Sundance and thrived upon its stateside release earlier this month. Ronan, an Oscar nominee a decade ago, is well-liked and the film is expected to at least contend for a Best Picture nomination. She’ll have to fend off a wave of veteran actresses in career-best roles: Blythe Danner in I’ll See You in My Dreams; Maggie Smith in The Lady in the Van; Lily Tomlin in Grandma; and Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years, a critics’ awards dark horse. I’d say the category will accommodate between one and two of these women, with Danner holding a slight edge given the movie’s performance and critical success, and the actress’ own reputation. There could also be room for Carey Mulligan of Suffragette, who’s been tremendous in a slew of roles over the past few years but has taken a long Oscar break since her auspicious debut, An Education.
The supporting categories are, predictably at this stage, all over the place. (Though, food for thought: I had last year’s Best Supporting Actress lineup predicted perfectly by November 1.) On the male side of things, Mark Rylance is a good bet for Bridge of Spies, and should probably be considered the frontrunner at this point given the film’s standing and his own stature within the industry. Jacob Tremblay could easily factor in for his scene-stealing work in Room, if the movie holds up well. Within the Spotlight ensemble, I’d say Michael Keaton is a likely nominee, Mark Ruffalo a possible one and Stanley Tucci – generating big applause at screenings – a dark horse. Paul Dano has been racking up nominations from indie guilds, and between that and likely a strong performance with critics’ groups, I’m hoping that’s enough for his very-worthy Love & Mercy performance to get a nod. But the movie is occupying an uncertain space, and he’s on the bubble.
And then, a flurry of contenders waiting in the wings: Robert De Niro of Joy, Tom Hardy of The Revenant, Joel Edgerton in Black Mass, Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation, Kurt Russell in The Hateful Eight, Benicio Del Toro in Sicario, Jason Mitchell in Straight Outta Compton and – looking increasingly likely, against all odds – Sylvester Stallone in Creed. And I’m really pulling for Michael Shannon, who’s been such a force on-screen over the last few years and has no hardware to show for it. His work in 99 Homes, a movie not likely to fare well elsewhere, is among his very best.
Best Supporting Actress is slightly clearer, if only because it’s substantially thinner. For one thing, the category’s two clear frontrunners right now are Alicia Vikander of The Danish Girl and Rooney Mara of Carol. Both are such obvious leads that the Hollywood Foreign Press – a bastion of awards-season pandering and corruption – has denied their requests to go supporting. Their clear dominance could crumble at any time; let’s not forget that Kate Winslet swept the circuit for The Reader in 2008 before an unexpected bump to Lead Actress.
But one reason these two are so out front is that this category is pretty anemic. I’m assuming, at this point, that Kate Winslet’s reliably excellent – but hardly exceptional – turn in Steve Jobs will snag a slot. Jane Fonda and Joan Allen have very limited screentime in Youth and Room, respectively, but they make the most of it, and at least one should get in given the shape of the field. If Love & Mercy pops a little bit in the next few months, Elizabeth Banks’ sizable and heartfelt role should also get a serious look. I’ve heard good advanced word on Jennifer Jason Leigh’s Hateful Eight transformation (and with a great animated role in Anomalisa, she’ll be all over the campaign trail), and if voters go nuts for Spotlight there’s enough to Rachel McAdams’ role where she might have a shot. Otherwise, the intrigue here is definitely in who could actually win this category. No Patricia Arquettes this year.
Best Picture is really lacking in terms of strong potential contenders. The frontrunner, at this point, has to be Spotlight, the beautifully composed and universally acclaimed docudrama from Tom McCarthy. But it seems far too subtle and quiet to snag the big award – the fact that it stands out so clearly as the frontrunner right now speaks volumes about the shape of the race. The Revenant is likely enough of a production – and with enough support behind it – to factor into the conversation, but it appears a little brutal and grimy for Academy tastes. It’s a possibility, but I don’t see it. Then there’s Room, Lenny Abrahamson’s little-indie-that-could, and Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies, a well-liked but hardly definitive entrant in the filmmaker’s canon. Both are likely to be big players. Neither seem like potential winners.
Talk on The Martian, Ridley Scott’s smart sci-fi epic, is building. It’s a resounding commercial success, a big critical hit and has some thematic weight pulling it along, but this is still a blockbuster, and one that lacks the snob appeal of, say, Gravity or even Scott’s own Gladiator. It’s affable and admirably low-key, but does that help it on the way to a win? Granted, this race could go in any number of directions given the lack of serious, strong competitors (in Oscar’s terms, at least). And I think Martian, at this point, is a reasonably good bet for a Best Picture (and perhaps a Director) nomination. But a win is still a ways away.
Then we get into those on the nomination bubble. The next tier, at least right now, appears to contain a pair of adored indies: John Crowley’s Brooklyn and Todd Haynes’ Carol. The former, as mentioned above, is an uplifting crowd-pleaser in the vein of Philomena, with a terrific performance from Saoirse Ronan at its center. Most years feature a Sundance darling that goes all the way, and this fits the mold nicely. On the other side of things is the chilly, swooning melodrama Carol, which while a little outside Academy tastes has some big advantages. For one thing, it’s – as of now – the best-reviewed film of the year, with a 95 score on Metacritic. It’s also guaranteed to be in the conversation to at least some extent, with its performances, cinematography and costume design almost certain to figure in. Finally, this is the movie that the Indie community appears to be rallying around: it’s the most-nominated film with the Indie Spirits and a big hit with Gotham (it, along with Spotlight and Tangerine, is the only film to get Best Picture noms from both organizations), and is doing huge business at the specialty box office. Its weaknesses are pretty clear (a Haynes movie has never been nominated), but this one has a good shot.
No one yet knows what to make of David O. Russell’s Joy or Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, neither of which have officially screened. There’s reason to be optimistic on both – between their last five movies is five nominations for Best Picture – but neither director has a 100 percent success rate, and there have been grumblings in both cases that these aren’t going to be huge awards successes. Still, they’re getting a run at it; with studios backing their campaigns, it’s hard to believe they’ll be out of the conversation entirely. And while neither reads like a “winner,” if they’re good enough, they could easily vault to that top tier of contenders.
Many expected Steve Jobs to play to win out of its New York premiere in October, but at this point, even a nomination might be out of reach. The film bombed at the box office – understatement? – and the movie, even if it has its champions, isn’t the critical darling that many others trying to figure in are. And there are several movies barging in that could snag its thunder. Ryan Coogler’s Creed has burst out of the gate with great reviews and record-breaking box office, and could be a major threat across several categories. Time will tell if it clicks with awards bodies. Conversely, it’s hard to say if Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl, coming out this week, has enough in the tank. The story of transgender pioneer Lili Elbe is sure to snag some acting recognition, and Hooper’s had good success with the Academy lately (even his critical misfire Les Miserables fit in comfortably). But I wonder if this is one that can cut through the noise. This field is muddled, and although it will play to a large contingent of voters, I’m not sure if The Danish Girl can rally the necessary support.
And, finally, the early-year sneakers: between the beloved blockbuster Mad Max: Fury Road, the animated gem Inside Out and the musically inclined Love & Mercy are several films that could jump right into this race and cause some disruption. It’s always harder for films not in the thick of the “season” to stick into the conversation, but as The Grand Budapest Hotel proved just last year, it’s not impossible. These three movies are all well-reviewed and will find support in certain corners. Seeing as Pixar greats have found success of late, Inside Out probably has the best chance of the three. But we’ve a long way to go yet.
Check out my full chart of Oscar predictions HERE.