Outstanding Drama Series
Last year’s winner Game of Thrones is safe along with departing Downton Abbey and strengthened sophomore Better Call Saul. Of freshmen, Mr. Robot is way out front with ample guild recognition, a key Golden Globe win and a convenient summer return date. Other newbies with chances (though they’re far lower) are Showtime’s Billions and Louis C.K.’s Horace and Pete – the former of which is on an Emmy-friendly network; the latter of which is boosted by intrigue alone; and both of which have star power to spare – and they’ll have to overtake a trio of tired but solid returnees, in House of Cards, Orange Is the New Black and Billions-network-mate Homeland. They’re weak enough to be snubbed, though, and so we’re going bold: The Americans will finally be nominated for Best Drama. For better or worse, you heard it here first. (Probably for worse, but one has to have faith when neither Rectify nor The Leftovers are even in the conversation.)
1 | Game of Thrones
2 | Downton Abbey
3 | Better Call Saul
4 | Mr. Robot
5 | House of Cards
6 | Orange Is the New Black
7 | The Americans
8 | Homeland
9 | Billions
10 | Horace and Pete
11 | The Good Wife
12 | The Leftovers
13 | Vinyl
14 | The Path
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
With reigning champ Jon Hamm out of the way, the lane appears to be cleared – finally – for Kevin Spacey. But acclaimed breakout Rami Malek and Critics’ Choice champ Bob Odenkirk might give him a run for his money, given House of Cards’ diminishing buzz. Otherwise, expect Emmy magnets Bobby Cannavale and Kyle Chandler to sneak in here despite their series’ relatively poor reviews, and watch for the last spot to go to one of three Showtimers: returning nominee Liev Schreiber on the otherwise non-registering Ray Donovan, or one of the Emmy-winning Billions adversaries, in Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis. We’ll go with Academy favorite Paul Giamatti.
1 | Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
2 | Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
3 | Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
4 | Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
5 | Bobby Cannavale, Vinyl
6 | Paul Giamatti, Billions
7 | Damian Lewis, Billions
8 | Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
9 | Aaron Paul, The Path
10 | Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
As of now, there’s no indication that Viola Davis – fresh off of her second straight SAG award – is anything but frontrunner after her groundbreaking Emmy win last year. Category regulars Robin Wright, Claire Danes and Julianna Margulies are primed to compete against her, and after that it gets a little tricky. Taraji P. Henson is theoretically safe, but Empire has lost its critical buzz and the Academy was never a big fan of the series to begin with. She should still have one more nomination in her, but she’s vulnerable. As for that sixth slot: support has been spotty over the years for nominees Michelle Dockery, Tatiana Maslany, Kerry Washington, Vera Farmiga and others – many or none of them could return as a result. But Keri Russell had a hell of a season on The Americans, and this might be the year that she finds an opening. Fingers crossed.
1 | Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
2 | Robin Wright, House of Cards
3 | Claire Danes, Homeland
4 | Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
5 | Taraji P. Henson, Empire
6 | Keri Russell, The Americans
7 | Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
8 | Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
9 | Kerry Washington, Scandal
10 | Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Peter Dinklage, Jonathan Banks, Jim Carter and Alan Cumming are all multi-nominees already, and there’s no indication that their streaks will stop this year. (Two are on concluding shows, even – a definite bonus.) Christian Slater is very well-positioned for Mr. Robot after winning both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globe, and considering that his series is likely to be a big hit with voters. Last year, Netflix’s Michael Kelly and Ben Mendelsohn were included in part because of increased screentime, but they’ll have a tough time repeating given their characters’ (especially Mendelsohn’s) receding to the background. We’d bet on a veteran here instead: Alan Alda for his startling if brief turn in Horace and Pete; Ray Romano’s surprisingly deep work in Vinyl; and Michael McKean’s beefed-up role in Better Call Saul are the likeliest candidates. We suspect a good chunk of voters have watched Saul, and will thus be inclined to give Michael McKean his due.
1 | Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
2 | Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
3 | Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
4 | Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
5 | Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
6 | Michael McKean, Better Call Saul
7 | Alan Alda, Horace and Pete
8 | Ray Romano, Vinyl
9 | Michael Kelly, House of Cards
10 | Hugh Dancy, The Path
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Oh how we hope voters get this one right. There’s a slew of returning nominees without much reason to be shortlisted once more. Uzo Aduba and Christine Baranski are wonderful, but didn’t get much material in their respective eligible seasons; Downton ladies Maggie Smith and Joanne Froggatt hardly deserve yet another one of these nods under their belt; and neither Lena Headey (who did have great material nonetheless) nor Emilia Clarke have had the screentime this season on Game of Thrones. While Aduba – adored among voters – and Baranski, for the final Good Wife season, are certain to return, a case can be made for the snubbing of any of the other four. Hopefully, they’re accurate, given the new competition. Maura Tierney, Regina King, Edie Falco and Maggie Siff – each already an underrated treasure to the medium – gave among the best performances of their respective careers in shiny new roles this season. Any could, and should, make it in. Oh, and there’s also the matter of Margo Martindale, who didn’t get to do much in The Good Wife but was in enough episodes to make the ballot. Remember, she was nominated and won for a single scene in The Americans last year. So yes, this one’s wide-open.
1 | Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
2 | Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
3 | Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
4 | Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
5 | Maura Tierney, The Affair
6 | Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
7 | Margo Martindale, The Good Wife
8 | Maggie Siff, Billions
9 | Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
10 | Edie Falco, Horace and Pete
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
To get this out of the way: shows can submit as few or as many episodes as they’d like in the writing and directing categories, as long as a writer/director or team of writers/directors is only represented once. In other words, the less you submit, the better chance you have of being nominated, since members tend to vote for shows over episodes, and thus a multitude of submissions can be counterproductive (due to vote-splitting). In addition, writers’ names are not even listed – while directors are printed on the ballots, writing submissions only have the episode name and series name listed. As can be gleaned from this analysis, these categories are generally extremely hard to predict, so take our predictions with a grain of salt.
Emmy hits Game of Thrones and Downton Abbey only submitted one episode apiece, a smart strategy that should pay off with easy nominations. The Americans earned its first major, non-Martindale nomination last year by taking this approach, and it’s done the same this time around with its acclaimed season finale. We hope it gets back in, and we think it will. And Mr. Robot only submitted its pilot, a strategy that has historically worked well for hot freshmen shows. These are the four we’re most confident on. Better Call Saul submitted a few, but its penultimate “Nailed” was easily the most acclaimed and talked-about of the bunch. Given the show’s popularity, it stands a good shot at making it through despite its overrepresentation on the ballot. It’ll need to fend off several singularly-represented shows, including The Good Wife (definitely in play for its divisive series finale), Horace and Pete and Billions. House of Cards submitted several episodes and was not even nominated in writing last year, so it’s likely to miss out once more.
1 | “Battle of the Bastards,” Game of Thrones
2 | “Part Eight,” Downton Abbey
3 | “Pilot,” Mr. Robot
4 | “Persona Non Grata,” The Americans
5 | “Nailed,” Better Call Saul
6 | “End,” The Good Wife
7 | “Episode 103,” Horace and Pete
8 | “Pilot,” Billions
9 | “Chapter 50,” House of Cards
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
We look at directors’ names a little more closely than we do writers’ since their names are printed on the ballot – and voters certainly have their favorites. Again, there’s show-checking to some extent, so the two big Game of Thrones episodes – its fourth and yet-to-air ninth episodes, directed by Daniel Sackheim and Miguel Sapochnik – are assured spots, especially since only one other one was submitted. But Steven Soderbergh should also be nominated for the otherwise-ignored The Knick, as he directs all of the episodes and is obviously a substantial name (and he was nominated last year), and Martin Scorsese remains a virtual lock for the maligned Vinyl. Emmy voters really love Lesli Linka Glatter too, a regular on Homeland who was included in this space just last year. Generally, the directing field includes a pilot or two, and Niels Arden Oplev's Mr. Robot seems the obvious choice in that regard. But is that it – case closed? Not quite. House of Cards, Better Call Saul and Downton Abbey are all well-known shows with the Academy that included a few too many episodes on the ballot for 2016. Each is popular enough, however, where it’s more than feasible to imagine one of their episodes garnering the necessary support. Or, in an alternate scenario, another pilot could surprise, like Showtime's Billions or Hulu’s flashy The Path.
1 | “Battle of the Bastards,” Game of Thrones
2 | “Book of the Stranger,” Game of Thrones
3 | "Pilot," Vinyl
3 | "Pilot," Vinyl
4 | “This Is All We Are,” The Knick
5 | “Pilot,” Mr. Robot
6 | “The Tradition of Hospitality," Homeland
7 | “Nailed,” Better Call Saul
8 | “Pilot,” Billions
9 | “Part Nine,” Downton Abbey